See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228160047 Hard vs. Soft Law: Alternatives, Complements and Antagonists in International Governance Article in Minnesota law review · June 2009 CITATIONS READS 118 2,800 2 authors: Gregory Shaffer Mark A. Pollack University of California, Irvine Temple University 116 PUBLICATIONS 1,555 CITATIONS 94 PUBLICATIONS 4,781 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE All content following this page was uploaded by Mark A. Pollack on 17 February 2014. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. SEE PROFILE Draft 1/31/2009 Hard vs. Soft Law: Alternatives, Complements and Antagonists in International Governance by Gregory C. Shaffer and Mark A. Pollack1 The aim of this Article is to use the concepts of hard and soft law to build a crosscutting theory that integrates international law, international relations and sociology of law to further our understanding of how international law is made and develops over time in a fragmented and decentralized governance system. Our theory is that state and other actors choose among legal instruments that vary in their hard- and soft- law characteristics to advance their aims. States and other actors choose these instruments sometimes as alternatives relative to the instruments’ respective attributes, sometimes as complements to enhance international coordination and cooperation over time, and sometimes as antagonists to counter existing international legal instruments that work contrary to their aims. By focusing on the role of actors, we foreground the roles of power, interest and distributive conflict in the development of, resistance to, and impact of international law. By focusing on the interaction among soft and hard law instruments as complements and antagonists, we foreground the role of institutional choice and institutional path dependencies in a fragmented international legal order. By focusing on the role of domestic implementation, we foreground the challenges of decentralized governance and integrate sociolegal analysis of how the domestic reception of international law recursively drives further development of international law-making, 1 Gregory Shaffer is Melvin C. Steen Proffessor of Law, University of Minnesota Law School, and Mark Pollack is Associate Professor of Political Science, Temple University. We thank John Bronsteen, Brett Frischmann, Tom Ginsburg, Daniel Halberstam, Terry Halliday, Larry Helfer, Kal Raustiala and Spencer Waller for their comments, as well as the participants at conferences and workshops at the University of Michigan, the University of Illinois, Loyola Univeristy Chicago, the Law and Society Association (Montreal), the Society of International Economic Law (Geneva), the International Law Association (New York City). We thank Melissa Beckman, Mathew Bills, Mathew Fortin and Kisa Patel for their research assistance. All errors of course remain our own. 2 where hard- and soft- law instruments are sometimes used as complements and sometimes as antagonists. In this Article, we build specific hypotheses as to how, and under what conditions, hard and soft law instruments interact in different ways in international governance. There has been a considerable amount of scholarship regarding the use of “hard” and “soft” law in international governance, written from legal positivist, normative and political economy perspectives. This law and social science literature assesses the relative functional attributes and deficiencies of hard and soft law instruments as alternatives for international governance, as well as how these instruments can be combined sequentially as mutually-reinforcing complements to lead to greater international cooperation over time. We find, however, that this scholarship has failed to address how, when and why hard and soft law operate as antagonists, and thus the full implications of hard and soft law for how international law operates. The existing law and social science literature on hard and soft law can be divided into three camps: legal positivists, rationalists and constructivists.2 All three of these camps address how hard and soft law interact in complementary ways, but they have different starting points. Legal positivists tend to view hard and soft law in binary terms, with hard law referring to legal obligations of a formally binding nature, and soft law to law that is not formally binding but may nonetheless lead to binding hard law.3 They either question whether soft law can be considered to be law because it is not legally binding, or view it at best as an inferior instrument whose only rational is to serve as a stepping stone to hard law. Rationalists, in contrast, contend that states choose between hard and soft law instruments depending on the level of commitment that they wish to make. In an important article in the rationalist tradition, Kenneth Abbott and Duncan Snidal described international legal instruments as lying along a hard-soft law continuum in terms of different features, such as the law’s precision, obligation and delegation to a third party 2 A full explication of these three modes of scholarship and their approaches to hard and soft law interaction is set forth in Part I.C. 3 See discussion in Part IA, supra notes… and accompanying text. 3 for dispute resolution, each of which can be of a harder or softer nature.4 Rationalists find that both hard and soft law can be advantageous to states in different circumstances, so that neither should be judged to be superior. For example, rationalists contend that because soft law is less costly for states to negotiate and less costly to their sovereignty, states will prefer it in situations of uncertainty where they need to learn more about the intentions of the other parties or about the underlying technical issues. Constructivists, in contrast to rationalists, maintain that state interests are formed through socialization processes of interstate interaction which soft law can facilitate. They thus favor soft law instruments for their capacity to generate shared norms and a sense of common purpose and identity. As with legal positivists, however, both constructivist and rationalists scholars contend that soft law can lead to hard law and, once formed, can help to further elaborate hard law, resulting in progressive cycles of law-making leading to greater cooperation. In other words, all three approaches, regardless of their views about the strengths and weaknesses of hard and soft law as alternatives, agree that hard and soft law may also serve as mutually supporting complements. For purposes of this Article, we will remain agnostic as to which of these three camps most accurately captures the nature of hard and soft law and their relative advantages, although we have our own views in this respect.5 Our aim here is not to adjudicate among these three views about the respective strengths and weaknesses of hard and soft law, but to understand how hard and soft law interact under different conditions, and we suggest that all three approaches have erred in focusing only on the mutually supporting or complementary interaction of hard and soft law. We make two central claims. Our first and primary claim is that international hard and soft law instruments (or, for that matter, any legal instruments that vary in their soft and hard law characteristics) can be used as antagonists just as easily as they can be used as complements in a fragmented and decentralized governance system where there are distributive conflicts. Our second, related claim is that this interaction has particular 4 See Kenneth W. Abbott & Duncan Snidal, Hard and Soft Law in International Governance, 54 INT’L ORG. 421 (2000), and discussion in Part IA. 5 Neither of us are legal formalists, and both of us can be viewed primarily as rationalists because of our focus on actors and their interests, although our approach is of a soft rationalist variant which takes seriously constructivist insights. 4 implications in a fragmented international system, affecting the very nature of international hard and soft law regimes and their purported advantages. We will show how the interaction of hard and soft law regimes can lead to the hardening of soft law regimes, resulting in more strategic bargaining and reducing their purported advantages of consensus-building through information-sharing and persuasion, and the softening of hard law regimes, resulting in reduced legal certainty and predictability, especially where there is distributive conflict between powerful states. It is not surprising that scholars of widely divergent perspectives predominantly view hard and soft law as complements. Law is seen as both a reflection and an instrument of social order.6 As Lon Fuller writes, the essential function of law is to “achiev[e] [social] order through subjecting people's conduct to the guidance of general rules by which they may themselves orient their behavior."7 Similarly, for socio-legal scholars working in the Weberian tradition, law performs a legitimation function, engendering public belief in the legitimacy of the prevailing social order, which in turn leads to obedience and adherence. In Max Weber’s words, “the belief in legality, the readiness to conform with rules that are formally correct and that have been imposed by accepted procedure” is “the most common form of legitimacy” in modern society.8 Given the anarchic nature of much of international relations, the central hope of international law is that it too can provide order in place of anarchy to help stabilize interstate relations and help states achieve joint gains.9 Through international law, states 6 Many conceptions of the relation between law and social order view law as either a “mirror” of the social order or as an “engineer” of it. According to the first view, the content of law mirrors the content of prevailing social norms. In other words, “law is a reflection – a ‘mirror’ – of society.” BRIAN Z. TAMANAHA, A GENERAL JURISPRUDENCE OF LAW AND SOCIETY 1 (2001); Lawrence Friedman, Borders: On the Emerging Sociology of Transnational Law, 32 STAN. J. INT’L L. 65, 72 (1996) (“Necessarily [legal systems] reflect what is happening in their own societies”). Another influential claim states that the conceptual function of law is the maintenance of the social order. TAMANAHA, supra, at 2 (“law maintains social order by establishing and enforcing the rules of social intercourse”). See also ROSCOE POUND, SOCIAL CONTROL THROUGH LAW (1942). 7 Lon L. Fuller, A Reply to Professors Cohen and Dworkin, 10 VILL. L. REV. 655, 657 (1965). 8 MAX WEBER, ECONOMY AND SOCIETY: AN OUTLINE OF INTERPRETIVE SOCIOLOGY 37 (1978). 9 These approaches range from those of the “Yale school” of international law to Richard Falk’s work on world order. See, e.g., Myres S. McDougal, Harold D. Laswell, & Michael Reisman, The World Constitutive Process of Authoritative Decision, in INTERNATIONAL LAW ESSAYS 191-92 (1981) (the existence of a legal order requires norms that command obedience; absent such recognition disputes would be resolved through the anarchy of exercised force); Strategy of World Order (Volumes I to IV), edited with Saul H. Mendlovitz, World Law Fund, 1966-67; BURNS H. WESTON, RICHARD A. FALK & ANTHONY A. D'AMATO, INTERNATIONAL LAW AND WORLD ORDER: A PROBLEM-ORIENTED COURSEBOOK (1980). 5 can better avoid and manage conflict, whether of a military, trade or other nature, and better pursue common goals. As Prosper Weil writes, the purpose of international law is “to temper this condition of an-archy” in response to “a two-fold necessity: first, to enable heterogeneous and equal states to live side by side, and to that end to establish orderly and, as far as possible, peaceful relations among them; second, to cater to the common interests that did not take long to surface over and above the diversity of states.”10 Most legal scholars who have previously applied game theory have used the prisoners’ dilemma game to show how international law can facilitate cooperative outcomes. In fact, in a recent study, Richard McAdams found that legal scholars have referred to the prisoners’ dilemma game in “an astonishing number of law review publications — over 3000 according to my Westlaw search, which contrasts with only trivial attention to coordination games of equal legal significance.”11 Three other important games assessed by McAdams (Assurance, Hawk/Dove and Battle of the Sexes) were respectively referenced in Westlaw only 121, 101 and 75 times, or “4%, 3% and 2.5% as often as the PD game.”12 Yet as we will show, international bargaining is predominantly characterized by coordination games, and in particular the Battle of the Sexes game. Seeing hard and soft law interaction in terms of strategic maneuvers in a Battle of the Sexes game provides a much richer understanding of the use of these instruments, enabling us to better combine law and economics and law and society approaches.13 In other words, law can be viewed as more than a facilitator of social order. Law is also a tool advanced by actors to advance their aims, including where there is distributive conflict. Since actors’ interests differ, actors often attempt to make use of legal instruments in opposing ways. Thus in the US federal context, we see laws with conflicting aims enacted at the state and federal levels and within different states. The 10 Prosper Weil, Towards Relative Normativity in International Law?, 77 AM. J. INT’L L. 413, 418 (1983). Richard McAdams, Beyond the Prisoners’ Dilemma: Coordination, Game Theory and the Law, Chicago Public Law and Legal Theory Working Paper No. 241, available at… (October 2008), at 8. 12 Id., at 12. 13 See also id., at 55 (“coordination games direct attention away from the Law & Economics concerns of efficiency, exchange, and mutual advantage and towards the Law & Society issues of distribution, inequality, and social conflict. The excessive attention to the PD makes these conclusions semm foreign to game theory, when they are really well modeled if one starts with the right games”). 