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Statistical Shipbuilding Assembly Procedure

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Quality and Reliability Engineering International
SPECIAL ISSUE ARTICLE
Statistical Procedure for Panel Block Assembly in
Shipbuilding
Deborah Otero1
Ricardo Cao2
Vicente Blasco3
Álvaro Brage3
Javier Tarrío-Saavedra2
Salvador Naya2
1
Unidade Mixta de Investigación Navantia-Universidade da Coruña, Ferrol, Spain 2 Grupo MODES, Departamento de Matemáticas, CITIC, Universidade da
Coruña, A Coruña, Spain 3 Dimensional Control and Alignment, Navantia, Ferrol, Spain
Correspondence: Javier Tarrío–Saavedra ([email protected])
Received: 22 October 2023
Revised: 6 November 2024
Accepted: 7 November 2024
Funding: This research was supported by GAIN (Xunta de Galicia) and Navantia company (SEPI), in the framework of the UDC - Navantia joint Research Unit,
with the project “Shipyard 4.0. The Shipyard of the Future” and Centro Mixto de Investigación (CEMI) Navantia-UDC, with reference IN853C 2022/01. This
research has been also supported by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación grant PID2020-113578RB-100 and PID2023-147127OB-I00, the Ministry for Digital
Transformation and Civil Service under Grant TSI-100925-2023-1, the Xunta de Galicia (Grupos de Referencia Competitiva ED431C-2020-14 and ED431C
2024/014), and by the CITIC, also funded by the Xunta de Galicia through the collaboration agreement between the Consellería de Cultura, Educación,
Formación Profesional e Universidades and the Galician universities for the reinforcement of the research centers of the Galician University System, CIGUS,
with reference ED431G 2023/01. Funding for open access charge: Universidade da Coruña/CISUG.
Keywords: block assembly | panel block | probability | sensitivity analysis | shipbuilding | statistical modeling | statistical simulation
ABSTRACT
A statistical procedure to estimate the probability of successful sliding of transverse elements through the longitudinals in
shipbuilding panel block assembly is proposed. It consists of developing a custom statistical solution to control the quality of
shipbuilding block assembly process, which helps to meet the requirements of production time, cost, and resources consumption.
This proposal addresses a critical shipbuilding challenge: the panel block assembly process, which involves inserting transverse
pieces through panels containing longitudinal components. This statistical procedure estimates the probability of successful block
assembly before the process starts, taking into account inputs such as panel dimensions, panel structure, and transverse stiffener.
A comprehensive simulation study has been performed to evaluate the statistical procedure performance. In addition, an actual
database obtained from Navantia shipyards has been used to obtain information about the mean values and dispersion of the
block assembly parameters. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is applied in order to obtain information about the most critical inputs
for process improvement. This statistical tool proposes an alternative to evaluate the proficiency of shipyards to perform panel
block assembly process during the vessel construction. The identification of those critical variables in the panel assembly process
and the quantification of their influence in the studied process are goals that have been also achieved.
1
Introduction
Shipbuilding has experimented important changes over the last
decades due to the increasing market competition [1, 2] and
the upcoming of the so called Industry 4.0, involved to industry
digitalization [3–5], stressing those dealing with robotics and IoT
[6], augmented reality [7], simulation [8], artificial intelligence,
big data and analytics [9, 10]. In this framework, shipyards
have to improve continuously their products, processes and
production facilities. Specifically, this study has developed under
the “Dimensional Control Project”, in the framework of Joint
Research Unit Navantia - University of A Coruña [11–13], where
statistical tools are applied in order to automate and improve
the shipbuilding production process, in which metrology plays a
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original
work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
© 2024 The Author(s). Quality and Reliability Engineering International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 2025; 41:689–703
https://doi.org/10.1002/qre.3691
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Shipbuilding is one of the most complex production systems in
industry because of the huge diversity and number of elements
involved in the production process [2, 16–20]. In fact, vessels
consist of numerous parts, blocks and subsystems. Moreover,
nowadays, shipyards work at the request of the clients. Given
the great variety of needs that customers have, the design of
each boat is different from the previous one. This way of doing
makes the degree of shipbuilding automation much lower than
in other industries such as automotive. Indeed, unifying all the
processes and production line techniques that are applied in the
different intermediate products is not seen currently possible.
Assuming the large number of sources of variability involved
in not automated processes, it is absolutely necessary to implement procedures to ensure the quality of actions and products
[21]. Therefore, performing quality control during assembly in
shipbuilding is extremely recommended, since improving the
accuracy through the production process is the most effective way
to improve results [22, 23].
In the shipbuilding industry, accuracy improvement is performed
by applying statistical techniques to control, monitor and continuously improve production design and standardized working
methods [9, 24–30]. The aim is to reduce the process variation and
maximize the productivity [31]. The improvement of the accuracy
in vessel production allows to simplify the processes, eliminating
accumulated errors corresponding to the early fabrication and
assembly stages, minimizing the need of skilled staff, and thus
promoting mechanization and ship quality increasing [22, 23].
One of the most complex and critical steps in vessel production
is the fitting of transverse elements during the panel block
assembly process [2, 32]. This process requires a high dimensional
accuracy and precision, only possible through an exhaustive
control of those more critical dimensions and an adequate process
design. Indeed, the proposal of a statistical methodology that
identifies the most influential variables in the process accuracy
and precision is absolutely necessary in order to define a proper
design for the panel block assembly process. Accordingly, the
aim of this paper is to provide a statistical methodology for
the analysis and improvement of this process, that estimates
the probability of correct panel block assembly from the original block dimensions and, moreover, allows to identify those
most influencing variables and their effects over block assembly
probability.
In order to illustrate the present proposal, a real case study
of panel block assembly in the Navantia shipyard (Ferrol, NW
Spain) has been performed and shown. The main activity of
the shipyards analyzed in this study is the design and build of
warships and their control systems. Specialized in the custom
manufacturing of one-of-a-kind vessels, Navantia factory in
Ferrol is considered as an international reference shipyard. This
specialization needs the introduction of automated and flexible
systems of manufacturing, which can be easily reconfigurable.
This shipyard is now in a transformation process to improve production processes and modernizing its manufacturing facilities.
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Its aim is to get more automated or robotized processes through
the implementation of digital production control systems. Thus,
improvement of the quality, and reduction in costs and working
time are intended. These are also the aims of the present proposal,
applied to this specific case study. It consists on developing a
statistical procedure that allows estimating the probability of
sliding the transverse elements through the longitudinals at the
beginning of the panel block assembly process.
This work is organized as follows. In the Section 2, the panel
block assembly process developed in the case study shipyard
is described in detail. The statistical procedure developed to
estimate the probability of correct assembly of longitudinal and
transverse elements in the framework of the panel block assembly
process is presented in Section 3. In Section 4, a comprehensive
simulation study is included to evaluate the proposed statistical
methodology. In addition, a real case study is presented where the
proposed statistical procedure is applied to real data provided by
the shipyard. Finally, Section 5 contains the results of a sensitivity
analysis. It has been performed to identify those more influential
dimensional variables in the panel block assembly process on
the probability of correct assembly. This provides important
information for process improvement.
