ABSTRAK ...........................................................

DAFTAR lSI
ABSTRAK................................................................................................
ABSTRACT...............................................................................................
ii
KATA PENGANTAR ...............................................................................
iii
DAFTAR 181..............................................................................................
v
DAFTAR GAMBAR..................................................................................
viii
DAFTAR TABEL.......................................................................................
ix
DAFTARLAMPIRAN .............................................................................
X
DAB I. PENDAHULUAN ...................................................................... .
I. I. Latar Belakang .........................................................................
1.2. Perumusan Masalah .................................................................
7
1.3. Tujuan Penelitian .....................................................................
7
1.4. Manfaat Penelitian ...................................................................
8
BAD 1L TINJAUAN PUSTAKA............................................................
9
2.1. Teori Neraca Perdagangan .......................................................
9
2.2. Teori Neraca Jasa .....................................................................
15
2.3. Teori Neraca Transaksi BeJjalan..............................................
17
2.4. Teori Arus Modal Masuk ..................................... ~..................
22
2.5. Kebijakan Neraca Pembayaran ................................................
26
2.6. Neraca Pembayaran Dan Derajat Mobilitas Modal.................
30
2.6.a. Teori Klasik....................................................................
32
2.6.b. Teori Keynesian.............................................................
33
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2.6.c. Teori Portofolio...............................................................
35
2.6.d. Perubahan Nilai Tukar Mata Uang .................................
35
2.6.e. Neraca Pembayaran Dan Sektor Moneter ......................
40
2.7. PenelitianTerdahulu...............................................................
42
2.8.
Kerangka Pemikiran...............................................................
45
2.9.
Hipotesis Penelitian................................................................
45
BAB IU. METODE PENELITIAN .......................................................
47
3.1. Ruang Lingkup Penelitian .......................................................
47
3.2. Jenis dan Sumber data..............................................................
47
3.3. ModeiAnalisis.........................................................................
48
3.4. Uji Penyimpangan Asumsi Klasik ..........................................
51
3.4.1. Uji Multikolieritas...........................................................
51
3.4.2. Uji Normalitas ................................................................
52
3.4.3. Uji Autokorelasi..............................................................
52
3.5. Defenisi dan Batasan Operasional...........................................
53
BAB IV. ANALISIS DAN PEMBAHASAN .........................................
55
Perkembangan Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia......................
55
4.2.. Perkembangan Neraca Transaksi Betjalan.............................
57
4.2.1. Perkembangan Neraca Pembayaran.....................................
60
4.3. Perkembangan Ekspor Indonesia.............................................
60
4.3.1
Perkembangan Impor Indonesia............................................
62
4.4.
Perkembangan Arus Modal Indonesia..................................
63
4.4.1. Perkembangan Neraca Jasa................................................
63
4.1.
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4.4.2. Perkembangan Neraca Modal...........................................
64
4.5. Hasil Estimasi Model dan Analisis..........................................
67
Hasil Estimasi Model dan analisis Ekspor ......................
67
4.5.2. Hasil Uji Penyimpangan ldasik.......................................
71
4.5.2.a. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas.............................................
71
4.5.2.b.Hasil Uji Autokorelasi.....................................................
72
4.5.3.c. Hasil Uji Normalitas.......................................................
73
4.5.3. Hasil Estimasi dan Analisis Impor ..................................
74
4.5.4. Hasil Uji Penyimpangan Klasik.....................................
78
4.2.3. Hasil Estimasi Arus Modal.............................................
81
4.2.3.1. Hasil Uji Penyimpangan Klasik.....................................
86
DAB V. KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN................................................
90
4.5.1
5.1
Kesimpulan ..............................................................................
90
5.2.
Saran.........................................................................................
91
DAFfAR PUSTAKA..............................................................................
93
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