11 6 state of California, for example, can pass a law addressing climate emissions which is strategically intended to be in tension with federal law.14 Similarly actors can attempt to use soft law processes, such as through the American Law Institute, where they have been less successful in hard law processes, such as before legislatures, with the aim of affecting hard law interpretation by courts.15 In most domestic legal systems, however, there is hierarchy, so that tensions among these different approaches are more likely to be settled. Once we move our analysis to the international level, with its fragmented, decentralized system lacking a clear hierarchy and final institutional arbiter having compulsory jurisdiction (such as a supreme court), we are more likely to see hard and soft law instruments used by strategic actors in purposefully inconsistent ways as tools to counter each other.16 In the process, hard and soft law instruments and regimes interact in ways which can undercut their purported advantages as laid out in the canonical literature. The question, in other words, is not whether hard and soft law “complement” each other, since a legal instrument is not an agent. The question is whether actors, and in particular states, design hard- and soft- law instruments in order to complement each other or undermine each other. Thus, rather than saying, “soft law can elaborate and therefore complement hard law,” we should say, “states and other actors may adopt softlaw provisions to elaborate the provisions of existing hard law.” Similarly, rather than saying hard and soft law can interact as antagonists, we should say, some states or other actors, unhappy with existing legal agreements, may promote the adoption of new legal provisions designed to obfuscate and undermine those arrangements.” It is not an either/or question. Both statements are grammatically correct and tell part of the story. But it is important to recognize the agency of states and other actors, and the fact that 14 See High Court Ruling Prompts Debate on Preemption of State GHG Rules, CLEAN AIR REPORT, Apr. 19, 2007; J.R. DeShazo & Jody Freeman, Timing and Form of Federal Regulation: The Case of Climate Change, 155 U. PA. L. REV. 1499 1533-38 (2007); and Ann E. Carlson, Federalism, Preemption, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 37 U.C. DAVIS L. REV. 281. (2003). 15 See, e.g., Edward L. Rubin, Thinking Like a Lawyer, Acting Like a Lobbyist: Some Notes on the Process of Revising UCC Articles 3 and 4, 26 LOY. L.A. L. REV. 743 (1993). 16 In fact, John Braithwaite and Peter Drahos contend that the United States borrows from its national experience in deploying successful forum-shifting strategies at the international level. They write: “The US state in fact translated its ‘national legal pastime’ of forum-shifting into the realm of international regulatory contests.” JOHN BRAITHWAITE & PETER DRAHOS, GLOBAL BUSINESS REGULATION 564 (2000). 7 hard and soft law interact as complements or antagonists when states and other actors design and use them that way. We often focus in this Article on states as central agents in using international hard- and soft- law instruments in order to clarify our analysis. However, we fully recognize that non-state actors are also influential players in the creation of international law, whether through enrolling states to act on their behalf or through creating their own legal regimes.17 Indeed, many constructivists focus, in particular, on the role of non-state actors in using soft-law instruments to catalyze change in international law and national practice. We thus also address these cases as well. We will provide numerous examples in this Article of how international hard- and soft- law instruments interact, drawing largely (but not exclusively) from the sphere of international economic regulation, but let us briefly introduce one here. The international trade law regime under the World Trade Organization (WTO) requires that members’ sanitary and phytosanitary requirements be based on a risk assessment. These rules favored the United States (US) in its dispute with the European Union (EU) over the regulation of genetically modified foods and seeds. As we will show, this hard law forum has had a significant impact on standard-setting in a long-standing soft-law forum, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, because of concern over the implications of Codex soft law standard-setting within WTO hard law dispute settlement. The European Union, in turn, was spurred to respond by promoting new international rules in yet another forum, the Convention on Biodiversity and its Biosafety Protocol, with the resulting rules favoring the EU’s position vis-à-vis the United States. The EU hoped that these new international law developments would have an impact on a WTO panel’s application of WTO hard law rules. We show how the panel, in turn, evaded applying WTO hard law.18 In sum, we argue in this Article that hard and soft law may be used to interact not only as alternatives or complements, but also, under certain conditions, as antagonists, and that this interaction can in turn affect and undermine the respective ideal type strengths and advantages of both hard and soft law. The Article is in four parts. Part I 17 We ourselves have examined their role in detail. See Mark Pollack and Gregory Shaffer, Transatlantic Governance in the Global Economy (2001) and Gregory Shaffer, Defending Interests: Public-Private Partnerships in WTO Litigation (2003). 18 We develop this example in Part III. 8 provides an overview of the existing literature regarding the definitions of hard and soft law (section A), the relative attributes and deficiencies of hard and soft law as alternatives (section B), and how hard and soft law can act as complements, leading to greater cooperation (section C). Part II provides the background theoretical context for assessing the roles and interaction of hard and soft law in international regulatory governance as alternatives, complements and antagonists, namely the sources and the importance of state power (section A), the role of distributive conflict among and within powerful and smaller countries which gives rise to Battle of the Sexes games (section B), the challenges posed by international regime fragmentation (section C), and the recursive processes generated by the implementation stage where developing countries retain greater leverage (section D). Part III provides a detailed example of how, in light of distributive conflicts within a decentralized international system, hard and soft law can just as likely act as opposing tools aimed to counter each other’s influence, using the US/EU dispute over genetically modified foods as an illustration. Part IV then sets forth five hypotheses regarding how hard and soft law instruments interact in international governance, and, in particular, the conditions under which they work in a complementary or opposing manner. Our first two hypotheses concern the impact of cooperation and rivalry among powerful states on the interaction of international hard and soft law regimes. We contend that where powerful states agree on a regulatory approach, in particular because distributive conflict between them is weak or absent, we are more likely to see hard and soft law work as complements in an evolutionary manner, consistent with the existing literature. Indeed, we see this pattern in a number of cases of cooperation between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), which act as the most powerful players in a number of bilateral and multilateral regulatory regimes (section A). In contrast, where powerful states disagree on a regulatory approach, we are more likely to see hard and soft law work in opposition to each other, especially where there are distributional consequences which spur such states to attempt to advance their perspectives in different international regimes (section B). Given the fragmented nature of the international system, states will attempt to advance their interests in those regimes that they find to be most favorable to their positions. In such settings, we argue, soft law regimes may be “hardened” through their 9 links to other regimes, losing the purported soft law advantages of flexibility and informality, while hard law regimes such as the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement process may be “softened.” Our second two claims concern the obstacles raised when powerful states, such as the US and the EU, agree on a common regulatory approach, but where their agreement has distributive implications in third countries, affecting the dynamics of hard and soft law interaction in new ways. We maintain that even where powerful states like the US and EU agree on a regulatory approach, smaller states can also use hard and soft law strategies to attempt to thwart these aims, again by choosing regimes more favorable to their positions in a fragmented international system (section C). However, powerful states like the US and EU have significant advantages because of their market power and resources, and they can attempt to play smaller countries off of each other, including through bilateral negotiations. Even where powerful states prevail in negotiations at the international level vis-à-vis third countries, they can nonetheless face severe difficulties in the agreement’s implementation in third countries because different interests hold power in domestic settings (section D). Purportedly weak developing country actors may be, in fact, quite strong at the implementation stage where they operate on a different terrain, and such weak implementation can in practice blur the line between hard- and soft- law regimes from a law-in-action perspective. Under such conditions, powerful states may seek to complement existing hard and soft law instruments with new ones as part of ongoing recursive attempts to affect regulatory practice until some settlement is reached (using hard and soft law as complements). In turn, new politics may be catalyzed because of the greater publicity within countries at the implementation stage, so that the target governments and non-state actors within them may attempt to create new international hard and soft law instruments to counter the status quo at the international level (using hard and soft law as antagonists). Our fifth claim concerns the spectrum from which actors may choose in using hard- and soft- law instruments to counter existing international law. We briefly sketch the options for actors seeking to counter existing hard- and soft- law instruments and regimes, and provide policy examples relating to each alternative. We look at the following four situations: (1) new soft law aimed to counter existing hard law; (2) new 10 hard law aimed to counter existing hard law; (3) new hard law aimed to counter existing soft law; and (4) new soft law aimed to counter existing soft law. We hypothesize, on the one hand, that states will favor instruments with harder law characteristics where their interests are certain and when they can obtain sufficient support from third countries, or where they are sufficiently powerful to negotiate serial bilateral agreements to advance their aims. On the other hand, we hypothesize that actors more frequently resort to instruments of a soft-law nature for a number of reasons we discuss. Finally, we contend that the potentially antagonistic interaction of hard and soft law is not limited to the area of economic regulation, from which many of our examples are drawn, but are generalizable to the workings of international law in other issue-areas. While a thorough exploration of other issue-areas is beyond the scope of this Article, we illustrate the promise and the generality of our approach through two further case studies, examining how hard and soft law instruments interact in public international law regarding the use of force for “humanitarian intervention” and public international law regarding the use and possession of nuclear weapons. In both of these areas, as in cases of economic regulation, we find states strategically deploying hard- and soft-law provisions in keeping with their substantive preferences, and we find these provisions interacting in predictable, and often mutually-constraining, ways. We conclude that international law theorists and other scholars need to recognize more explicitly that there are often real distributive conflicts in international relations, resulting in conflicts between hard and soft law instruments and regimes. We find that these conflicts are not necessarily to be lamented, but rather reflect a maturation of international law in a pluralistic world, in which multiple and overlapping regimes may signal decision-makers to take account of developments in other spheres of international law and politics. Although our primary interest is to build a richer theory of how international law operates, our account is highly relevant for any actor seeking to advance its perspectives within the international law system. Our analysis both foregrounds the role of power and inequality in shaping international law in a fragmented international legal order, and yet shows how smaller developing countries retain more leverage than is often stated because of the decentralized nature of this order. This Article’s findings call 11 for future research regarding how international hard and soft law instruments interact in different contexts, and what explains these different interactions. I. The Canonical Literature on International Hard and Soft Law: Their Attributes as Alternatives and their Interaction as Complements We provide an overview of scholarship concerning the definitions of hard and soft law, and this scholarship’s assessment of the various attributes and deficiencies of hard and soft law as alternatives. We create a typology of this literature into three camps, each of which predominantly views hard and soft law to act as complements, leading to greater international cooperation. We here provide the background for our argument that the existing literature exhibits a selection bias as regards how hard and soft law interact. In Parts II and III, we will show how, in a world of distributional conflict within a decentralized governance system, hard and soft law instruments (or, for that matter, any international legal instruments) can frequently work in opposition to each other as antagonists, affecting the operation of international regimes in the process. A. Definitions of Hard and Soft Law To assess how hard and soft law interact in international governance, we must first define the terms. Here there is already disagreement in the existing literature. Many legal scholars use a simple binary binding/non-binding divide to distinguish hard from soft law.19 Positivist legal scholars tend to deny the very concept of “soft law,” since law by definition is “binding.”20 Rational institutionalist scholars respond that “the term 19 See Shelton et al 4 (2000) for a leading study which settles on this distinction. See also Wolfgang Reininke & Jan Martin Witte, Interdependence, Globalization and Sovereignty: The Role of Non-binding International Legal Accords, in COMMITMENT AND COMPLIANCE 76 (Dinah Shelton ed., 2000) (“soft law as used herein means normative agreements that are not legally binding”); Snyder 1993: 198 (“soft law consists of “rules of conduct which, in principle, have no legally binding force but which nevertheless may have practical effects”); and Jan Klabbers, The Redundancy of Soft Law, 65 NORDIC J. INT’L L. 167, 168 (1996) (advocating retention of the “traditional binary conception of law”). 