2
Panel Block Assembly Process Analysis
There are different panel block assembly methods [23] in accordance with each shipyard. Among all those methods, the panel
assembly procedure is the standard and most popular method
for panel block assembly [33, 34]. Taking into account the wide
variety of methods, it is necessary to describe the current panel
block assembly process (see Figure 1) in our case study shipyard.
The panel block assembly process begins in the panel assembly
line. This line is one of the most important processes in the
shipyard. Ship panels, steel plates butt-welded together with
longitudinal stiffeners, are the basic building blocks of well over
60% of the interim products of typical commercial ships [35].
The steel plates, coming from main storage of shipyard, are
cut in a plasma cutting machine. They have to meet all the
required specifications in order to be assembled at the flat panel
assembly line. The process begins by joining and welding the
steel plates with one-sided welding technology to form a flat
panel. Afterward, the positions of the longitudinal stiffeners are
marked. Those positions are to be free of primer paint and
oxides. Thus, previously, those positions of the flat panel have
been grit blasted. The next step is the fitting and welding of the
longitudinals. The first longitudinal is fitted manually. Then the
following longitudinals are automatically fitted on the flat panel.
The longitudinals are fitted parallel to each other in the same
direction, with a right distance between them. It should be noted
that the flat panel assembly line is probably the most automated
line in the shipyard.
Once the previous process is finished, transverse elements are
fitted to the panel, which results in a panel block. This process is
almost impossible to be automated since there are not two equal
panel blocks in vessel projects in shipbuilding industry, and even
the transverse elements are defined by different geometries.
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critical role. In fact, this project involves measurements acquisition and traceability study, including also the selection of critical
variables, choice of measurement instruments, and everything
dealing with the plates and block dimensional control [14, 15].
Panel block assembly process.
FIGURE 2
Illustrative information about the the block assembly process (right) and detail of the assembly between longitudinal and slot, which
are part of panel and transverse items, respectively.
The sliding of transverses through the longitudinals is one the
most difficult and critical steps in the panel block assembly
process. This is due to the scallops of the transverses are very
narrow, in addition to the different errors which can occur
during the panel assembly procedure. Specifically, the transverses
have a gap with a minimal clearance of 1.5 mm (see Figure 2).
Therefore, the width of scallops in each transverse is the thickness
of longitudinal plus 3 mm (1.5 mm each side). Furthermore, in
the panel assembly process can take place different dimensional
errors due to five factors: raw materials, cutting, fitting, welding,
and straightening after welding [33, 36].
The above mentioned process errors can produce many reworks
and a bottleneck in the production. In fact, the pushing of the
transverses over the longitudinals depends on the built-in quality.
When this task is achieved, the accuracy of the panel block can be
regarded as being assured.
This work shows the specific case study described in Figure 2b, in
which the block assembly is performed between two main pieces,
panel, and transverse. This specific case sakes for illustrating
the statistical procedure proposed, which can be extended to
more complex pieces. In addition, in order to show from the
very beginning those dimensional variables that define panel and
transverse in the framework of Navantia company, the schemes
of panel (composed of four longitudinals) and transverse jointly
which the corresponding measurements taken by the shipyard
are included in Figure 3. Moreover, Figure 4 shows two details
of panel–transverse assembly, including the measurements of
which depends the proposed statistical process. These dimensional measurements are taken from the shipyard databases
records in order to help to develop a statistical procedure to
estimate the clearance panel-transverse and thus the probability
of successful assembly. All these dimensional variables, which
are assumed critical to block assembly quality, are described in
next sections.
3
Description of the Statistical Methodology
Any work process composed of repeatable actions, without
changes in the facilities and skills of the workers, provides
products defined by variable characteristics that can be modeled
as random variables. Further, the measurements obtained for any
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FIGURE 1
In the framework of the present case study, measurements recorded by the shipyard for panel and transverse elements are shown.
FIGURE 4
Panel and transverse dimensional variables that are used in the block assembly statistical procedure for estimating the clearance paneltransverse and the probability of successful assembly.
work process, when plotted by frequency of occurrence versus
magnitude, generally follows the Gaussian distribution [37]. The
proposed statistical procedure assumes independent observations
and Gaussian distribution for all the process variables, but Gaussianity could be relaxed if more plausible distribution models can
be formulated based on empirical data.
We start by defining a simple model to estimate the probability
to slide the transverse elements through the longitudinals at
the beginning of the process. We assume that the flat panel is
flat, the scallops are perfectly perpendicular and have sufficient
height. In addition, the number of longitudinals and the scallops
is considered to be constant. Let π‘Ÿ be the number of longitudinals
or scallops.
In the following, a description of the assumptions about the
variables of the model is presented. In order to help to illustrate
the study case, an overview of these variables, including the
corresponding symbol and a short description, is presented in
Table 1. Firstly, the random variables that define the panel
are described for more information see Figure 4. Namely, let
𝑋𝑖 be the distance from base edge to left edge of the 𝑖-th
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TABLE 1
Symbol
Meaning of variables of the statistical procedure.
Description
𝑋1
Distance from base edge to the first longitudinal
πœ‰π‘–
Distance between longitudinals
𝐿1
Panel width
πœƒπ‘–
Inclination of the longitudinals
π‘Œ1,1
Distance from the edge to the first slit on transverse
Δ𝑖
Scallop width of the transverse
πœ‚π‘–
Distance between two adjacent scallops
𝐿2
Transverse width
longitudinal, with 𝑖 = 1, … , π‘Ÿ. It is assumed that the distance
from base edge to the first longitudinal, 𝑋1 , and the distance
between longitudinals, πœ‰π‘– = 𝑋𝑖+1 − 𝑋𝑖 , with 𝑖 = 2, … , π‘Ÿ − 1, can
be approximated by 𝑋1 ∼ 𝑁(𝑒 + πœ‡1 , 𝜎1 ) and πœ‰π‘– ∼ 𝑁(𝑑 + πœ‡2 , 𝜎2 ),
respectively, where 𝑒 is the nominal distance from base edge
to the first longitudinal and 𝑑 is the nominal distance between
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FIGURE 3
Meaning of the parameters of the statistical procedure, in terms of mean and standard deviation.
