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ABSTRAK
FITRIWATI. Pengaruh Kebijakan Moneter dan Kebijakan Perdagangan
Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Melalui Ekspor dan Investasi Sektor
Perkebunan Di Indonesia Tahun 1984-2003. (Dibimbing oleh Muhammad
Yunus Zain dan Didi Rukmana.)
Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan moneter dan
kebijakan perdagangan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui ekspor dan
investasi sektor perkebunan di Indonesia.
Data yang dianalisis adalah data sekunder berbentuk time series dari
tahun 1984-2003 yaitu kebijakan moneter yang terdiri dari jumlah uang beredar,
tingkat bunga, exchange rate dan kebijakan perdagangan yaitu pajak ekspor,
ekspor sektor perkebunan dan investasi 7 komoditas utama sektor perkebunan
serta data pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Analisis data menggunakan
metode estimasi regresi persamaan simultan (SEM) Structural Equation
Modeling.
Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa secara simultan jumlah uang beredar,
tingkat bunga, exchange rate dan pajak ekspor berpengaruh signifikan terhadap
pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui ekspor dan investasi sektor perkebunan. Secara
parsial jumlah uang beredar dan exchange rate berpengatuh positif dan
signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat bunga berpengaruh negatif
dan signifikan, pajak ekspor berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan. Kemudian,
ekspor dan investasi berpengaruh positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap
pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia.
ABSTRACT
FITRIWATI. The effect of monetary and trade policy on economic growth
through export and investment agriculture sector in Indonesia period
1984-2003 (Superrised of Muhammad Yunus Zain and Didi Rukmana).
The study aims at analyzing the effect of monetary and trade policy on
economic growth through agriculture sector export and investment in Indonesia.
The secondary d that are analyzed in term of time series from 1984-2003,
i.e. monetary policy variabels consist of money supply, interest rate, exchange
rate, and trade policy variabels consist of export tax, seven (7) top export
commodities and investment in agriculture sector as well as data of economic
growth. The method of Simultan Equation Estimation (SEM) is used for analyzing
the data.
The result finding shows that, simultaneously money supply, interest rate,
exchange rate, export tax through export and investment in aqriculture sector
have significant effect on the economic growth. Partially, money supply and
exchange rate have also positive and significant effect. In adition, interest rate
has a negative and significant effect, while export tax has a negative and
insignificant, export and investment agriculture sector have a positif and
insignificant effect on economic growth.
ABSTRACT
FITRIWATI. The effect of monetary and trade policy on economic growth
through export and investment agriculture sector in Indonesia period
1984-2003 (Superrised of Muhammad Yunus Zain and Didi Rukmana).
The study aims at analyzing the effect of monetary and trade policy on
economic growth through agriculture sector export and investment in Indonesia.
The analyzed data is time series from 1984-2003, i.e monetary policy
consist of money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, and trade policy consist of
export tax, export agriculture sector, investment agriculture sector as well as data
of economic growth in Indonesia. The method of Simultan Equation Estimation
(SEM) is used for analyzing the data.
The result of this research indicates that simultaneously money supply,
interest rate, exchange rate, export tax through export and investment
agriculture sector have the significant effect on the economic growth. Partially
money supply and exchange rate have also positive and significant effect. In
adition, interest rate has a negative and significant effect, while export tax has a
negative and insignificant, export and investment agriculture sector have a positif
and insignificant effect on economic growth.