20 Klabbers takes a positivist approach, arguing that “law can’t be more or less binding” so that the soft law concept is logically flawed. Klabbers, Redundancy, supra note, at 181. Prosper Weil takes a normative approach, arguing that the increasing use of soft law represents a shift pursuant to which international law norms vary in their relative normativity, and he finds that this trend “might destabilize the whole international normative system and turn it into an instrument that can no longer serve its purpose.” Weil, supra note, at 423. Klabbers also later wrote that soft law tools are “detrimental,” including because they 12 ‘binding agreement’ is a misleading hyperbole” when it comes to international affairs, but they still find that the language of “binding commitments” matters in terms of signaling by states of the seriousness of their commitments, such that non-compliance will entail greater reputational costs.21 Constructivist scholars, in contrast, focus less on the binding nature of law at the enactment stage, and more on the effectiveness of law at the implementation stage, addressing the gap between the law-in-the-books and the lawin-action. They note how even domestic law varies in terms of its impact on behavior, so that binary distinctions between binding “hard law” and non-binding “soft law” are illusory.22 They find that the very concept of “binding” international law is highly suspect as an operational concept. Interestingly, international relations realists take a similar view from a rationalist perspective, although some working in this tradition in the United States are concerned that the United States may erroneously take international law seriously to its detriment.23 At the international level where centralized institutions are can provide “smokescreens” for the exercise of “administrative power” to the detriment of citizens. Jan Klabbers, The Undesirability of Soft Law, 67 NORDIC J. INT’L L. 381, 383, 387-91 (1998). 21 Charles Lipson, Why are Some International Agreements Informal?, 45 INT’L ORG. 495, 508 (1991). See also Kal Raustiala, Form and Substance in International Agreements, 99 AM. J. INT’L L. 581 (2005) [hereinafter Raustiala, Form and Substance] (distinguishing between form and substance of international agreements, as opposed to “hard law” and “soft law”); ANDREW GUZMAN, HOW INTERNATIONAL LAW WORKS: A RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY (2008) [hereinafter GUZMAN, RATIONAL CHOICE]; and Andrew Guzman, The Design of International Agreements, 16 EUR. J. INT’L L. 579 (2005) [hereinafter Guzman, Design]. Guzman states that “an agreement is soft if it is not a formal treaty.” Guzman, Design, supra, at 591. He finds that states rationally choose soft law because they wish to reduce the cost to their reputation of potentially violating it in light of uncertainty. 22 Some scholars accuse legal formalists of “elite ignorance” and “non-knowledge of the social.” See, e.g., Peter Goodrich, Law-Induced Anxiety: Legalists, Anti-Lawyers and the Boredom of Legality, 9 SOC. & LEGAL STUD. 143, 150 (2000); David Trubek et al., Soft Law, Hard Law, and European Integration: Toward a Theory of Hybridity, in NEW GOVERNANCE AND CONSTITUTIONALISM IN EUROPE AND THE US 65 (Joanne Scott & Gráinne de Búrca eds., 2006). 23 See, e.g., HANS J. MORGENTHAU, POLITICS AMONG NATIONS: THE STRUGGLE FOR POWER AND PEACE 3 (Kenneth Thompson ed., 6th ed. rev., 1985) (1948) (stating that the primary currency of international politics is power: all international relations are subordinate to, or take place as exertions of power calculated to advance the interests of the sovereign state); Hans J. Morgenthau, Positivism, Functionalism, and International Law, 34 AM. J. INT’L L. 260 (1940) (providing a classical realist perspective); Hans J. Morgenthau, The Problem of Neutrality, 7 U.K.C. L. REV. 109 (1939) ("the rules of international law referring to the rights and obligations of neutrals have no independent normative existence of their own; they are only the expression of certain legal, economic, political, and military conditions to which they owe their existence. Should these conditions change, these rules change also; should these conditions cease to exist, these rules cease to exist."); and Charles Krauthammer, The Curse of Legalism: International Law? It’s Purely Advisory, THE NEW REPUBLIC, Nov. 6, 1989, at 44 (taking a neoconservative policy-making perspective, arguing that “legalism starts with a naïve belief in the efficacy of law as a regulator of international conduct…; it is not only naïve but dangerous”); but cf. Richard Steinberg & Jonathan Zasloff, Power and International Law, 100 AM. J. INT’L L. 64 (2006). We thank Kal Raustiala for drawing out this point. 13 typically missing, most observers realize that “most international law is ‘soft’ in distinctive ways.”24 We take a pragmatic view that actors, working ex ante, use different types of agreements having different characteristics to further different aims. These different agreements can have different effects, ex post, which are often unpredicted, leading to new cycles of international law-making. The definition of legalization in international relations adopted in a special issue of International Organization provides a useful tool, in our view, in terms of actors’ choices from an ex ante perspective. Kenneth Abbott and his coauthors defined legalization in international relations as consisting of a spectrum of three factors (i) precision of rules; (ii) obligation; and (iii) delegation to a third-party decision-maker.25 International regimes vary in the extent of their legalization along these dimensions, which can give them a “harder” or “softer” legal character. In this respect, hard law “refers to legally binding obligations that are precise (or can be made precise through adjudication or the issuance of detailed regulations) and that delegate authority for interpreting and implementing the law.”26 International trade law, at least formally, comes closest to this ideal type, although as we will see, it too is soft (or can become soft) in certain areas.27 By contrast with this ideal-type of hard law, soft law can be defined as a residual category: “The realm of ‘soft law’ begins once legal arrangements are weakened along one or more of the dimensions of obligation, precision and delegation.”28 Thus, if an agreement is not formally binding, it is soft along one dimension. Similarly, if an agreement is formally binding but its content is vague so that the agreement leaves almost complete discretion to the parties as to its implementation, then the agreement is soft 24 Kenneth W. Abbott & Duncan Snidal, Hard and Soft Law in International Governance, 54 INT’L ORG. 421 (2000). 25 Kenneth W. Abbott at al., The Concept of Legalization, 54 INT’L ORG. 17 (2000). Abbott and Snidal work within a “rational design” approach to international institutions, in Barbara Koremenos, Charles Lipson & Duncan Snidal, The Rational Design of International Institutions, 55 INT’L ORG. 761 (2001). See also Guzman, Design, supra note. For an almost simultaneous use of these three attributes to differentiate harder from softer international law, see Alan E. Boyle, “Some Reflections on the Relationship of Treaties and Soft Law, 48:4 International Law Quarterly 901-913 (Oct. 1999). 26 Abbott & Snidal, Hard and Soft Law, supra note, at 37. 27 See our discussion in Part III below. In addition, from a formal perspective, international trade law does not have independent enforcement power. Rather WTO panels authorize a winning party to withdraw equivalent concessions, in an amount determined by the panel, in the event of non-compliance by the losing party. 28 Abbott & Snidal, Hard and Soft Law, supra note, at 38. 14 along this second dimension. Finally, if an agreement does not delegate any authority to a third party to monitor its implementation or to interpret and enforce it, then the agreement again can be soft because there is no third party providing a “focal point” around which parties can reassess their positions, and thus the parties can discursively justify their acts more easily in legalistic terms with less consequence, whether in terms of reputational costs or other sanctions.29 The key difference, we believe between scholars who evaluate hard and soft law in terms of a binary binding-non-binding distinction and those who evaluate it based on characteristics that vary along a continuum depends on whether they address international law primarily from an ex post enforcement perspective or an ex ante negotiating one. From an ex post enforcement perspective, legal formalists are right when they state that, to a judge, a given instrument is either legally binding or non-binding.30 However, from an ex ante negotiation perspective, actors have choices that, in practice, can render agreements relatively more or less binding in the three ways Abbott and Snidal have noted. We thus agree with their political economy approach that hard and soft law are best seen not as binary categories but rather as choices arrayed along a continuum. “Soft law” agreements can feature varying degrees of obligation, precision and delegation. They need not, that is, be uniformly low on all three counts. To give one example, under the Statute of the International Court of Justice, the two most important sources of international law are treaties and customary international law.31 Yet countries may sign treaties that only set forth generalized goals and calls for action that do not create rights or obligations. They thus should be considered to constitute soft law,32 at least along the dimension of “precision.” 29 Tom Ginsburg and Richard McAdams, for example, address how international litigation can construct “a focal point around which parties coordinate,” such that “third-party signals cause players to update their beliefs about the state of the world.” Tom Ginsburg and Richard H. McAdams, “Adjudicating in Anarchy: An Expressive Theory of International Dispute Resolution,” 45 Willam & Mary Law Rev. 1229, 1236 (2004). 30 That being said, a formally non-binding instrument can normatively affect a judge’s interpretation of the meaning of the terms of a formally binding instrument. 31 See Article 38 of the Statute of the International Court of Justice. Article 38 also lists judicial decisions and the writings of highly qualified publicists “as subsidiary means for the determination of rules of law.” 32 Christine Chinkin thus distinguishes between “legal soft law” which is formally binding but whose terms are so open-ended that there is no real obligation, from “non-legal soft law” which may be precise in content but is legally non-binding. Christine Chinkin, The Challenge of Soft Law: Development and Change in International Law, 38 INT’L & COMP. L.Q. 851 (1989). As she points out, under the Vienna 15 Other examples of non-binding instruments that constitute soft law include guidelines, codes of conduct, recommendations and action programs.33 However, despite their lack of legal obligation, these latter agreements can be quite precise in their substantive content and they can exercise persuasive authority in practice. For example, where international soft law instruments give rise to national implementing legislation, they can have hard law consequences from a legal positivist perspective.34 Similarly, soft law instruments can guide national regulatory practices without any formal change in domestic legislation, which is the focus of much of the work on transgovernmental networks in policy domains such as competition, banking, securities and insurance law.35 Some scholars with sociological, constructivist leanings have questioned the characterization of law in terms of these three attributes (precision, obligation and delegation) because it distracts from how law operates normatively.36 They likely do so because of their opposition to a presumption among legal positivists and rational institutionalists that “hardness” means binding rules interpreted and enforced by courts. In other words, their counterparts in interdisciplinary debates in international law and international relations — realist and rationalist institutionalist scholars — tend to discount the efficacy of soft law because it creates no binding obligation on states who Convention of the Law of Treaties, a treaty need not create any identifiable rights and obligations to be subject to its regime.” Id. Article 2 of the VCLT defines a “treaty” as “an international agreement concluded between States in written form and governed by international law.” See also Hartmut Hillgenberg, A Fresh Look at Soft Law, EUR. J. INT’L L. 10 499, 500 (1999) (distinguishing between nontreaty agreements and “treaties which contain… obligations which cannot be implemented because of their lack of specificity”). 33 Klabbers, Undesirability, supra note, at 385-86. 34 Chinkin, supra note, at 859. 35 See generally ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER, A NEW WORLD ORDER (2004). Raustiala notes how “network effects boost the existing incentives to standardize” by creating “incentives to harmonize and to promote capacity building abroad.” Kal Raustiala, The Architecture of International Cooperation: Transgovernmental Networks and the Future of International Law, 43 VA. J. INT’L L. 1, 9 (2002) (involving case studies of securities, competition and environmental regulation). He addresses processes of diffusion and convergence, noting the role of persuasion. Id. at 51-54. 36 See, e.g., Martha Finnemore & Stephen J. Toope, Alternatives to ‘Legalization’: Richer Views of Law and Politics, 55 INT’L ORG. 743 (2001) (taking a more sociological perspective, and critiquing Abbott et al’s formal definition of legalization because it obscures how law and legal norms actually operate in practice). We also recognize that these formal definitions can obscure the relative roles of “hard” and “soft” law in sociological terms—that is, from the way law and norms operate in the world, which indeed is what interests us. Binding dispute settlement can be ignored or simply reflect existing power asymmetries, so that “hard” law may in fact not be so “hard” in practice. Similarly, softer forms of law can be much more transformative of state and constituent conduct, which should be the real measure of law’s impact in the world. Despite these caveats, we believe that that hard/soft distinction does capture something important about the making and implementation of international law, and we find the distinction to be particularly useful for our analyses of how hard and soft law regimes and instruments interact. 16 can thus ignore it at their whim in light of their interests. For example, Richard Steinberg contends, from a realist perspective, that “most public international lawyers, realists and positivists, consider soft law to be inconsequential.”37 Similarly, Andrew Guzman maintains, from a rational institutionalist perspective, that “soft law represents a choice by the parties to enter into a weaker form of commitment.”38 Guzman and Steinberg focus on states’ pursuit of pre-determined interests. They do not address how states may change those interests through transnational processes of interaction, deliberation and persuasion coordinated through international institutions. Constructivists, in contrast, explicitly address how international regimes can lead states to change their perceptions of state interests.39 International law scholars frequently take such an approach, whether as regards international hard or soft law. For example, Abraham and Antonia Chayes contend, “what is left out of the institutionalist account is the active role of the regime in modifying preferences, generating new options, persuading the parties to move toward increasing compliance with regime norms, and guiding the evolution of the normative structure in the direction of the overall objectives of the regime.”40 Similarly Harold Koh stresses the “internalization” processes to which international law gives rise through iterative processes involving interpretation over time,41 and Tom Franks stresses the compliance pull of international law that is deemed 37 Richard H. Steinberg, In the Shadow of Law or Power? Consensus-Based Bargaining and Outcomes in the GATT/WTO, 56 INT’L ORG. 339, 340 (2002). 