Parameter description
Related dimensional
variables
πœ‡1
Mean of the distance from the first longitudinal line to the ridge
𝑋1
πœ‡2
Mean of the difference between the actual value and the nominal value of the distance
between longitudinals (hypothesis that πœ‡2 = 0 is really accepted)
πœ‰π‘–
πœ‡3
Mean of the width of the panel (assumed equal to 0)
𝐿1
πœ‡4
Mean of the difference between the actual and nominal values of the distance from the
beginning to the end of the first notch
Δ𝑖
πœ‡5
Mean of the difference between actual and nominal value of the distance from the end of
one notch to the beginning of the next one (πœ‡5 = 0 is assumed)
πœ‚π‘–
πœ‡6
Mean of the difference between the actual and nominal values of the distance from the
edge to the beginning of the 𝑖−th notch (πœ‡6 = 0 is assumed)
π‘Œ1,𝑖
πœ‡7
Transverse piece width mean (πœ‡7 = 0 is assumed)
𝐿2
πœ‡8
Mean of the difference between real and nominal value of the angle formed by the
longitudinal elements with the horizontal plane
πœƒπ‘–
𝜎1
Standard deviation of the distance from the first longitudinal line to the ridge
𝑋1
𝜎2
Standard deviation of the difference between the actual value and the nominal value of
the distance between longitudinals (𝜎2 = 0 is really accepted)
πœ‰π‘–
𝜎3
Standard deviation of the width of the panel (𝜎3 = 0 is assumed)
𝐿1
𝜎4
Standard deviation of the difference between the actual and nominal values of the
distance from the beginning to the end of the first notch
Δ𝑖
𝜎5
Standard deviation of the difference between actual and nominal value of the distance
from the end of one notch to the beginning of the next one (𝜎5 = 0 is assumed)
πœ‚π‘–
𝜎6
Standard deviation of the difference between the actual and nominal values of the
distance from the edge to the beginning of the 𝑖−th notch
π‘Œ1,𝑖
𝜎7
Transverse piece width standard deviation (𝜎7 = 0 is assumed)
𝐿2
𝜎8
Standard deviation of the difference between real and nominal value of the angle formed
by the longitudinal elements with the horizontal plane
πœƒπ‘–
Parameter
the left sides of each pair of adjacent longitudinals. In addition,
πœ‡1 is the mean of the distance from the first longitudinal line
to the ridge, whereas πœ‡2 is the mean of the difference between
the actual value and the nominal value of the distance between
longitudinals, being 𝜎1 and 𝜎2 are the corresponding standard
deviations (the value of these parameters can be estimated from
retrospective datasets in Navantia, see Table 2). Moreover, let 𝐿1
be the panel width approximated by 𝐿1 ∼ 𝑁(𝐿 + πœ‡3 , 𝜎3 ), where 𝐿
is the nominal panel width, πœ‡3 and 𝜎3 the mean and standard
deviation of the panel width (see Table 2). Furthermore, let
πœƒπ‘– , for 𝑖 = 1, … , π‘Ÿ, be the inclination of the 𝑖-th longitudinal,
in other words, the angle of the 𝑖-th longitudinal with respect
to the flat panel. Taking into account that the angle of the
πœ‹
longitudinals with the flat panel is approximately equal to , πœƒπ‘– ≃
πœ‹
πœ‹
2
, for 𝑖 = 1, … , π‘Ÿ, thus it is also assumed that πœƒπ‘– ∼ 𝑁( + πœ‡8 , 𝜎8 ),
2
2
where πœ‡8 and 𝜎8 are the mean and standard deviation of the
difference between real and nominal value of the angle formed
by the longitudinal elements with respect to the horizontal plane
(Table 2).
Regarding the transverse elements, let [π‘Œπ‘–,1 , π‘Œπ‘–,2 ] be the distances
from edge to the beginning and end of the 𝑖-th slot, with 𝑖 =
1, … , π‘Ÿ. Then, Δ𝑖 = π‘Œπ‘–,2 − π‘Œπ‘–,1 , with 𝑖 = 1, … , π‘Ÿ, is the scallop width
of the transverse. This random variable is normally distributed
according to Δ𝑖 ∼ 𝑁(π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4 , 𝜎4 ), where 𝛿 is the nominal
minimal clearance in the nominal gap around stiffener cut-out
and π‘Ž is the web thickness of longitudinals. In addition, πœ‡4 and
𝜎4 are the mean and standard deviation (respectively) of the
difference between the actual and nominal values of the distance
from the beginning to the end of the notch. On the other hand,
the distance between longitudinals, 𝑑, is approximately equal
to 𝑑 ≃ π‘Œπ‘–+1,1 − π‘Œπ‘–,2 + π‘Ž + 2𝛿. Hence, if πœ‚π‘– = π‘Œπ‘–+1,1 − π‘Œπ‘–,2 , for 𝑖 =
1, … , π‘Ÿ − 1, is the distance between two adjacent scallops, then
πœ‚π‘– ≃ 𝑑 − 2𝛿 − π‘Ž. In this way, the model assumes that πœ‚π‘– ∼ 𝑁(𝑑 −
2𝛿 − π‘Ž + πœ‡5 , 𝜎5 ). The πœ‡5 and 𝜎5 parameters are the mean and
standard deviation of the difference between actual and nominal
value of the distance from the end of one notch to the beginning
of the next one. Moreover, the distance from the edge to the
first slit on transverse, π‘Œ1,1 ≃ 𝑒 − 𝛿, is approximated by a normal
distribution with mean 𝑒 − 𝛿 + πœ‡6 and standard deviation 𝜎6 .
Therefore, it is assumed that π‘Œ1,1 ∼ 𝑁(𝑒 − 𝛿 + πœ‡6 , 𝜎6 ), where πœ‡6
and 𝜎6 of the difference between the actual and nominal values
of the distance from the edge to the beginning of the first notch
(Table 2). Finally, let 𝐿2 be the width of the transversal stiffener.
This variable is approximated by 𝐿2 ∽ 𝑁(𝐿 + πœ‡7 , 𝜎7 ), with 𝐿 the
nominal transverse width, whereas πœ‡7 and 𝜎7 are the mean and
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TABLE 2
The panel block assembly process will be successful if longitudinals slide through the slot on the transverse without intersection
of the two elements. Therefore, depending on the inclination of
longitudinals, three different cases can take place. Let π‘Ž be the
web thickness of longitudinal and 𝑏 the longitudinal web height.
Thus, the above mentioned cases are as follows:
The differences between real and nominal values are modeled
in all cases. We obtain the sample mean and standard deviation
corresponding to each gap or difference between nominal and
actual value. They are considered as parameters in our statistical
method. This methodology provides an approximation of the
probability of correct panel block assembly by using m Monte
Carlo simulation trials. For practical purposes we have chosen of
m = 1,000,000 in our simulations.
The simulation algorithm is summarized as follows:
slide
(a) If πœƒπ‘– = 90β—¦ , the transverses
] through the longitudinals
[
when [𝑋𝑖 , 𝑋𝑖 + π‘Ž] ⊂ π‘Œπ‘–,1 , π‘Œπ‘–,2 . In other words, they have to
satisfy that π‘Œπ‘–,1 ≤ 𝑋𝑖 and 𝑋𝑖 + π‘Ž ≤ π‘Œπ‘–,2 .
(b) If πœƒπ‘– < 90β—¦ , then the following conditions must be met: π‘Œπ‘–,1 ≤
𝑋𝑖 − 𝑏 cos πœƒπ‘– and 𝑋𝑖 + π‘Ž ≤ π‘Œπ‘–,2 .
