Projection of Population in Jakarta

Water Resource Management in Jakarta Based
on Climate Change
By:
Armi Susandi, Atika Lubis, Rusmawan Suwarman,
Mamad Tamamadin, Sepanie Putiamini
OUTLINE
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Introduction
Objective
Methodology
Result and Analysis
Adaptation Option Suggested
References
Introduction
• Global climate change causes many areas in Indonesia to
be vulnerable on its impacts.
• DKI Jakarta is recently and in the future in crowded
population.
• Climate change causes pattern of rainfall and effect to
frequency and intensity of rainfall in Jakarta.
• Subsidence of water level is happened in aquifer ground.
Objectives
• To identify projection of rainfall and other parameters
regarding to the water resources in Jakarta.
• To estimate Jakarta’s water reserve in the future.
• To conceive the climate change adaptation solving the
water resource management in Jakarta.
Flow Chart of
The Research
Geological
map
Climatolog
y Data
Ground Types
Map
Infiltration
factor (K)
rainfall
Land Use
Map
Evapotranspiration
Populatio
n Data
Projection of
Population
WS=CH-Ep
Water Needs
I=K x WS
Subsidence Map
Water reserve=
I x A (Population Area)
Analysis of Water Reserve
Rainfall Projection
Infiltration in Jakarta
Water Reserve in Jakarta
Adaptation option to water
resource management in Jakarta
PROJECTION OF
MEAN RAINFALL IN WET MONTHS OVER
JAKARTA
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
mm
600
568
532
496
460
424
388
352
Projection of
Rainfall in
Jakarta
(Wet Months
2010)
316
280
244
208
172
136
100
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2035
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
mm
600
568
532
496
460
424
388
352
Projection of
Rainfall in
Jakarta
(Wet Months
2015)
316
280
244
208
172
136
100
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2035
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
mm
600
568
532
496
460
424
388
352
Projection of
Rainfall in
Jakarta
(Wet Months
2020)
316
280
244
208
172
136
100
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2035
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
mm
600
568
532
496
460
424
388
352
Projection of
Rainfall in
Jakarta
(Wet Months
2025)
316
280
244
208
172
136
100
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2035
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
mm
600
568
532
496
460
424
388
352
Projection of
Rainfall in
Jakarta
(Wet Months
2030)
316
280
244
208
172
136
100
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2035
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
mm
600
568
532
496
460
424
388
352
Projection of
Rainfall in
Jakarta
(Wet Months
2035)
316
280
244
208
172
136
100
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
2035
PROJECTION OF POPULATION IN
JAKARTA
Population in Jakarta (1972)
AIR/SUNGAI
FASILITAS UMUM
LAHAN TERBUKA
PEMUKIMAN
RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT
SAWAH
VEGETASI
Population in Jakarta (1983)
AIR/SUNGAI
FASILITAS UMUM
LAHAN TERBUKA
PEMUKIMAN
RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT
SAWAH
VEGETASI
Population in Jakarta (1993)
AIR/SUNGAI
FASILITAS UMUM
LAHAN TERBUKA
PEMUKIMAN
RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT
SAWAH
VEGETASI
Population in Jakarta (1998)
AIR/SUNGAI
FASILITAS UMUM
LAHAN TERBUKA
PEMUKIMAN
RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT
SAWAH
VEGETASI
Population in Jakarta (2002)
AIR/SUNGAI
FASILITAS UMUM
LAHAN TERBUKA
PEMUKIMAN
RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT
SAWAH
VEGETASI
Projection of Population in Jakarta
(2010)
AIR/SUNGAI
FASILITAS UMUM
LAHAN TERBUKA
PEMUKIMAN
RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT
SAWAH
VEGETASI
Sum up of population:
8,981,200 people
Source: Bappenas, BPS,
UNPF, 2005
Projection of Population in Jakarta
(2015)
AIR/SUNGAI
FASILITAS UMUM
LAHAN TERBUKA
PEMUKIMAN
RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT
SAWAH
VEGETASI
Sum up of population:
9,168,500 people
Source: Bappenas, BPS,
UNPF, 2005
Projection of Population in Jakarta
(2020)