38 Guzman, Design, supra note, at 611. 39 “At bottom, constructivism concerns the issue of human consciousness: the role it plays in international relations, and the implications for the logic and methods of social inquiry of taking it seriously. Constructivists hold the view that the building blocks of international reality are ideational as well as material; that ideational factors have normative as well as instrumental dimensions; that they express not only individual but also collective intentionality; and that the meaning and significance of ideational factors are not independent of time and place.” John Gerard Ruggie, What Makes the World Hang Together? Neoutilitarianism and the Social Constructivist Challenge, 52 INT’L ORG. 855 (1998). 40 Abraham Chayes & Antonia Handler Chayes, On Compliance, 47 INT’L ORG. 175, 229 (1993); see also THOMAS M. FRANCK, THE POWER OF LEGITIMACY AMONG NATIONS (1990) (on the “compliance pull” of law); and Harold Koh, The 1998 Frankel Lecture: Bringing International Law Home, 35 HOUS. L. REV. 623 (1998) (on “internalization” processes). 41 The transnational legal process theory of Harold Koh addresses how states internalize legal norms through repeated “interaction,” including through the work of non-state actors, resulting in new “interpretation,” which is “internalized” within states at the domestic level. See Harold Koh, Transnational Legal Process, 75 NEB. L. REV. 181 (1996); Koh, Frankel Lecture, supra note; Koh, Why Do Nations Obey International Law?, 106 YALE L.J. 2599 (1997) (book review). See also Paul Berman, Seeing Beyond the Limits of International Law, 84 TEX. L. REV. 1265 (2006) (book review). 17 legitimate in its procedures.42 More recently, Ryan Goodman and Derek Jinks adopt an “acculturation” approach as to how international law has effects, incorporating sociological insights, and, in particular, those of the “world culture” theoretical and empirical projects of Meyer, Boli and Boyle.43 From the constructivist perspective, soft law mechanisms can be as or more effective than hard law by creating settings in which states engage in open-ended discussions to reach better and more effective policy because they are less wary of rigid hard law consequences. In sum, the typology used by Abbott and Snidal does not prejudge these instruments’ relative value. Rather, the typology simply characterizes different instruments which actors may choose from an ex ante perspective in terms of their precision, binding legal obligation and delegation along a continuum. We find this typology and continuum to be particularly useful for our analyses of how hard and soft law instruments and regimes interact, and thus we adopt the definition of Abbott and Snidal for our purposes. B. Advantages and Disadvantages of Hard and Soft Law as Alternatives States and private actors have increasingly used a wide range of instruments having a relatively harder or softer legal nature in terms of precision, obligation and delegation to advance their aims. These instruments offer different advantages and disadvantages in different contexts, involving factors at the domestic and international levels. They are sometimes used alone and sometimes combined dynamically over time, resulting in a complex hybrid of hard and soft law instruments. In this section, we address the use of hard and soft law instruments as alternatives in light of their respective attributes and deficiencies before turning to an assessment of how they interact. The quantitative growth in the use of international hard and soft law instruments reflects the breadth and intensification of economic globalization, by which we mean “a process of widening, deepening and speeding up of worldwide connectedness, in 42 FRANCK, supra note. See, e.g., Ryan Goodman & Derek Jinks, How to Influence States: Socialization and International Human Rights, 54 DUKE L.J. 621 (2004); and Elizabeth Boyle & John Meyer, Modern Law as a Secularized and Global Model: Implications for the Sociology of Law, in GLOBAL PRESCRIPTIONS: THE PRODUCTION, EXPORTATION, AND IMPORTATION OF A NEW LEGAL ORTHODOXY 65, 65 (Yves Dezalay & Bryant Garth eds., 2002. 43 18 particular in the economic sphere.”44 The very emergence of the soft law concept reflects the multiplication of producers of international law in this context, including not only foreign ministries, but also sector-specific transgovernmental networks, supranational bureaucracies, multinational corporations and business associations, and international non-governmental organizations.45 These groups generally do not have the authority to create binding international law in a traditional sense, which is reserved to states, yet they use non-binding instruments to advance their policy goals, instruments which may be subsequently transformed into binding hard law, at either the national or international levels.46 Private actors can also work with and through states to create binding hard law. As John Braithwaite and Peter Drahos find in their masterful study of thirteen areas of global business regulation, business actors play frequently leading roles. First, Braithwaite and Drahos find that “state regulation follows industry self-regulatory practice more than the reverse.”47 Janet Levit’s recent work on the law of documentary letters of credit provides an excellent example.48 Second, corporate actors enroll states to advance their aims. In this respect, Braithwaite and Drahos find that “US corporations exert more power in the 44 We adapt this definition from DAVID HELD ET AL., GLOBAL TRANSFORMATIONS: POLITICS, ECONOMICS 2 (1999). Held et al. also have a broader, more complex definition of globalization which includes cultural as well as economic phenomena: “A process (or set of processes) which embodies a transformation in the spatial organization of social relations and transactions – assessed in terms of their extensity, intensity, velocity and impact – generating transcontinental or interregional flows and networks of activity, interaction and the exercise of power.” Id. at 16. 45 Anna di Robilant, Genealogies of Soft Law, 54 AM. J. COMP. L. 499, 500 (2006). In an insightful article, she notes two competing visions regarding the genealogy of soft law. One vision, adopted by those favoring a liberal market and the role of private market actors focuses on the tradition of the law merchant, or lex mercatoria. The other vision, adopted by those favoring stronger social policies, focuses on the European tradition of legal pluralism, addressing the interaction of multiple, overlapping social orders. She finds that these two orientations and their heritages reflect on-going power struggles. Id. at 503. See also John J. Kirtin & Michael J. Trebilcock, Introduction to HARD CHOICE, SOFT LAW: VOLUNTARY STANDARDS IN GLOBAL TRADE, ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIAL GOVERNANCE 3, 9 (John J. Kirtin & Michael J. Trebilcock eds., 2004) (contending that “soft law, in contrast [to hard law that relies primarily on state authority], refers to regimes that rely primarily on the participation and resources of nongovernmental actors in the construction, operation and implementation of governance arrangements”). As Robilant points out, many of the advocates of soft law challenge “state centrism,” whether they be advocates of liberal markets or of socially marginalized groups. Robilant, supra note, at 539. 46 Functional state agencies, however, can play the leading roles in areas within their competence, which can result in hard law. BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, supra note, at 479-85 (on decentering the state); and Slaughter, World Order, at 5 supra note… (on disaggregating the state). 47 Id. at 481. 48 Janet Levit, Bottom-Up Lawmaking Through a Pluralist Lens: The ICC Banking Commission and the Transnational Regulation of Letters of Credit, 57 EMORY L.J. 101 (2008). AND CULTURE 19 world system than corporations of other states because they can enroll the support of the most powerful state in the world.”49 As an institutional form, hard law features many advantages. In particular, rationalist scholars find that: • Hard law instruments allow states to commit themselves more credibly to international agreements. Hard law instruments make state commitments more credible because they increase the cost of reneging, whether on account of legal sanctions or on account of the costs to a state’s reputation where it is found to have acted in violation of its legal commitments.50 • Hard law treaties are more credible because they can have direct legal effects in national jurisdictions (being “self-executing”), or they can require domestic legal enactment. Where treaty obligations are implemented through domestic legislation, they create new tools that mobilize domestic actors, increasing the audience costs of a violation and thus making their commitments more credible.51 • Hard law instruments solve problems of incomplete contracting by creating mechanisms for the interpretation and elaboration of legal commitments over time.52 • Hard law instruments better permit states to monitor and enforce their commitments, including through the use of dispute settlement bodies such as courts.53 49 BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, supra note, at 482. For example, in their chapter on global telecommunications regulation, they find that “to a considerable extent states are agents of corporate actors in the telecommunications field.” Id. at 341. See also GREGORY SHAFFER, DEFENDING INTERESTS: PUBLICPRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS IN WTO LITIGATION (2003) (in the international trade dispute settlement context). 50 States are arguably particularly concerned with their reputation for compliance. Andrew Guzman contends that states’ calculus over the reputational costs of non-compliance is the primary factor for explaining state compliance with international law. Guzman, Design, supra note. See also Abbott & Snidal, Hard and Soft Law, supra note; and Lipson, supra note, at 508 (“the more formal and public the agreement, the higher the reputational costs of noncompliance”). Cf George W. Downs & Michael A. Jones, Reputation, Compliance, and International Law, 31 J. Legal Studies 95, 108-109 (examining the development of segmented reputations). 51 Abbott & Snidal, Hard and Soft Law, supra note. 52 Id. 20 States, as well as private actors working with and through state representatives, thus tend to use hard law where the benefits of cooperation are great and the potential for opportunism and its costs are high.54 To control for the risks of opportunism, they can create third party monitoring and enforcement mechanisms, as under the WTO committee, trade policy review and dispute settlement systems. These monitoring and enforcement mechanisms reduce the transaction costs of subsequent interstate interaction through providing an ongoing forum for interpreting, applying, enforcing and elaborating agreed rules.55 Yet hard law also entails significant costs. It can create formal commitments that restrict the behavior of states, thus infringing on national sovereignty in potentially sensitive areas. As a result, it can encourage states to bargain fiercely and at length regarding the legally binding commitments into which they are entering which will continue to apply over time. Because states are more likely to drag out negotiations over legally binding commitments, the use of hard law can increase contracting and audience costs. In addition, hard law agreements can be more difficult to amend to adapt to changing circumstances. Therefore writing detailed binding agreements may be wasteful because it can force states to plan for contingent events that may not occur, and can lead to undesired rigidity or prevent agreement altogether.56 Trubek, Cottrell and Nance, in their study of European employment and fiscal policy coordination, thus find that hard law can often be undesirable. Hard law is particularly problematic, they contend, where it presupposes a fixed condition when situations of uncertainty demand constant experimentation and adjustment, where it requires uniformity when a tolerance of national diversity is needed, and where it is difficult to change when frequent change may be essential.57 53 Id. at 38. Id. at 429. 55 Id. at 430 56 Id. at 433 57 David M. Trubek et al., Soft Law, Hard Law, and European Integration: Toward a Theory of Hybridity, in NEW GOVERNANCE AND CONSTITUTIONALISM IN EUROPE AND THE US 65 (Joanne Scott & Gráinne de Búrca eds., 2006); David Trubek and Louise Trubek….. These arguments also support the use of soft law in purely domestic settings as advocated by the “new governance literature.” See Scott and de Burca 2006. 54 21 Defenders of soft law argue that soft law instruments offer significant offsetting advantages over hard law. They find, in particular, that: • Soft law instruments are easier and less costly to negotiate. • Soft law instruments impose lower “sovereignty costs” on states in sensitive areas. • Soft law instruments provide greater flexibility for states to cope with uncertainty and learn over time. • Soft law instruments allow states to be more ambitious and engage in “deeper” cooperation than they would if they had to worry about enforcement. • Soft law instruments cope better with diversity. • Soft law instruments are directly available to non-state actors, including international secretariats, state administrative agencies, sub-state public actors, and business associations and other non-governmental organizations.58 Abbott and Snidal, for example, contend that states use soft law where contracting costs increase, whether because of the number of parties involved, factual uncertainty, domestic ratification challenges, politically charged issue areas or distributional asymmetries. They note how, in these contexts, “states can limit their legal obligation through hortatory language, exceptions, reservations and the like,” such as safeguard and rebalancing clauses under the WTO.59 Both rationalist and constructivist scholars recognize the potential advantages of soft law instruments, but they do so in different ways. While rationalist-oriented scholars 58 For good discussions on the purported strengths of soft law, see, e.g., Lipson, supra note, at 500-01, 51427 (discussing the strengths of “informal agreements”); Abbott & Snidal, Hard and Soft Law, supra note, at 38-39; Trubek et al., Toward a Theory of Hybridity, supra note; Kirtin & Trebilcock, supra note; and Francesco Sindico, Soft Law and the Elusive Quest for Sustainable Global Governance, 19 LEIDEN J. INT’L L. 829, 832 (2006). See also Hillgenberg, supra note, at 501, 504 (noting the “simpler procedures’ at international level, “facilitating more rapid finalization,” and at the national level, avoiding “cumbersome domestic approval procedures” such as before the US Senate). Any agreement involves some amount of negotiating costs, but states are more likely to entail higher costs with hard law agreements because they must exercise more caution in negotiating and drafting them because of the greater consequences of a subsequent violation. 