(c) If πœƒπ‘– > 90β—¦ , the conditions to satisfy are: π‘Œπ‘–,1 ≤ 𝑋𝑖 and 𝑋𝑖 +
π‘Ž − 𝑏 cos πœƒπ‘– ≤ π‘Œπ‘–,2 .
Considering the three above mentioned cases, the transverse
elements assembly process will be done correctly when all the
following conditions are satisfied.
The first condition is:
π‘Œπ‘–,1 ≤ 𝑋𝑖 − 𝑏 𝕀(πœƒπ‘– ≤ 90β—¦ ) cos πœƒπ‘– , 𝑖 = 1, … , π‘Ÿ
(1)
The second condition is:
𝑋𝑖 + π‘Ž − 𝑏 𝕀(πœƒπ‘– > 90β—¦ ) cos πœƒπ‘– ≤ π‘Œπ‘–,2 , 𝑖 = 1, … , π‘Ÿ
(2)
Accordingly, considering Equations (1) and (2), the probability of
correct assembly can be estimated by
𝑃(π‘π‘Žπ‘›π‘’π‘™ π‘π‘™π‘œπ‘π‘˜ π‘Žπ‘ π‘ π‘’π‘šπ‘π‘™π‘¦) = 𝑃(π‘Œπ‘–,1 ≤ 𝑋𝑖 − 𝑏 𝕀(πœƒπ‘– ≤ 90β—¦ ) cos πœƒπ‘– ,
𝑋𝑖 + π‘Ž − 𝑏 𝕀(πœƒπ‘– > 90β—¦ ) cos πœƒπ‘– ≤ π‘Œπ‘–,2 , |𝐿1 − 𝐿2 | < πœ€, ∀ 𝑖 = 1, … , π‘Ÿ),
(3)
where πœ€ is the tolerable deviation threshold between the panel
width and the transverse width. The probability of successful
block assembly is calculated from the clearance between the
panel and the transverse variable, which can be defined by
min(π‘Œ2,𝑖 − (𝑋𝑖 + π‘Ž − 𝑏 𝕀(πœƒπ‘– > 90β—¦ ) cos πœƒπ‘– ))
𝑖
−max (π‘Œ1,𝑖 − (𝑋𝑖 − 𝑏𝕀(πœƒπ‘– ≤ 90β—¦ ) cos πœƒπ‘– )).
𝑖
This variable is the critical to quality variable to define the
successful block assembly, thus it is the one used in the
sensitivity analysis.
4
Simulation Results
In this section, a simulation study is performed to evaluate the
statistical methodology described in the previous section. The free
statistical software R has been used to implement this procedure
[38]. The probability of assembly is estimated by simulation.
The random variables (𝑋𝑖 , π‘Œπ‘–,1 , π‘Œπ‘–,2 ), 𝑖 = 1, … , π‘Ÿ, 𝐿1 and 𝐿2 are
simulated from the distributions specified in Section 3.
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1. Generate 𝑋1 ∼ 𝑁(𝑒 + πœ‡1 , 𝜎1 ), 𝑋𝑖 = 𝑋𝑖−1 + πœ‰π‘–−1 , with πœ‰π‘–−1 ∼
𝑁(𝑑 + πœ‡2 , 𝜎2 ), 𝑖 = 2, … , π‘Ÿ.
πœ‹
2. Generate πœƒπ‘– ∼ 𝑁( + πœ‡8 , 𝜎8 ), 𝑖 = 1, … , π‘Ÿ.
2
3. Generate π‘Œ1,1 ∼ 𝑁(𝑒 − 𝛿 + πœ‡6 , 𝜎6 ), π‘Œπ‘–,2 = π‘Œπ‘–,1 + Δ𝑖 , with Δ𝑖 ∼
𝑁(π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4 , 𝜎4 ), 𝑖 = 1, … , π‘Ÿ; π‘Œπ‘–,1 = π‘Œπ‘–−1,2 + πœ‚π‘–−1 , with πœ‚π‘–−1 ∼
𝑁(𝑑 − 2𝛿 − π‘Ž + πœ‡5 , 𝜎5 ), 𝑖 = 2, … , π‘Ÿ.
4. Generate 𝐿1 ∼ 𝑁(𝐿 + πœ‡3 , 𝜎32 ), 𝐿2 ∼ 𝑁(𝐿 + πœ‡7 , 𝜎7 )
5. Check if the 2π‘Ÿ + 1 conditions in (3) hold.
6. Repeat Steps 1-5 π‘š times and compute the proportion of times
in which the conditions for a correct assembly hold.
The unknown means and standard deviations are estimated using
two historical data sets provided by the shipyard. At this point,
the data that support the findings of this study are available
from request to Navantia shipyards of Ferrol. Restrictions apply
to the availability of these data, which were used under license for
this study. Data are available from the authors with the previous
permission of Navantia. Specifically, panel data and transverse
data are collected from two data sets provided by the shipyard.
Figure 3 illustrates the measurements recorded in the shipyard
for these two elements.
The sample estimates obtained from the data supplied by the
shipyard are collected in Table 3, where 𝑛 is the sample size from
which the mean and standard deviation estimates are obtained.
The mean of several parameters in the model can be assumed
equal to zero by applying the one sample t-test (p-value > 0.05)
for the mean. This is the case of the deviation of distance between
longitudinals (πœ‡2 ), the deviation of distance between two adjacent
scallops (πœ‡5 ), the deviation of distance from the edge to the first
slit on transverse (πœ‡6 ), and the deviation of transverse width (πœ‡7 ).
Moreover, the following parameters are considered fixed values in
the simulation: the web thickness of longitudinal (π‘Ž = 11.2), the
web height of longitudinal (𝑏 = 200), the gap around stiffener cutout (𝛿 = 1.5), the distance from base edge to the first longitudinal
(𝑒 = 729), the distance between longitudinals (𝑑 = 738), the panel
width (𝐿 = 5000) which is considered equal to width of transverse
and the number of longitudinals (π‘Ÿ = 4).
With these values the probability to slide the transverses
through the longitudinals correctly is quite low
(𝑃(π‘π‘Žπ‘›π‘’π‘™ π‘π‘™π‘œπ‘π‘˜ π‘Žπ‘ π‘ π‘’π‘šπ‘π‘™π‘¦) = 0.011558). This means that the
shipyard is not currently able to perform successfully this
type of panel block assembly process. The proposed statistical
procedure can provide information about what are the most
influential variables in the probability of correct assembly.
Consequently, we can identify which combination of parameter
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standard deviation (respectively) of the transverse piece width
(Table 2).
