obesity2

http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9098296&fileId
=S1368980013000086
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Public Health Nutrition
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Volume 17
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Issue 01
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Obesity prevalence in Mexico: impact on health and economic burden
Public Health Nutrition
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Public Health Nutrition / Volume 17 / Issue 01 / January 2014, pp 233-239
Copyright © The Authors 2013
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1368980013000086 (About DOI), Published online:
01 February 2013
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Health economy
Obesity prevalence in Mexico: impact on health and economic burden
Ketevan Rtveladzea1 c1, Tim Marsha1, Simon Barqueraa2, Luz Maria Sanchez
Romeroa2, David Levya3, Guillermo Melendeza4, Laura Webbera1, Fanny
Kilpia1, Klim McPhersona5 and Martin Browna1
a1
Micro Health Simulations, Victoria House 7th Floor, Southampton Row, London WC1B
4AD, UK
a2
Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos, México
a3
Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
a4
Fundación Mexicana para la Salud, Tlalpan, México DF
a5
New College, Oxford, UK
Abstract
Objective Along with other countries having high and low-to-middle income, Mexico has
experienced a substantial change in obesity rates. This rapid growth in obesity prevalence has
led to high rates of obesity-related diseases and associated health-care costs.
Design Micro-simulation is used to project future BMI trends. Additionally thirteen BMIrelated diseases and health-care costs are estimated. The results are simulated for three
hypothetical scenarios: no BMI reduction and BMI reductions of 1 % and 5 % across the
population.
Setting Mexican Health and Nutrition Surveys 1999 and 2000, and Mexican National Health
and Nutrition Survey 2006.
Subjects Mexican adults.
Results In 2010, 32 % of men and 26 % of women were normal weight. By 2050, the
proportion of normal weight will decrease to 12 % and 9 % for males and females
respectively, and more people will be obese than overweight. It is projected that by 2050
there will be 12 million cumulative incidence cases of diabetes and 8 million cumulative
incidence cases of heart disease alone. For the thirteen diseases considered, costs of $US 806
million are estimated for 2010, projected to increase to $US 1·2 billion and $US 1·7 billion in
2030 and 2050 respectively. A 1 % reduction in BMI prevalence could save $US 43 million
in health-care costs in 2030 and $US 85 million in 2050.
Conclusions Obesity rates are leading to a large health and economic burden. The projected
numbers are high and Mexico should implement strong action to tackle obesity. Results
presented here will be very helpful in planning and implementing policy interventions.
(Received July 03 2012)
(Revised December 05 2012)
(Accepted January 02 2013)
(Online publication February 01 2013)
Keywords
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Obesity;
Mexico;
Health care;
Cost;
Economic
Correspondence
c1
Corresponding author: Email [email protected]
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