59 Kenneth W. Abbott & Duncan Snidal, Pathways to Cooperation, in THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL LAW ON INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION: THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES 50, 54 (Eyal Benvenisti & Moshe Hirsch eds., 2004). 22 focus on the reduction of contracting and sovereignty costs under soft law, constructivist scholars stress how soft law can “facilitate constitutive processes such as persuasion, learning, argumentation, and socialization.”60 While rationalist scholars note the importance of soft law instruments for generating information leading to common understandings in situations of uncertainty, constructivist scholars contend that soft law instruments can help states to develop common norms and a sense of a collective enterprise. For both rationalists and constructivists, thus, soft law can create mechanisms for parties to learn about consequences before obligations are made binding. This process occurred under the Montreal Protocol for Protection of the Ozone, an agreement to protect a global commons, the earth’s atmosphere. Soft law instruments can bring a broad array of participants together, as under a framework convention, in a process that over time permits them to gain trust, leading to harder obligations in the future.61 As Braithwaite and Drahos write, “[t]he idea here, supported by research evidence, is that concern, norms and capacity build faster when they are not induced by threat. It is best to introduce threat only after the progress that can be made without it has been secured” — that is, to at least start with soft law.62 Soft law instruments, nonetheless, have obvious disadvantages. First, from a normative perspective, if soft law instruments are effective, they can be criticized for their relative obscurity, since they can remove law-making from democratic oversight, such that provisions with distributive implications are not fully discussed within 60 Trubek et al., Toward a Theory of Hybridity, supra note, at 75. Similarly, Trubek and Trubek note how the proponents of soft law find that it is particularly appropriate where there is uncertainty and a vast amount of diversity among participants, requiring a need for experimentation, flexibility and revisability in transnational processes of cooperation and coordination. David M. Trubek & Louise G. Trubek, Hard and Soft Law in the Construction of Social Europe: the Role of the Open Method of Co-ordination, 11 EUR. L.J. 343, 353 (2005). Taking such an approach in the social policy field, they note how soft law processes can lead to policy change through processes of shaming, diffusion through mimesis, diffusion through discourse, deliberation, experimentation and learning. Id. at 356-58. Compare Braithwaite and Drahos’ focus on knowledge creation: “People often feel cynical about international meetings which are just talkshops, yet it is such talk that constitutes the epistemic communities which enable reciprocal adjustment and modeling to happen. The talk within epistemic communities constitutes and transmits knowledge and thereby enables action… Exchange of knowledge that leads to the discovery of enlightened mutual selfinterest is an increasingly important mechanism of globalization.” BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, supra note, at 292. 61 Jutta Brunnee & Stephen J. Toope, Environmental Security and Freshwater Resources: Ecosystem Regime Building, 91 AM. J. INT’L L. 26 (1997). 62 BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, supra note, at 295. See also Goodman & Jinks, Socializing States, supra note… (regarding the advantages of non-coercive mechanisms of acculturation). 23 legislative or other government bodies.63 Second, from the perspective of effectiveness, soft law instruments create little or no legal obligation and provide no binding third-party dispute settlement to resolve disputes among the parties and fill in the details of incomplete contracts. Soft law instruments, depending on their level of precision, may also make it difficult to determine whether a state is acting in accordance with its commitments and thus create greater opportunities to evade responsibility.64 For example, the OECD created a Financial Action Task Force (FATF) of financial experts which issued guidelines which limit sovereignty costs because of their soft law nature. Some commentators, however, have found that the task force guidelines have been largely ineffective in leading to policy change.65 Similarly, at the 1992 Rio Summit, the parties only agreed to a non-binding set of principles and an Agenda 21 to create a “comprehensive plan of action,” contrary to the demands of environmental nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) for a hard law treaty. Skeptics question the effectiveness of these soft law instruments. They contend that much of international law, when it lacks teeth, can be simply symbolic, constituting a form of junk law.66 It would nonetheless be a mistake, in our view, to view hard law instruments as always preferable to soft law instruments from the standpoint of effectiveness, even though states may sometimes use soft law instruments only to paper over differences. As Kal Raustiala points out, we must distinguish between the concepts of compliance (as 63 See Klabbers, Undesirability, supra note… See also Levit, supra note…, at 108-10 (finding deficiencies in transparency and accountability of bottom-up private sector lawmaking, as regards letters-of-credit rules). 64 Abbott & Snidal, Hard and Soft Law, supra note, at 446. See, e.g., Emilie M. Hafner-Burton, Trading Human Rights: How Preferential Trade Agreements Influence Government Repression, 59 INT’L ORG. 593 (2005) (on the weakness of the global soft law human rights regime); and Martin Rhodes & Manuele Citi, New Modes of Governance in the European Union: A Critical Survey and Analysis, in THE HANDBOOK OF EUROPEAN UNION POLITICS 463 (Knud Erik Jørgensen, Mark A. Pollack & Ben Rosamond eds., 2007) (on the purported failure of the EU’s soft law “Open Method of Coordination”). 65 Beth Simmons, International Efforts Against Money Laundering, in COMMITMENT AND COMPLIANCE 244-63 (Dinah Shelton ed., 2000); cf. Maira Rocha Machado 2008 (on file). 66 Cf. MURRAY EDELMAN, THE SYMBOLIC USES OF POLITICS (1964); JACK L. GOLDSMITH & ERIC A. POSNER, THE LIMITS OF INTERNATIONAL LAW 43 (2005) ("[CIL] is not an exogenous influence on state behavior."); Raustiala, Form and Substance, supra note, at 608 n. 177 (“Realists might argue that pledges are simply what political scientists call ‘cheap talk’: symbolic, costless action.”); Lawrence Susskind & Connie Ozawa, Negotiating More Effective International Environmental Agreements, in THE INTERNATIONAL POLITICS OF THE ENVIRONMENT: ACTORS, INTERESTS, AND INSTITUTIONS 147 (Andrew Hurrell & Benedict Kingsbury eds., 1992) (“The signing of a convention can ‘take the heat off’ political leaders, allowing symbolic but empty promises to substitute for real improvements. Nations and leaders that have absolutely no commitment to improving environmental quality can sign a convention and claim credit for ‘doing something’ when, in fact, there will be no improvement.”). 24 with hard law obligations) and effectiveness.67 He writes, “compliance as a concept draws no causal linkage between a rule and behavior, but simply identifies a conformity between the rule and behavior. To speak of effectiveness is to speak directly of causality: to claim that a rule is ‘effective’ is to claim that it led to certain behavior or outcomes, which may or may not meet the legal standard of compliance.”68 In terms of the law-inaction, we are less concerned with formal compliance, which may mean little if the obligations reflect no policy change, than with effectiveness, in terms of attaining policy goals. Advocates of soft law as an alternative contend that it can be more effective in practice than many formally binding treaties. Abbott and Snidal’s rational institutionalist analysis suggests that the choice of hard and soft law instruments as alternatives may simply reflect the existence of a collaboration or coordination game, as exemplified by the use of game theory in the rationalist international relations literature.69 To recall, collaboration games arise when two or more states would benefit from cooperation, but face incentives to renege on their agreements, as in prisoners dilemma and collective action models. The solution is “collaboration,” in which states can agree to mutual cooperation and rely on formal regimes to provide iteration, monitoring and enforcement of agreements, and hence reduce the temptation to renege. Coordination games, in contrast, arise when states seek to avoid a particular outcome, and need to coordinate their behavior in order to do so. In game-theoretic terms, these situations involve multiple equilibria, any of which would allow the players to avoid their mutually undesirable outcome. In cases of coordination games, soft law standards may alone be effective because once parties agree on a common standard, the agreement becomes largely self-enforcing, and thus hard law obligation, monitoring and enforcement are not required. In contrast, where states have a 67 Kal Raustalia, Compliance and Effectiveness in International Regulatory Cooperation, 32 CASE W. RES. J. INT’L L. 387, 398 (2000); Kal Raustiala & Anne-Marie Slaughter, International Law, International Relations, and Compliance, in HANDBOOK OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 538 (Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth A. Simmons eds., 2002); and Kal Raustiala & David G. Victor, Conclusions, in THE IMPLEMENTATION AND EFFECTIVENESS OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL COMMITMENTS: THEORY AND PRACTICE 659, 684-86 (David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala & Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., 1998). On the “depth” of cooperation, i.e. cooperative agreements that require a greater change in state behavior relative to the status quo, see Downs, Rocke and Barsoom 1998. 68 Raustiala, Compliance and Effectiveness, supra note. 69 We examine and provide citations to the theoretical background literature in international relations in Part II. 25 common interest in cooperation (as in a Prisoner’s Dilemma game), then they should favor hard law instruments to facilitate the monitoring of other parties’ compliance and reduce the possibilities of opportunism and cheating. For example, David Zaring has found that soft law instruments have played an important role in the formation and global diffusion of capital adequacy standards for banks, and of securities regulations for operators in capital and commodity markets. He finds that, “even though Basle Committee recommendations [for capital adequacy requirements’ ‘have no binding force,’ they have been ‘applied in all countries represented on the Committee’ and ‘almost universally applied in non-member countries.’”70 Similarly, he found that the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have adopted non-binding standards promulgated by the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO).71 These case studies entail primarily a coordination game in which states agree on a standard which afterwards becomes self-enforcing. Yet soft law instruments may also be valuable in cooperation game situations which, as we will argue in Part II, also involve a bargaining element over the terms of cooperation and can have distributive implications. Janet Levit, for example, in a detailed empirical study, shows how countries have used an informal agreement named the “Arrangement on Guidelines for Officially Supported Export Credits” to reach agreement over the regulation of government support of trade finance with which governments have complied over time. She concludes that “[t]he Arrangement works… because it dynamically engages Participants within a malleable form that is hospitable to innovation, evolution, and correction. It works because the nitty-gritty details force Participants to dialogue and engage the document’s strengths and weaknesses. And it works because it embodies a flexible, practical understanding of compliance itself that 70 David T. Zaring, Informal Procedure, Hard and Soft, in International Adminstration, 5 CHI. J. INT’L L. 547, 559 (2005) (quoting BIS supervisor Andrew Crockett). Former Chairman of the Basle Committee Peter Cooke summarizes how such a soft law instrument can work: “The great advantage of such a forum [the Basle Committee] is that people talk very frankly about their particular experiences, and then we had a much better chance of putting in place sensible, practical and well-judged regulations to prevent further regulatory failures.” BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, supra note, at 118 (citing Atul Shah, The Dynamics of International Bank Regulation, 4 J. FINANCIAL REGULATION & COMPLIANCE 371, 375. 71 Zaring, Informal Procedure, supra note, at 566-69. See also Raustiala, Architecture, supra note, at 29 (noting the use of MOUs between securities regulators, in addition to the work of IOSCO, finding that the US SEC is “at the center of a web of transgovernmental contacts”). 26 invites rather than alienates.”72 Levit’s study involves a cooperation game in which states should be concerned with opportunism. Here a soft law instrument, nonetheless, appears to have helped shape state and private behavior. In sum, hard and soft law instruments offer different advantages for different contexts involving a range of factors that actors consider. For these reasons, a growing number of scholars in law and political science have advocated a pragmatic approach, selecting alternative hard and soft law approaches depending on the characteristics of the issue and the negotiating and institutional context in question. Scholars have noted, in particular, how hard and soft law instruments may be effectively combined to lead to greater cooperation. Yet as Abbott and Snidal write, while “soft law sometimes [is] designed as a way station to harder legalization, … often it is preferable on its own terms” as an alternative.73 C. Hard and Soft Law Interaction as Complements Although the respective costs and benefits of hard and soft law remain a subject of contention, legal and political science scholars have moved increasingly towards a view that hard and soft international law can build upon each other as complementary tools for international problem-solving. These scholars contend that hard and soft law mechanisms can build upon each other in predominantly two ways. Non-binding soft law can lead the way to binding hard law, and binding hard law can subsequently be elaborated through soft law instruments. For example, a leading US international law casebook introduces the concept of soft law in terms of how “soft law instruments are consciously used to generate support for the promulgation of treaties or to help generate customary international law norms [i.e. binding hard law],” and how “treaties and state practice give rise to soft law that supplements and advances treaty and customary norms.”74 Scholars thus take a pragmatic policy-oriented approach to show how hard and soft law instruments provide not only alternative tools for cooperation, but also serve as 72 Janet Levit, The Dynamics of International Trade Finance Regulation: The Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, 45 HARV. INT’L L.J. 65, 141 (2004). 