𝒏
Mean value
Standard deviation
Deviation of distance from base edge to the first
longitudinal
11
πœ‡1 = 1.4545
𝜎1 = 1.7529
Deviation of distance between longitudinals
18
πœ‡2 = −0.2778a
𝜎2 = 0.8264
πœ‡3 = 0
𝜎3 = 0
Item
Panel
b
Deviation of panel width
34
πœ‡8 = −0.5724
𝜎8 = 0.9520
Deviation of distance from the edge to the first slit
on transverse
20
πœ‡6 = −0.7000
a
𝜎6 = 2.2676
Deviation of scallop width of the transverse
85
πœ‡4 = −0.3376
𝜎4 = 1.0742
66
πœ‡5 = −0.1545
a
𝜎5 = 1.3009
9
πœ‡7 = −1.5556
a
𝜎7 = 3.9721
Deviation of inclination of the longitudinals
Transverse
Deviation of distance between two adjacent scallops
Deviation of transverse width
a
b
It is accepted that the mean is equal zero.
Given the lack of data, the parameters of this item are considered zero.
values produces a high increase in the probability of correct panel
block assembly process. In other words, the identification of
these variables shows what magnitude needs to modified in order
to continuously improve the process. This can be conducted by
performing a sensitivity analysis.
5
Sensitivity Analysis
Finally, in order to improve the analyzed panel block assembly process and to facilitate decision making in the shipyard,
a sensitivity analysis has been performed. The aim of this
study is to identify the variables which affect in a greater
extent the probability of correct sliding between transverses
and longitudinals. In this way, the model can provide valuable
information about which are the critical variables and which
are their optimal values in order to increase the probability
of correct panel block assembly. These values will help to the
shipyard to execute the correct actions in order to improve the
process.
The estimations of the parameters are obtained using the data sets
provided by the shipyard. To perform the sensitivity analysis, the
deviations between theoretical and real values are also statistically modeled as normal distributed variables, using the sample
statistics as parameter estimates. Reproducing the scenarios of
perfect accuracy and precision is necessary, taking into account
that the quality and capability of a process can be characterized
attending to its variability and location (assuming that all process
improvement should be oriented to reduce the dispersion and
correct the position). Thus, the potential capability of the panel
assembly process can be analyzed properly. Consequently, some
of these parameters, namely mean (πœ‡) and standard deviation (𝜎),
depending on each simulated scenario, have been fixed to zero
with the aim to reproduce the ideal conditions of either perfect
accuracy or perfect precision.
As shown in Table 4, the value of the parameters is fixed to zero,
target value of the studied variables. The different simulation
scenarios are developed by fixing to zero one (πœ‡ or 𝜎) or two
parameters (πœ‡ and 𝜎) of one critical variable. It is important to
note that the values of the remaining parameters are the sample
estimates obtained from the real dataset. The probabilities of
sliding between transverses and longitudinals are calculated for
each scenario (see Table 4). The parameter which offers the best
chance of increasing the probability is the mean corresponding
to the deviation for inclination of the longitudinals (πœ‡4 ), that
is, if the angle of the longitudinals with respect to the panel
plane were 90β—¦ in the mean, then the probability to slide the
transverse elements through the longitudinals correctly would
increase most. Further, in the scenario defined by the absence of
systematic errors in the variables of the model, the probability
would be equal to 0.353347. Thus, the recommendation is that
the shipyard improves the process methodology, focusing the
efforts in all the actions related to the longitudinal angles. In
fact, the shipyard has recently begun to implement such improvement procedure, taking into account the above mentioned
results.
The method shown above has been developed by the authors
themselves to evaluate the sensitivity of various parameters of
the proposed model on the response variable, the probability of
successful block assembly between panel and transverse. This is,
therefore, one of the contributions of the work: a very simple
sensitivity analysis model, made ad hoc for the specific case that
concerns us, the block assembly model in the specific framework
of shipbuilding. However, nowadays there is a wide range of
procedures to evaluate the importance of each of the parameters
(as well as their interactions) that affect one or several response
variables, related to each other by means of an expression or transfer function. All these procedures are included in the so-called
sensitivity analysis [39], currently one of the most important
areas of statistics and characterized by active research and growth
[40, 41], due to the current importance of the evaluation of
models and algorithms in the industrial field, among others. This
research has also focused on computational statistics; in fact,
in recent years important open-access computational tools have
been developed that allow users to employ sensitivity analysis
techniques in an intensive, fast, safe, reliable, and efficient
way. In this regard, within the framework of R software, the
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TABLE 3
Parameters estimated from the two data sets provided by the shipyard, including a short description and the sample size from which
mean and standard deviation are obtained.
Changed parameter
𝝁=𝟎
𝝈=𝟎
𝝁 = 𝟎 and
𝝈=𝟎
Deviation of distance from base edge to the first
longitudinal
0.011558
0.011558
0.011558
Deviation of distance between longitudinals
0.011558
0.013486
0.013486
Deviation of panel width
0.011558
0.011558
0.011558
Deviation of inclination of the longitudinals
0.277368
0.011698
0.28774
Deviation of distance from the edge to the first slit
on transverse
0.011558
0.011558
0.011558
Deviation of scallop width of the transverse
0.024466
0.011248
0.038046
Deviation of distance between two adjacent scallops
0.011558
0.05562
0.05562
Deviation of transverse width
0.011558
0.011558
0.011558
Item
Panel
Transverse
sensitivity package is the most complete and documented
[42], in addition to the sensobol package [43] which is, although
less complete, of simple, fast and intuitive to use, among many
other computational alternatives.
These R packages have been used to enrich the simulation study
of the present work, taking into account the accessibility of these
computational tools, in addition to the complete documentation
of each of their functions. Specifically, on the one hand, the
application of the Morris screening-type method [44] has been
proposed and, on the other hand, the implementation of a
variance-based procedure, as is the case of the Sobol indices. In
this case, they are estimated from the first order and total order
estimators proposed by Azzini et al. [45], obtained by means of
Monte Carlo procedures.
In order to simplify the application of the aforementioned
procedures, we have proposed as response variable the clearance
of the block assembly between panel and transverse, from which
the block assembly probability was calculated in the previous
calculations. The clearance must be positive for success assembly
to take place. First, the values of a series of model parameters
have been fixed, taking into account real sample values and
the experience of the shipyard workers. Specifically, the values
shown in Table 3 are taken. We also assume as constants the
web thickness of longitudinal (π‘Ž = 11.2), the web height of
longitudinal (𝑏 = 200), the gap around stiffener cut-out (𝛿 = 1.5),
the distance from base edge to the first longitudinal (𝑒 = 729),
the distance between longitudinals (𝑑 = 738), the panel width
(𝐿 = 5000), and the number of longitudinals (π‘Ÿ = 4).