AIR/SUNGAI
FASILITAS UMUM
LAHAN TERBUKA
PEMUKIMAN
RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT
SAWAH
VEGETASI
Sum up of population:
9,262,600 people
Source: Bappenas, BPS,
UNPF, 2005
Projection of Population in Jakarta
(2025)
AIR/SUNGAI
FASILITAS UMUM
LAHAN TERBUKA
PEMUKIMAN
RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT
SAWAH
VEGETASI
Sum up of population:
9,259,900 people
Source: Bappenas, BPS,
UNPF, 2005
Projection of Population in Jakarta
(2030)
AIR/SUNGAI
FASILITAS UMUM
LAHAN TERBUKA
PEMUKIMAN
RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT
SAWAH
VEGETASI
Sum up of population:
9,533,550 people
Source: Bappenas, BPS,
UNPF, 2005
Projection of Population in Jakarta
(2035)
AIR/SUNGAI
FASILITAS UMUM
LAHAN TERBUKA
PEMUKIMAN
RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT
SAWAH
VEGETASI
Sum up of population:
9,715,575 people
Source: Bappenas, BPS,
UNPF, 2005
Projection of Land Use and Water Rain Absorbent
Land in Jakarta
Area (km2)
Landuse
2010
2015
2020
2025
Swamp
30.53
27.01
11.5
5.74
Open land
6.86
6.32
6.67
3.27
Farm
7.75
0.5
0.92
0.3
Public facility
6.71
6.32
6.86
6.29
Vegetation
71.98
64.24
37.08
21.75
Shelter
526.17
544.91
586.96
612.65
98.07
56.17
31.06
Absorbent Land
117.12
Decrease of Absorbent Land in Jakarta
15.62%
16%
13.08%
Absorbent Land
14%
12%
7.49%
10%
8%
4.14%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2010
2015
2020
Year
2025
Subsidence in 1982 - 1991
(Hasanuddin,
2008)
Subsidence in 1991 - 1997
(Hasanuddin,
2008)
Projection of water reserve in Jakarta contributed by
Rainfall Infiltration
2,500
mm3/day/person
2014.13
1773.96
2,000
1417.56
1,500
766.85
1,000
500
0
2009-2010
2011-2015
2016-2020
Year
2021-2025
Comparison between Water Need and Water
Supply
• Need of water per person in Jakarta is up to 175 liter/day (Kompas,
2005).
Percentage of contribution
from infiltration water to water
need
11.5%
12%
10.1%
8.1%
10%
8%
6%
4.4%
4%
2%
0%
2009-2010
2011-2015
2016-2020
Year
2021-2025
ADAPTATION OPTIONS SUGGESTED TO JAKARTA
Jakarta map is also embedded by index of
climate change vulnerability
From South Area
2010
Index of Climate
Change Vulnerability
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
Development:
1. Water Resource
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
From South Area
2015
Index of Climate
Change Vulnerability
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
Development:
0.6
1. Water Resource
0.5
2. Water Collector
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
From South Area
2020
Index of Climate
Change Vulnerability
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
Development:
0.6
1. Water Resource
0.5
2. Water Collector
0.4
3. Polder
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
From South Area
2025
Index of Climate
Change Vulnerability
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
Development:
0.6
1. Water Resource
0.5
2. Water Collector
0.4
3. Polder
0.3
4. Networking Pipes
0.2
0.1
0
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
From South Area
2030
Index of Climate
Change Vulnerability
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
Development:
0.6
1. Water Resource
0.5
2. Water Collector
0.4
3. Polder
0.3
4. Networking Pipes
0.2
0.1
5. More Pipes &
Polder
0
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
From South Area
2035
Index of Climate
Change Vulnerability
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
Development:
0.6
1. Water Resource
0.5
2. Water Collector
0.4
3. Polder
0.3
4. Networking Pipes
0.2
0.1
5. More Pipes &
Polder
0
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
References
• Susandi, et al., 2009, Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta,
National Council on Climate Change Republic of Indonesia.
• Hasanuddin, et al., 2008, Land Subsidence Characteristics of the
Jakarta Basin (Indonesia) as estimated from Leveling, GPS and
InSAR and its Environmental Impacts, Mini-Symposium: Flood Risk
and Adaptation in Jakarta, ITB.
• Badan Pusat Statistik, 2005, “Projection of Population in Jakarta”.
THANK YOU!