73 Abbott & Snidal, Hard and Soft Law, supra note, at 421, 423 (“We argue that international actors choose to order their relations through international law and design treaties and other legal arrangements to solve specific substantive and political problems”). 74 Dunoff et al. 2006: 95. 27 complements of each other in dynamic processes of legalization, leading to greater international cooperation and coordination over time.75 These scholars’ views regarding hard and soft law complements can be divided into the same three camps: (1) positivist legal scholars who find that soft law is inferior to hard law but should not be discarded because it can potentially lead to hard law; (2) rationalist scholars with a political economy orientation who view soft law as a complement to hard law which serves state interests in many contexts, including because the hard law option is not initially available because of its costs; and (3) constructivist scholars who view soft law as a complement to hard law which can facilitate dialogic and experimentalist transnational and domestic processes which transform norms, understandings and perceptions of state interests. --------------------------------Insert Table 1 about here --------------------------------Positivist legal scholars find that soft law is inferior to hard law because it lacks formally binding obligations which are interpreted and enforced by courts, and it thus fails to generate jurisprudence over time.76 For this reason, these scholars view soft law as a second-best alternative to hard law, either as a way-station on the way to hard law, or as a fall-back when hard law approaches fail.77 Kirton and Trebilcock, for example, in a volume regarding the use of soft and hard law in global trade, environment and social governance, find “strong support for the familiar feeling that soft law is a second-best substitute for a first-best hard law, being created when and because the relevant hard law does not exist and the intergovernmental negotiations to produce it have failed.”78 Sindico likewise writes, “[s]oft law, and voluntary standards in particular, are a stage in the creation of international legal norms. It is as a pioneer of hard law that soft law finds 75 See, e.g., DINAH SHELTON, COMMITMENT AND COMPLIANCE: THE ROLE OF NON-BINDING NORMS IN THE INTERNATIONAL LEGAL SYSTEM (2000) (“combinations may be essential to achieve specific goals”); Chinkin, supra note, at 853. 76 See, e.g., Klabbers, Redundancy, supra note. 77 See Weil, supra note; Klabbers, Undesirability, supra note. 78 Kirtin & Trebilcock, supra note, at 24. 28 its raison d’être in the normative challenge for sustainable global governance”79 Sindico, for example, views the corporate social responsibility (CSR) movement in terms of “the beginning of a step towards comprehensive hard law in this field.”80 These scholars tend to view soft law solely in terms of its relationship to a hard law ideal. In her valuable introduction to a special volume on soft law organized by the American Society of International Law, for example, Dinah Shelton categorizes soft law in the following five ways, each of which is linked to positivist conceptions of hard law: “(i) Elaborative soft law, that is principles that provide guidance to the interpretation, elaboration, or application of hard law [i.e. soft law which builds from hard law]… (ii) Emergent hard law, that is principles that are first formulated in non-binding form with the possibility, or even aspiration, of negotiating a subsequent treaty, or harden into binding custom through the development of state practice and opinio juris [i.e. soft law which builds to hard law]… (iii) Soft law as evidence of the existence of hard obligations [i.e. soft law which builds to hard customary international law]. (iv) Parallel soft and hard law, that is similar provisions articulated in both hard and soft forms allowing the soft version to act as a fall-back provision. (v) Soft law as a source of legal obligation, through acquiescence and estoppel, perhaps against the original intentions of the parties.”81 79 Sindico, supra note, at 846. He elaborates that soft law “must be considered to be a step in the progressive development of international norms;” that soft law and voluntary stands “must be a phase in the normative creation of international rules;” and that voluntary standards should be seen to “constitute the first step towards the creation of hard law in the future.” Similarly Karl Zemanek speaks of soft law in terms of “tools for shaping the future development of the law, either by building opinio juris for custom [customary international law] or by shaping a consensus for future multilateral conventions.” Zemanek 1998: 858-859. 80 Sindico, supra note, at 836. 81 SHELTON, COMMITMENT AND COMPLIANCE, supra note, at 30-31 (while putting forth this categorization, Shelton admits that it “is problematic in that it defines soft law in terms of its distinction from hard law, and not in its own terms”). Shelton’s fourth category has also been referred to as co-regulation: a regulatory regime premised on both mandatory government regulation and voluntary self-regulation or regulatory measures with both binding and non-binding elements. See, e.g., K. Gordon, Rules for the Global 29 Reinicke and Witte likewise stress, in their cross-cutting overview in the same volume, how soft law agreements “can and often do represent the first important element in an evolutionary process that shapes legal relationships among and between multiple actors, facilitating and ultimately enhancing the effectiveness and efficiency of transnational policy-making.”82 Similarly, Kirton and Trebilcock conclude that “at best, it [soft law], is a complement.”83 Abbott and Snidal, in contrast, taking a rational institutionalist political economy approach, are agnostic as to whether hard or soft law is preferable because they focus on varying state interests in different contexts. Sometimes states prefer hard law and sometimes soft law to advance their joint policy aims. In their work on the “pathways to cooperation,” Abbott and Snidal nonetheless define three pathways of which two explicitly involve the progressive hardening of law. The three pathways are: the use of a framework convention which subsequently deepens in the precision of its coverage; the use of a plurilateral agreement which subsequently broadens in its membership; and the use of a soft law instrument which subsequently leads to binding legal commitments. They note how these three pathways can be “blended” and “sequenced,” once more resulting in a mutually-reinforcing, evolutionary interaction between hard and soft law mechanisms.84 In Abbott and Snidal’s first pathway, states enter into a binding framework agreement which is soft in terms of its substantive content. These framework provisions are then elaborated over time. Abbott and Snidal find that this strategy can be useful where there is technical uncertainty so that the parties need to facilitate information generation to reach a common understanding of a problem and its solution. They note how constructivist-oriented scholars promote this approach, contending that a framework convention can catalyze dialogic processes of transnational norm creation and community Economy: Synergies between Voluntary and Binding Approaches (OECD Working Paper on International Investment No. 1999/3). 82 Reininke & Witte, supra note, at 76. 83 Kirtin & Trebilcock, supra note, at 27. 84 Abbott & Snidal, Hard and Soft Law, supra note, at 80. 30 building.85 Abbott and Snidal, however, remain agnostic on this point, finding that framework conventions can be useful even if they do not catalyze processes that affect state perceptions of their interests. The building of the ozone regime is a classic example of successful use of this pathway, starting with the framework Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer and leading to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, with its binding commitments, and the Protocol’s subsequent amendment that led to a ban on the use of certain substances.86 The Vienna Convention helped to foster cooperative research and information exchange and laid a foundation for further negotiations that led to binding commitments and an enforcement mechanism. The second pathway suggested by Abbott and Snidal is for states to start with a plurilateral agreement which other states may join over time. They note how this pathway permits states which are uncertain about other states’ level of commitment to screen members. By excluding non-members from the benefits of this regime, the original participants can create incentives for other states to join over time.87 The history of the EU and the WTO with their sequential increases in membership are examples of successful uses of this pathway. Similarly, twenty-five nations signed the original Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer, while over 200 countries were members of the Montreal Protocol at the start of 2008. The third pathway recommended by Abbott and Snidal directly involves using non-binding soft law tools to arrive eventually at hard law obligations. Abbott and Snidal find that this pathway should be used, for example, if there is initial uncertainty regarding an international agreement’s domestic political implications. They maintain that this mechanism “normatively permits entrepreneurs to persuade skeptics” at the domestic level to facilitate the signing and ratification of a binding agreement.88 They point to a 85 Abbott & Snidal, Pathways to Cooperation, supra note, at (referring to Brunnee & Toope, supra note). Cf. George W. Downs, David M. Rocke & Peter N. Barsoom, The Transformational Model of International Regime Design: Triumph of Hope or Experience, 465 COLUMBIA J. TRANSNAT’L L. (2000). 86 See, e.g., RICHARD BENEDICK, OZONE DIPLOMACY (1991). 87 Lloyd Gruber offers a realist variant of this approach, noting how powerful states can create regimes that further their particular interests through wielding “go-it-alone” power, leaving less powerful states little choice. Gruber contends that even though these states may have been worse off with the regime than without it, the option of no regime no longer exists, so that they must either choose between exclusion from the benefits of the new regime or becoming a member. See LOYD GRUBER, RULING THE WORLD: POWER POLITICS AND THE RISE OF SUPRANATIONAL INSTITUTIONS (2000). 88 Abbott & Snidal, Pathways to Cooperation, supra note, at 70. 31 number of successful examples of this strategy, such as the 1985 Food and Agricultural Organizastion (FAO) voluntary code of conduct on pesticides which eventually led to the 1998 Rotterdam Convention on the Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Certain Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade,89 and the 1994 OECD Recommendation on Bribery in International Business Transactions that led to the 1997 OECD Anti-bribery Convention.90 Analysts of international environmental agreements contend that soft law instruments have “set the pace for hard law development” in this area, pointing to case studies of “marine pollution, transboundary air pollution, and fisheries subsidy control.”91 For example, Ronald Mitchell has addressed how soft law instruments helped pioneer a path toward more effective regulation of oil spills at sea.92 Finally, constructivist-oriented scholars likewise focus on how hard and soft law are used as complements. Trubek and his co-authors, for example, contend that soft law instruments can help to generate knowledge (as through the use of benchmarking, peer review, and exchange of good practices), develop shared ideas, build trust, and, if desirable, establish “non-binding standards that can eventually harden into binding rules once uncertainties are reduced and a higher degree of consensus ensues.”93 Janet Levit, working in a legal pluralist framework, finds that international soft law instruments generate normativity that affects both subsequent hard law enactments and judicial decisions.94 She finds that hard and soft law regimes engage in ongoing interactions in which each is reconstitutive of the other.95 Braithwaite and Drahos point both to the importance of using framework conventions and soft law as a first step which “can, over 89 See also Mohamed Ali Mekouar, Pesticides and Chemicals: The Requirement of Prior Informed Consent, in COMMITMENT AND COMPLIANCE (Dinah Shelton ed,. 2000); M. PALLEMAERTS, TOXINS AND TRANSNATIONAL LAW: INTERNATIONAL AND EUROPEAN REGULATION OF TOXIC SUBSTANCES AS LEGAL SYMBOLISM (2003). 90 See also Kenneth W. Abbott & Duncan Snidal, Values and Interests: International Legalization in the Fight Against Corruption, 31 J. LEGAL STUD. 141 (2002). 91 Jorgen Wettestad et al., Soft Law, Hard Law, and Effective Implementation of International Environmental Norms, GLOBAL ENV’TL POLITICS, vol. 6:3, 104, at 105 (2006). 92 Ronald B. Mitchell, Regime Design Matters: International Oil Pollution and Treaty Compliance, 48 INT’L ORG. 425 (1994). 93 Trubek et al., Toward a Theory of Hybridity, supra note, at 32. See also Trubek & Trubek, supra note. 94 Levit, supra note…, at 132-141. Levit takes a “bottom’s up” “legal pluralist” approach which examines how transnational lawmaking involves both “an informal process of norm creation” and “a hardening process whereby such informal norms embed in official legal systems.” Id. at 110. Levit contends: “The drama in these bottom-up cases is how the informal, practice-based rules escape relatively confined groups and ‘bubble-up’ to become ‘law.’” 95 Id. at 107, 162. 