As for the parameters affecting sliding between panel and
transverse, 16 have been taken into account. Table 5 shows the
model parameters, already mentioned in Table 1, including the
three nomenclatures used: the one indicated in the methodology
section of this article, the equivalent used by the computational
tools (sensitivity package) to perform the Morris design, and
the one corresponding to the outputs of the R sensobol package
for the estimation of the Sobol indices. On the other hand, it
is important to note that, in this work, it has been assumed
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that the parameters of interest follow a normal distribution,
estimating the means and standard deviations of each parameter from sample data (see Table 3). Indeed, the dimensional
measurements of manufactured parts in industry (as in Naval
industry) very often follow a normal distribution, taking into
account they are the result of many small, independent random
effects related to the 6 M’s (manpower, mother nature, machines,
materials, measurements, and methods). Thus, assuming the
Central Limit Theorem, these effects can give rise to a normally
distributed variable. Therefore, Table 5 includes the parameters
of the normal distribution, mean and variance, which follow
each of the influential variables in the model studied (also
called parameters), according to the values indicated in Table 3.
Alternatively, this work also shows the results obtained assuming
a uniform distribution for each of the parameters, a less restrictive
assumption when no further information is available on the
variables apart from the limits within which their values are
distributed. Table 5 also shows the lower and upper limits for each
parameter, constructed by subtracting and adding the standard
deviation, respectively, to the corresponding mean, simulating
tolerance levels for these values, a common practice in this type
of industry.
The Morris design belongs to the group of screening procedures,
whose objective is to identify those factors most relevant to a
given response. The Morris method, by calculating the πœ‡∗ and 𝜎
[42] estimators, provides information about the most influential
factors on the response (high πœ‡∗ and 𝜎) and whether these factors
have a linear or nonlinear effect (and/or with the presence of
interactions). Specifically, πœ‡∗ is the sensitivity measure defined
by πœ‡∗ = 𝐸|𝑑𝑗 |, where 𝑑𝑗 is the effect of factor 𝑗 on the response
variable and 𝐸 the expected value. On the other hand, 𝜎 is the
estimator of the standard deviation of the effect of factor 𝑗 on
the response. If the factors, in our case parameters of the block
assembly model, have a non-linear effect on the response (and/or
present interactions), they will be characterized by a relatively
high pair (πœ‡∗ , 𝜎). Otherwise, although πœ‡∗ is high, 𝜎 is low, this
is an indication of the presence of only linear effects. For more
information about the expression and description of the Morris
model, see Da Veiga et al. [39].
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TABLE 4
Probability to slide the transverses through the longitudinals setting to zero the mean or/and the variance of the deviations actualnominal in the model.
First, the nomenclature used to name each parameter whose influence on the magnitude of the panel-transverse clearance to be studied
Gaussian assumption, 𝑡(𝝁, 𝝈)
Parameters nomenclature
Uniform assumption, 𝑼(𝒂, 𝒃)
Morris
Sobol
𝝁
𝝈
𝒂=𝝁−𝝈
𝒃=𝝁+𝝈
𝑋1
𝑋1
π‘₯1
𝑒 + πœ‡1
𝜎1
𝑒 + πœ‡ 1 − 𝜎1
𝑒 + πœ‡ 1 + 𝜎1
πœ‰1
𝑋2
π‘₯2
𝑑 + πœ‡2
𝜎2
𝑑 + πœ‡ 2 − 𝜎2
𝑑 + πœ‡ 2 + 𝜎2
πœ‰2
𝑋3
π‘₯3
𝑑 + πœ‡2
𝜎2
𝑑 + πœ‡ 2 − 𝜎2
𝑑 + πœ‡ 2 + 𝜎2
πœ‰3
𝑋4
π‘₯4
𝑑 + πœ‡2
𝜎2
𝑑 + πœ‡ 2 − 𝜎2
𝑑 + πœ‡ 2 + 𝜎2
πœƒ1
𝑋5
π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž1
πœ‹βˆ•2 + πœ‡8
𝜎8
πœ‹βˆ•2 + πœ‡8 − 𝜎8
πœ‹βˆ•2 + πœ‡8 + 𝜎8
πœƒ2
𝑋6
π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž2
πœ‹βˆ•2 + πœ‡8
𝜎8
πœ‹βˆ•2 + πœ‡8 − 𝜎8
πœ‹βˆ•2 + πœ‡8 + 𝜎8
πœƒ3
𝑋7
π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž3
πœ‹βˆ•2 + πœ‡8
𝜎8
πœ‹βˆ•2 + πœ‡8 − 𝜎8
πœ‹βˆ•2 + πœ‡8 + 𝜎8
πœƒ4
𝑋8
π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž4
πœ‹βˆ•2 + πœ‡8
𝜎8
πœ‹βˆ•2 + πœ‡8 − 𝜎8
πœ‹βˆ•2 + πœ‡8 + 𝜎8
π‘Œ1,1
𝑋9
𝑦1
𝑒 − 𝛿 + πœ‡6
𝜎6
𝑒 − 𝛿 + πœ‡ 6 − 𝜎6
𝑒 − 𝛿 + πœ‡ 6 + 𝜎6
Δ1
𝑋10
π·π‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘Ž1
π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4
𝜎4
π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4 − 𝜎4
π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4 + 𝜎4
Δ2
𝑋11
π·π‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘Ž2
π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4
𝜎4
π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4 − 𝜎4
π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4 + 𝜎4
Δ3
𝑋12
π·π‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘Ž3
π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4
𝜎4
π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4 − 𝜎4
π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4 + 𝜎4
Δ4
𝑋13
π·π‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘Ž4
π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4
𝜎4
π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4 − 𝜎4
π‘Ž + 2𝛿 + πœ‡4 + 𝜎4
πœ‚1
𝑋14
π‘’π‘‘π‘Ž1
𝑑 − 2𝛿 − π‘Ž + πœ‡5
𝜎5
𝑑 − 2𝛿 − π‘Ž + πœ‡5 − 𝜎5
𝑑 − 2𝛿 − π‘Ž + πœ‡5 + 𝜎5
πœ‚2
𝑋15
π‘’π‘‘π‘Ž2
𝑑 − 2𝛿 − π‘Ž + πœ‡5
𝜎5
𝑑 − 2𝛿 − π‘Ž + πœ‡5 − 𝜎5
𝑑 − 2𝛿 − π‘Ž + πœ‡5 + 𝜎5
πœ‚3
𝑋16
π‘’π‘‘π‘Ž3
𝑑 − 2𝛿 − π‘Ž + πœ‡5
𝜎5
𝑑 − 2𝛿 − π‘Ž + πœ‡5 − 𝜎5
𝑑 − 2𝛿 − π‘Ž + πœ‡5 + 𝜎5
Article
Note: In addition, assuming normal distribution, the mean and standard deviation of each parameter, calculated from the sample values shown in Table 3, are
shown. Finally, assuming uniform distribution for the parameters, the lower and upper limits for a uniform distribution are also indicated.
FIGURE 5
The scatterplot of the effects of each of the parameters on the clearance between panel and transverse pieces in the block assembly
process is shown. The vertical axis shows the estimates of the standard deviation of the effect of each parameter on the response variable, while the
horizontal axis shows the mean of the absolute value of the effect of each parameter.
Figure 5 shows the graphical output of the application of the
Morris design and procedure for the estimation of the most influential parameters on the clearance size during the block assembly
process in the shipbuilding industry. Tentatively, following some
of the guidelines shown in De Veiga et al. [39], the parameters π‘Ÿ
(number of replications of the model) equal to 10, and levels (or
number of different values for each parameter in the design) equal
to 5 have been defined as inputs of the Morris model. As a result,
the most influential parameters due to their high 𝜎 and πœ‡∗ values
are, above all, those related to the angles of the panel longitudinals
(X5 also called πœƒ1 , X6 also called πœƒ2 ), the scallops width of the
transverse (X10, X11 and X12), in addition to the distance between
two adjacent scallops (X14). The fact that they all align, to a
greater or lesser extent, indicates that the effect of each of them
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TABLE 5
is indicated.
Sobol indices are variance-based methods, that is, they give
an estimate of the sensitivity of the response variable due to
the variation of an input variable or parameter, by quantifying
the variance produced in the output caused by the variation
in the parameter. If the response variable is defined as π‘Œ as
a function of π‘˜ parameters, π‘Œ = 𝑓(𝑋1 , 𝑋2 … π‘‹π‘˜ ), the first order
effect of the parameter 𝑋𝑖 on the response π‘Œ can be denoted as
𝑉𝐴𝑅𝑋𝑖 [𝐸π‘₯∼𝑖 (π‘Œ|𝑋𝑖 )], where 𝑋∼𝑖 denotes all factors except the factor
𝑋𝑖 . That is, the main or first-order effect can be defined as the
contribution of 𝑋𝑖 alone to the variance of the response variable
π‘Œ, averaged from the variances of the other parameters. If the
main effects are scaled by dividing by the total variance, Sobol’s
𝑆𝑖 indices are obtained. These indices do not include the effect
of interactions, second order effects denoted by 𝑆𝑖𝑗 . Therefore,
total indices, 𝑇𝑖 , are also defined, which take into account total
variability existing in π‘Œ and due to the factor 𝑋𝑖 together with
all its interactions with the other parameters [46]. For more
information on the definition and expression of these indices, see
Da Veiga et al. [39] and Puy et al. [43].
In our particular case, in addition to calculating the main effects
of each parameter on the response, it is important to estimate the
effect of the interactions, therefore, both 𝑆𝑖 and 𝑆𝑖𝑗 indices will be
calculated, in addition to 𝑇𝑖 . For this purpose, as indicated in Puy
et al. [43], it is necessary, on the one hand, to have a sample design
that orders the various parameter values in a multidimensional
space and, on the other hand, an estimator to obtain the 𝑆𝑖 ,
𝑆𝑖𝑗 , and 𝑇𝑖 effects. In this work, we have used the sampling
designs available in the sensobol package, which arrange all the
parameter values through the construction of a series of matrices
(𝑖)
(𝑖)
named A, B, A𝐡 and B𝐴 . As for the estimator used, following
the scheme indicated in Puy et al. [43], the estimator proposed
by Azzini et al. is used, which allows both the estimation of firstorder and total second-order effects [43, 45] (in our case, including
only second-order interactions).
Regarding the sampling plan, a sample of size 𝑁 = 213 was taken,
from which the first and second order effects were estimated by
bootstrap resampling composed of 103 resamples [43], which also
allows the calculation of confidence intervals (in this case at 95%).
Next, before estimating the first-order, second-order and total
indices, a descriptive study of the effects of each parameter on
the response, the existing clearance between panel and transverse
when block assembly, is performed (Figure 6). Figure 6 shows the
scatterplots with the heat map effects and mean effect (in red)
of each parameter on the value of the clearance. It is observed
that the clearances tend to be negative, with a median of −5.8,
indicating the difficulty to perform a successful sliding (when the
clearance is greater than 0). On the other hand, if the evolution
of the mean of the slack (y) is observed as a function of the
parameters πœƒ1 , πœƒ2 , πœƒ3 , and πœƒ4 (all inclination angles of each one
of the longitudinals of the panel) are identified as the most
influential variables in the response. In fact, a parabolic trend
is observed in the mean of 𝑦 (in red) for all of them. Some
increasing trend on 𝑦 as a function of parameters is also observed
for the scallop width of the transverses parameters (Δ1 , Δ2 , Δ3 ,
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and Δ4 ), in addition to the distance parameter between two
adjoining scallops (πœ‚1 , πœ‚2 , and πœ‚3 ). Similarly, it is important to
note that positive clearances (and thus successful sliding) are
obtained for central values of the parameters πœƒπ‘– , Δ𝑖 , and πœ‚π‘– ,
that is, for values around the mean values, which correspond to
the means of the tolerance intervals. Considering that the most
influential parameters are the longitudinal angles, for the sake
of simplicity (showing all possible interactions in the same plot
would be impossible), a descriptive study of the influence of the
interactions of each pair πœƒπ‘– - πœƒπ‘— on the clearance (y) is shown,
through the scatterplots shown in Figure 7. It is observed that
the clearance tends to be larger the more central are the values of
the angles πœƒπ‘– and πœƒπ‘— , besides certain indications of the existence
of interaction effects between the parameters are identified. In
fact, the clearance decreases when one of the two parameters
is high or low, moreover, at small values of πœƒπ‘– - πœƒπ‘— , or large
of both, the clearance decreases. Similar patterns can be found
when studying the joint variation of other parameters such as
πœ‚π‘– and Δ𝑖 . Therefore, the estimation of second-order effects is
supported.
Next, the first and second order Sobol indices, including 𝑆𝑖 , 𝑆𝑖,𝑗 ,
and 𝑇𝑖 , are calculated. The results of the calculation of 𝑆𝑖 and 𝑇𝑖 for
each parameter are shown in Figure 8. Considering the explained
variability, the main effects explain 61% of the model, being,
therefore, the most influential, although the interactions are of
great importance, as can be seen by the difference between the 𝑇𝑖
indices (which include the effects of the iteration of parameter
i with the others) and the 𝑆𝑖 . All the first-order effects were
significant, except π‘₯1 (distance from the panel edge to the first
longitudinal) and 𝑦1 (distance from the edge to the first recess).
Among all the parameters, by far the most influential are the
panel longitudinal angles (π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž1, π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž2, π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž3, and π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž4),
followed, in order of importance, by the notch widths (π·π‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘Ž1,
π·π‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘Ž2, π·π‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘Ž3, and π·π‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘Ž4) and the distances between each
pair of notches (π‘’π‘‘π‘Ž1, π‘’π‘‘π‘Ž2, and π‘’π‘‘π‘Ž3). The first-order effects of
the distances between longitudinals (π‘₯2, π‘₯3, π‘₯4) are very small
compared to the effects of the aforementioned parameters.