32 time be more detailed through rule-making.”96 These authors contend that neither hard nor soft law provisions should necessarily be privileged because states and non-state actors need flexibility to address situations that involve uncertainty and require experimentation. Thus, while these scholars also examine how hard and soft law can be combined in “hybrid constellations” in a complementary manner, they differ from positivist and rationalist scholars in stressing that hard law can and often should serve as a fall-back base line for soft law experimentation, as opposed to only soft law being viewed as a fall-back.97 Some scholars working in an experimentalist “new governance” tradition go further, arguing that soft law approaches should generally be privileged to promote responsive governance.98 II. Theorizing International Hard and Soft Law Interaction: Power, Distributive Conflict, Regime Complexes and Implementation The existing literature on hard and soft law typically takes as its starting assumption the possibility of joint gains from cooperation among states, and proceeds to explore the advantages and disadvantages, the choice, and the effectiveness of hard and soft law approaches to international cooperation. We agree that the prospect of joint gains is an important prerequisite for international cooperation, and we have seen in Part I that such prospects continue to exist for international policy cooperation. Nevertheless, we cannot fully understand our central question – the interaction of hard and soft law – without considering the ways in which power, distributional conflict, regime complexes, and the challenges of implementation affect how hard and soft law regimes interact, and whether they will do so in a mutually-reinforcing manner. Indeed, we argue below that the harmonious, complementary interaction of hard and soft law 96 BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, supra note… at 261-62, Braithwaite and Drahos also address the role of modeling as a key mechanism for the creation of global business law, and the importance of epistemic communities. They found modeling “to be an important mechanism in every domain” of the thirteen that they studied. Id. at 539. The write that “[i]f regulations and procedural rules are the hardware of international regimes, the knowledge and discourses of epistemic communities of actors are its software.” Id. at 501. 97 See, e.g., Trubek et al., Toward a Theory of Hybridity, supra note….. 98 See, e.g., Simon 2005; and Sable and Simon 2005 33 approaches to international cooperation relies on a hitherto unspecified set of scope conditions, including in particular a low level of distributional conflict among the players. These conditions may hold in certain areas, we maintain, but there are good theoretical and empirical reasons to believe that variation in distributive conflict will spur hard and soft law instruments to interact in different ways, sometimes as alternatives, sometimes as complements and sometimes as antagonists. In this section, therefore, we lay out our theoretical argument about the reasons why, and the conditions under which, we expect hard and soft law to interact as antagonists. The analysis is in four parts. First, we argue that students of both hard and soft law have undertheorized the importance and the sources of state (or, in the case of the European Union, regional) power, and we examine the most powerful players in issue-areas such as international economic regulation (section A). Next, we argue that international cooperation is frequently characterized by intense distributional conflict, in which various players may have sharply differing preferences over cooperative outcomes, such as international regulations and standards, with each side attempting to export its own regulatory preferences and force the costs of adjustment onto others (section B). Third, we examine the problems of “regime complexes” and legal fragmentation, arguing that states with divergent preferences will have strong incentives to engage in forum shopping and “strategic inconsistency,” using the opportunities provided by competing legal fora to press their substantive preferences (section C). Fourth and finally, we examine the problem of implementing international agreements in domestic politics, arguing that implementation problems both undermine any clear distinction between hard and soft law, and set off recursive cycles of international law- and norm-making, with hard and soft law sometimes being used as complements and sometimes as antagonists. Parts III and IV of the Article will then build upon this analysis, making the argument that under conditions of distributive conflict and regime complexes, hard and soft law interact not only as alternatives and complements, but also as mutually undermining antagonists. A. Power in International Governance 34 The canonical stories of hard and soft law, whether positivist, rational institutionalist, or constructivist, depict the adoption of hard and soft law as issues of choice. These literatures offer rich (if not always compatible) accounts of how and why actors, and in particular states, might opt for harder or softer legal agreements, as well as of how hard and soft law may differentially affect the behavior and possibly the interests of these actors. With a few notable exceptions, however, these literatures do not foreground the issue of power, and, in particular, discuss how power differentials among actors shape the adoption and implementation of hard and soft legal instruments. Similarly, the literature on international regulatory cooperation has devoted considerable attention to understanding the adoption of both hard and soft-law regulatory agreements, but has seldom paid explicit attention to the role that power plays in determining regulatory outcomes. There is a tendency in much of the literature to view international regulation and standard-setting as a technocratic process, in which the guiding consideration is efficiency, and distributive concerns recede in importance.99 Increasingly, however, studies of international regulation have begun to acknowledge the significance of power in shaping the adoption, substantive content, and compliance with international regulatory regimes.100 Indeed, the emerging picture of international regulatory cooperation is one in which differences in power matter greatly in the adoption and implementation of international legal rules. Both Mattli and Büthe and our own previous work, for example, have emphasized potential distributive conflict among states that stand to gain differentially from various proposed standards, and have suggested that differences in power resources can determine substantive standards and distributive outcomes in those cases.101 Daniel Drezner goes further, arguing that agreement among economically powerful states – and in particular between the United States and the European Union, the dominant economic players on the world stage – is a 99 See e.g. Giandomenico Majone, Regulating Europe (London: Routledge, 1996), and Thomas Loya & John Boli, “Standardization and the World Polity: Technological Rationality over Power,” in Boli and Thomas (eds) Constructing World Culture: International Nongovernmental Organizations since 1875 (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1999). 100 See e.g. Daniel W. Drezner, All Politics is Global: Explaining International Regulatory Regimes (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2007); Braithwaite and Drahos, Global Business Regulation, supra note…; and Walter Mattli and Tim Büthe, “Setting International Standards: Technological Rationality or Primacy of Power?” World Politics, Vol. 56, No. 1 (2003), pp. 1–42. 101 See Mattli and Büthe, Setting International Standards; supra note…; and Pollack and Shaffer, “The Future of Transatlantic Economic Relations.” 35 necessary condition for any successful regulatory regime.102 To these claims we add another, namely that the interaction of hard and soft law will be shaped primarily by the preferences of powerful states such as the US and the EU, and to a lesser extent by groups of other states that attempt to thwart the aims of powerful countries through the strategic deployment of international legal instruments. Foregrounding the role of power and inequality in the choice and interaction of hard and soft law, however, is not sufficient; we must also address the various ways in which power is manifested. To start, the potential sources of state power are multiple, including military capacity, economic size, domestic institutional strengths, policy expertise, and resources conveyed by international institutions, and can be expected to vary by issue-area.103 We focus here on the role of interests, institutions and ideas.104 In the security arena, for example, military power may be expected to loom large, as well as economic power and the advantages conveyed by domestic and international institutions (such as permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council with veto power), and we shall return to the security arena at the end of Part IV of this Article. In the economic realm, by contrast, we concur with Drezner that the post powerful actors and influential actors in international regulatory policy are the United States and the European Union in large part because of their ability to exercise market power, but also for other reasons that we indicate below. These resources facilitate the ability of the US and EU to advance their interests, and the interests of constituencies within them through hard- and soft- law instruments. The US and the EU collectively represent over 50 percent of global production, and over 40 percent in terms of purchasing power parity.105 In 2006, EU gross domestic 102 Drezner, All Politics is Global, supra note. A detailed discussion of power resources is beyond the scope of this article. For good discussions, see e.g. the essays in Michael N. Barnett and Raymond Duvall, eds., Power in Global Governance (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005). For an assessment of the use of different mechanisms to make global business regulation in different policy areas, from military and economic coercion to modeling and “capacity building,” see Braithwaite and Drahos, Global Businesss Regulation, supra note.. 104 We do not assess power from Marxist or Foucauldian perspectives respectively involving false conciousiness and the shaping of identity. Cf. Barnett & Duvall, Power, supra note… 105 See World Bank, at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf, and http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GDP.pdf (EU GDP at 27.2% of world GDP in 2006, and at 20.6% in PPP terms; and US GDP at 24.6% of world GDP in 2006, and at 20% in PPP 103 36 product was slightly larger than the United States’, but not by a significant extent. Because of the size of their markets, where the US and EU agree on a common regulatory policy, they are well-positioned to promote it globally. For example, as Germain contends in the area of financial regulation, the size of the international markets handled in New York, London and a few other major cities “empower their respective state authorities” to be leaders in global regulation.106 Where they disagree, there is often deadlock, reflecting the equal size of their economies and markets. With the rise of the economies of China, India, Brazil and other developing countries, the US and EU have a long-term interest in exercising global regulatory leadership now in order to lock their preferences into international law and institutions, but the conflicts between them may inhibit their ability to do so. The US and EU have launched a series of initiatives to promote transatlantic collaboration in global governance that we have assessed in our earlier work.107 The creation of the New Transatlantic Agenda (NTA) and the Transatlantic Economic Partnership (TEP) during the 1990s were premised on the idea of joint gains from transatlantic economic integration and in particular from joint regulatory cooperation across a wide range of issue-areas. Alongside the traditional processes of trade negotiation and trade dispute resolution, the transatlantic partners forged new mechanisms for cooperation among economic regulators in areas ranging from competition policy to data privacy, the environment, and food safety.108 Among the goals of the NTA was to promote US and EU joint leadership in global economic governance. These goals were reasserted during the second term of the George W. Bush administration, in particular with the creation, in 2007, of a Transatlantic Economic Council designed to lend high-level impetus to new and continuing efforts at transatlantic terms). Their individual shares of global GDP in PPP terms, however, have declined in particular, as they collectively made up over 50% of world production in PPP terms as recently as 2000. 106 RANDALL GERMAIN, THE INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION OF CREDIT 163 (1997). Similarly, “adjustment in international monetary relations since 1972 has perhaps focused more on adjusting to the consequences of a US policy of unilateralism concerning the dollar than on adjustment based on a reciprocity of interests.” BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, supra note, at 135 (citing GERMAIN, supra, at 144). Again, as regards securities law, Braithwaite and Drahos find that “the US, through the agency of the SEC, has usually been the state that has dictated terms.” Id. at 157. 107 Pollack and Shaffer, Transatlantic Governance, 2001 108 Bermann, Herdegen and Lindstreth 2001; Pollack and Shaffer 2001. 37 economic cooperation in various issue-areas.109 Although market size generally explains the growing role of the EU as a global actor in economic and regulatory fields, US and EU bargaining power can also be affected by each side’s institutional characteristics. Where policy-making is reserved to a sub-federal level in the United States or a sub-EU level in the European Union, then the US or EU respectively will be in a weaker bargaining situation at the international level. The United States over time has more frequently been a global leader in regulatory domains because it has had greater institutional power at the federal level, combined with its great market power. However, in many regulatory areas, the US has fragmented authority over regulatory standard-setting, leaving it to US states within the federal context or to private associations. As Walter Mattli and Tim Büthe write, “When standardization becomes an increasingly international process, the organizational characteristics of the European standardization system make for a more felicitous match between the national and international institutions than the characteristics of the largely anarchic American system.”110 They conclude, “[t]he process of aggregating technical preferences and projecting consensus standards to a higher level is considerably more difficult in the decentralized and uncoordinated standards system of the U.S., where the nominal national representative for international standardization is a weak and contested institution.” 111 109 See Framework for Advancing Transatlantic Economic Integration between the United States of America and the European Union, April 30, 2007, U.S. Dept of State Press Release (establishing a Transatlantic Economic Council), available at http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/prsrl/84004.htm. The two sides created “a framework for advancing transatlantic economic integration,” prioritizing cooperation for the protection of intellectual property, the assurance of secure trade, the reconciliation and accommodation of accounting standards, the support of innovation, and the removal of barriers to investment. Id. A central objective of the new initiative is to facilitate joint US and EU global leadership in international trade and regulatory governance. See Simon Evenett & Robert Stern, Condemned to Cooperate, in SYSTEMIC IMPLICATIONS OF TRANSATLANTIC REGULATORY COOPERATION AND COMPETITION (Simon Evenett & Robert Stern eds., 2009) (forthcoming) (noting the establishment of joint EU-US approaches to commercial matters of global importance as one of the three broad objectives). 