In addition to the first-order effects, the total effects of each of
the parameters on the response, 𝑇𝑖 , are estimated, which also
include the second-order effects, 𝑆𝑖𝑗 . It is observed that the total
effects tend to be at least twice the first-order effects. This is
indicative of the relevance of the effects of interactions between
pairs of parameters. Figure 8 shows that the significant total
effects (compared to the blue boundary) are those related to the
parameters π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž1, π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž2, π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž3 and π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž4. Therefore, those
interactions of these parameters with the others will be more
significant and relevant. In fact, if one looks at the 15 highest
second-order effects in mean value (Figure 9), almost all (except
one) correspond to interactions in which at least one of the
parameters π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž is included. Therefore, the longitudinal angles
are the critical parameters in the sliding process.
Finally, in order to observe the influence of assuming one
parametric distribution or another to model the effects of the
parameters, we have alternatively assumed that these effects
follow uniform, rather than normal, distributions. Tentatively, the
upper and lower bounds of the uniform distributions have been
assumed to be the results of adding and subtracting, respectively,
the values of the standard deviations from the mean (Table 5).
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may be nonlinear or subject to interactions. Taking the latter into
account, in order to estimate the effect of these interactions, we
propose the application of variance-based sensitivity methods,
such as the calculation of Sobol indices, for instance.
FIGURE 7
Scatterplot matrix of πœƒπ‘– - πœƒπ‘— parameters pairs for the clearance block assembly model.
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FIGURE 6
Scatterplots for each of the effects of the parameters on the response. The red line indicates the mean of the response variable. The
value of the response is indicated through a heat map.
First order effects, 𝑆𝑖 , and total effects, 𝑇𝑖 , of each block assembly parameter, assuming Gaussian distributions.
FIGURE 9
Confidence intervals (95%) corresponding to the 15 higher second-order effects, 𝑆𝑖𝑗 , of the parameters on the response, y, assuming
Gaussian distributions.
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FIGURE 8
First order effects, 𝑆𝑖 , and total effects, 𝑇𝑖 , of each block assembly parameter, assuming uniform distributions.
Figure 10 shows the corresponding first order and total order
effects, assuming uniform distributions. It can be seen that the
most relevant parameters coincide with those obtained assuming
normal distribution, both in terms of first order and total order
effects, although the total effects of the π‘’π‘‘π‘Ž parameters tend to be
larger, with the total effect of π‘’π‘‘π‘Ž2 being significant.
the probability of successful panel block assembly is estimated by
Monte Carlo simulation.
6
The proposed model allows the users to identify the most critical
variables on the probability of correct panel block assembly
process. This is a valuable tool to identify the most important
assignable causes of fail and the sub-processes that would have
to be improved to achieve a higher probability of success. In
the present case study, the most influencing variable on the
probability of success is the angle of the longitudinals with
respect to the panel plane, that has to be fixed at 90β—¦ . Thus,
the shipyard would have to begin the improvement process by
controlling all the sub-processes related to the longitudinals
inclination.
Conclusions
The main contribution of this work is the proposal of a new
statistical procedure to estimate the probability of correct panel
block assembly (correct sliding of the transverses through the
longitudinals) in shipbuilding as a function of the critical variables of the process. This statistical tool proposes an alternative
to evaluate the proficiency of shipyards to perform panel block
assembly process during the vessel construction. Moreover, the
identification of those critical variables and the quantification of
their influence in the studied process are goals that have been
also achieved. It is also important to note than this statistical
proposal has been calibrated, taking into account the sample
estimates obtained from a real case study performed in the
Navantia shipyards.
Specifically, a statistical procedure based on the panel block
assembly geometry has been proposed, assuming normal distribution for the group of variables that best defines the problem.
The variables included in the model are the differences between
the theoretical and actual values of the distance from base edge
to the first longitudinal, the distance between longitudinals, the
panel width, the inclination of the longitudinals, the distance
from the edge to the first slit on transverse, the scallop width
of the transverse, the distance between two adjacent scallops,
and the transverse width. The latter have been identified by the
geometric characteristics of the process and the experience of the
trained personnel of the shipyard. The geometric conditions at
which the correct sliding between transverses and longitudinals is
produced have been properly formalized. Taking into account the
distribution, mean and variability of the variables in the process,
The proficiency of the case study shipyard for performing a
panel block assembly process has been evaluated by the proposed
model. The parameters of the variables in the process have been
estimated using a representative sample provided by Navantia.
In order to complete the information about the most relevant
algorithm parameters and parameter interactions, a sensitivity
analysis of the panel block assembly model parameters has
been carried out, assuming assembly clearance as a response
variable. For this purpose, screening methods such as the
one proposed by Morris and variance-based procedures such
as Sobol’s indices have been applied. The latter indices were
estimated using the estimators proposed by Azzini. As a result,
the most relevant parameters have been identified as the angles
of the longitudinals with the panel, πœƒπ‘– (also called π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ž or
𝑋5 − 𝑋8) either in terms of main or first-order effects or taking
into account the interactions. In fact, particularly significant
are the interactions of the angles of the longitudinals with
themselves, as well as with the parameters πœ‚π‘– (distance between
scallops) and Δ𝑖 (width of scallops in the transverse), in that
order. In this regard, it should be noted that the variations
of the response due to interactions (second-order effects)
correspond to 39% (the remaining 61% corresponding to firstorder effects). Therefore, in order to increase the clearance and,
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FIGURE 10
9. S. Li, D. K. Kim, and S. Benson, “A Probabilistic Approach to Assess
the Computational Uncertainty of Ultimate Strength of Hull Girders,”
Reliability Engineering & System Safety 213 (2021): 107688.
10. Y. Ao, Y. Li, J. Gong, and S. Li, “An Artificial Intelligence-Aided
Design (AIAD) of Ship Hull Structures,” Journal of Ocean Engineering and
Science 8, no. 1 (2021): 15–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joes.2021.11.003
Acknowledgments
The authors thank Carlos Blanco Seijo, from I+D+i of Navantia, for
his help and comments. In addition, we would like to thank the
guidance and work of the reviewers and editor. This research was
supported by GAIN (Xunta de Galicia) and Navantia company (SEPI),
in the framework of the UDC - Navantia joint Research Unit, with the
project “Shipyard 4.0. The Shipyard of the Future” and Centro Mixto
de Investigación (CEMI) Navantia-UDC, with reference IN853C 2022/01.
This research has been also supported by the Ministerio de Ciencia e
Innovación grant PID2020-113578RB-100 and PID2023-147127OB-I00, the
Ministry for Digital Transformation and Civil Service under Grant TSI100925-2023-1, the Xunta de Galicia (Grupos de Referencia Competitiva
ED431C-2020-14 and ED431C 2024/014), and by the CITIC, also funded
by the Xunta de Galicia through the collaboration agreement between
the Consellería de Cultura, Educación, Formación Profesional e Universidades and the Galician universities for the reinforcement of the
research centers of the Galician University System, CIGUS, with reference
ED431G 2023/01. Funding for open access charge: Universidade da
Coruña/CISUG.
Data Availability Statement
The data that support the findings of this study could be available on
request from the corresponding author, J. T. S., and under the supervision
and approval of Navantia company. The data are not publicly available
due to commercial restrictions.
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