110 Walter Mattli & Tim Büthe, Setting International Standards, 56 WORLD POLITICS 1, 27 (2003). They find that “the U.S. System of standardization is fragmented, market driven, and characterized by a high degree of internal competition... [I]t operates with little government oversight and no public financial support…. American SDOs have a long tradition of keeping government at arms length, and attempts at governmental interference in the workings of the private standards system are few.” Id. at 23-24. 111 Id. at 27. 38 As greater policy-making powers have been delegated within Europe to EU institutions over time, the EU has increased its negotiating clout internationally. Because of the size of the EU’s internal market, once the EU member states harmonize regulatory policies at the EU level and develop corresponding EU-level regulatory institutions, the EU is well-positioned to exercise economic clout as a global actor. To give an example, Elliot Posner addresses how the establishment of the EU’s regulatory competence and its extraterritorial reach are key explanations for the EU’s increased authority over financial services regulation.112 Institutional developments in the EU have affected powerful US firms who, in turn, motivated the US Securities and Exchange Commission to work with EU authorities to accommodate and recognize EU standards in a number of areas. This development occurred following an extended period of benign (or malign) US neglect of European approaches to financial services regulation. As the EU assumes greater institutional power in Europe, it should also be able to exercise greater authority in international governance. In other words, the EU enhances its international authority both by widening (enhancing its market power through increasing EU membership) and by deepening (enhancing its institutional power through expanding the scope of EU authority to more policy areas). The US and EU also exercise considerable authority globally because of the regulatory expertise that they have developed domestically. They provide regulatory models, knowledge and ideas for others to immolate, adapt and internalize. In their study of thirteen areas of global business regulation, John Braithwaite and Peter Drahos conclude that “the fact that US and EU law are modeled more than others is not only because of their economic hegemony and the fact that weaker economies want to meet their terms for admission to the clubs they dominate. In the case of the US in particular, modeling is underwritten by the sheer depth of regulatory expertise Washington agencies can offer.”113 They find that the US played a leading role in twelve of the thirteen areas they studied (all but for international labour regulation) and the EU played a leading role in nine of these areas.114 Overall, they find that “the US is the biggest demander of new 112 Elliot Posner, Market Power Without a Single Market: The New Transatlantic Relations in Financial Services, in THE FUTURE OF TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMIC RELATIONS (David M. Andrews et al., eds., 2005). 113 BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, supra note, at 542. 114 Id. at 476-477 (see chart). 39 regulatory agreements as well as the strongest resister of regimes other states want.”115 However, “the EC [European Community] is more important because of the way it dominates the US in agenda-setting in a few arenas — prescription drugs, food, automobile safety — and is nearly an equal partner to the US in agenda-setting for other regimes.”116 As a result, they find that while “most global regulatory agendas are set by the US; if the EC vetoes those agendas, they go nowhere.”117 In sum, effective cooperation between the world’s powers offers the promise of mutual gains and more effective global leadership. Yet a careful cross-sectoral analysis of transatlantic economic relations demonstrates that the cooperation between economic powers varies significantly by issue area, limiting each side’s ability to exercise joint leadership in global governance.118 This variation reflects differences in power, as well as the distributive implications of the governance alternatives respectively favoured. It is to these distributive issues that we now turn. B. The Challenges of International Cooperation: Distributive Conflict Despite the general promise of regimes in fostering international cooperation to achieve joint gains, international relations scholars have identified a number of potential obstacles to successful regime-based cooperation. The realist literature, for example, has emphasized the dual challenges of (1) cheating and (2) relative gains as the primary obstacles to successful cooperation, focusing on concerns over national security and the balance of power.119 By contrast, the impediments to cooperation that we identify here are of a more general nature, and are consistent with the assumptions of non-realist 115 Id. at 478. Id. at 485. 117 Id. at 485. 118 See Pollack & Shaffer, Transatlantic Governance, supra note…, and Andrews, Pollack, Shaffer and Wallace, The Future of Transatlantic Economic Relations (2005), available at http://search.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=953958. 119 See Joseph Grieco, Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation, 42 INT’L ORG. 485 (1988); DAVID A. BALDWIN, NEOREALISM AND NEOLIBERALISM: THE CONTEMPORARY DEBATE (1993); and Andreas HASENCLAVER ET AL., THEORIES OF INTERNATIONAL REGIMES 113-35 (1997). Subsequent work by neoliberal institutionalists, however, has found that international regimes can mitigate concerns about cheating, while concerns over relative gains emerges operate only under certain restrictive conditions; see e.g. Robert Powell, The Problem of Absolute and Relative Gains in International Relations Theory, 85 AM. POLITICAL SCI. REV. 1303 (1991); Duncan Snidal, International Cooperation Among Relative Gains Maximizers, 35(4) INT’L STUD. Q. 387 (1991); BALDWIN, supra; HASENCLAVER ET AL., supra, at 125-34. 116 40 theories of international relations regarding the importance of mutual gains. We focus in this section on the problem of distributive conflict. Distributive conflicts between and within states, we note, need not only arise from economic or protectionist motives, but, more broadly, can and do reflect different configurations of interests, institutional procedures, and ideological and cultural perspectives at the domestic level, which in turn shape the preferences of states at the international level.120 International law theorists, taking from regime theory in international relations, too frequently point to the Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) game in assessing the role of international law.121 To give one leading example, Andrew Guzman in his impressive book How International Law Works, writes, “It is in the context of [the prisoner’s dilemma] game that the theory is applied throughout most of this book.”122 The distributive challenge to regime theory calls into question the appropriateness of the Prisoner’s Dilemma game as the proper model for most instances of international cooperation because it fails to capture the potential for distributive conflicts among the participants. In the classic PD model, states are assumed to have a common interest in reaching a cooperative outcome, and the primary impediment to successful cooperation is the fear that other states will cheat on their agreements. In PD models of international relations, these problems are typically addressed by creating mechanisms for the monitoring of state behavior and the sanctioning of states that violate the terms of the agreement — i.e. international law. If PD is an accurate description of the situation facing states, then international regimes and international hard and soft law should indeed facilitate cooperation by monitoring compliance and (in the case of hard law disputesettlement bodies) by providing for enforcement. However, the Prisoner’s Dilemma game ignores another important obstacle to successful cooperation, namely conflicts among states with different interests over the distribution of the costs and benefits of cooperation.123 That is to say, when states 120 For a broader discussion, see Pollack and Shaffer, When Cooperation Fails (chapter 2). See McAdams, Beyond the PD, supra note… (regarding the almost exclusive use of the PD game in legal journals generally, with the Battle of the Sexes game indicated only 2.5% as frequently as the PD game). 122 See, e.g., GUZMAN, RATIONAL CHOICE, supra note, at 25. 123 The distributive conflict to which we are referring here relates, not to the problem of relative gains in relation to the balance of state power, but to the distribution of absolute gains from cooperation among two 121 41 cooperate in international politics, they do not simply choose between “cooperation” and “defection,” the binary choices available in PD games, but rather they choose specific terms of cooperation, such as the specific level of various tariffs in a trade regime, or the precise levels of greenhouse gas emissions in an environmental regime, and so on. As James Morrow notes, “There is only one way to cooperate in prisoners’ dilemma; there are many ways to cooperate in the real world.”124 In game-theoretic terms, there may be multiple equilibria – multiple possible agreements that both sides prefer to the status quo – and states face the challenge of choosing among these many possible agreements. Different terms of cooperation can have different distributive implications, affecting states’ calculation of costs and benefits, both economically and politically. In an international trade agreement, for example, one side may prefer to drastically reduce tariffs on industrial goods, while another may place a stronger emphasis on reducing agricultural tariffs or agricultural subsidies. In this view, states face not only the challenge of monitoring and enforcing compliance with a trade agreement, as in the PD model, but also of deciding on the terms of cooperation.125 Yet PD models, with their binary choice of cooperation or defection and their emphasis on Pareto-improving outcomes, fail to capture these elements of international cooperation. We therefore offer three specific, overlapping arguments that are most relevant to international cooperation and the use of hard and soft law instruments toward that end. First, regime theory, with its emphasis on PD and collective-action models, has under-emphasized both distributive conflict and the role of state power in determining the outcome of international negotiations. This, in turn, has affected international law scholarship, which has welcomed regime theory for its validation of international law’s or more states. For a range of views on the challenge of distributive conflict in international cooperation, see Stephen D. Krasner, Global Communications and National Power: Life on the Pareto Frontier, 43 WORLD POLITICS 336 (1991); James Morrow, The Forms of International Cooperation, 48 INT’L ORG. 387 (1994); James Fearon, Bargaining, Enforcement, and International Cooperation, 52 INT’L ORG. 269 (1998); GRUBER, supra note; Koremonos et al., Rational Design, supra note; Mattli & Buthe, Setting International Standards, supra note; and DANIEL W. DREZNER, ALL POLITICS IS GLOBAL: EXPLAINING INTERNATIONAL REGULATORY REGIMES (2007). 124 Morrow, supra note, at 395. 125 See also McAdams, Beyond the PD Game, supra note…, 1t 23.As McAdams writes, “[b]ut the PD game does not capture these issues of distortion… There is no normative complexity and no controversy.” Id., at 25. 42 role. In international politics, as Stephen Krasner argues, efforts at cooperation often take the form of a Battle of the Sexes game, in which different states have clear preferences for different international standards.126 Even if all states benefit from a common standard, raising the prospect of joint gains, the distribution of those gains depends on the specific standard chosen, and the primary question is whether and how states can secure cooperation on their preferred terms. Put differently, Krasner argues, the most important question is not whether to move toward the “Pareto frontier” of mutually beneficial cooperation, but which point on the Pareto frontier will be chosen. Under such circumstances, he suggests, outcomes are determined primarily by the use of state power, which may be employed in one of three ways: (1) to determine who may play the game (regime membership); (2) to dictate the rules of the game (or our purposes, whether through hard or soft law), including the possibility of a single state moving first and imposing a de facto standard on others; and (3) to employ issue-linkages, including through the application of threats and promises in related issue-areas, to change the payoff matrix for other states and induce those states to accept one’s preferred standards.127 Krasner views such coordination regimes as stable and self-enforcing, yet this self-enforcing nature of the regime should not obscure the fact that the regime produces winners (who secure cooperation on terms closer to their preferences) and losers (forced to cooperate on terms favorable to others), and that state power plays a key role in determining the shape of the regime and the standards adopted under the regime. 126 In the Battle of the Sexes game, both states agree on the least preferable outcome or outcomes to be avoided, and both agree to coordinate their behavior to avoid such an outcome, but each one prefers a specific (equilibrium) outcome. The canonical example, from which the Battle game takes its name, is one in which two players (say, a husband and wife) agree that they want to take a vacation together, but disagree on the destination (he prefers the mountains, she the beach). In such a game, the primary challenge is not the threat of cheating (since both players prefer some joint vacation to being alone), but rather of deciding which of two possible equilibrium outcomes (the mountains or the beach) will be selected. Any agreement in Battle is likely to be self-enforcing once adopted, with little need for monitoring or enforcement mechanisms, since both players prefer either cooperative outcome to uncoordinated behavior. By contrast with the PD game, however, the Battle game is characterized by a strong distributive conflict over the terms of cooperation. Krasner, Global Communications, supra note, at 339; Arthur Stein, Coordination and Collaboration: Regimes in an Anarchic World, 36 INT’L ORG. 399 (1982). 127 Krasner, Global Communications, supra note, at 340. The use of hard and soft law instruments can also be viewed in terms of the exercise of “soft power,” as used by Joseph Nye, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (2004). 43 We should, therefore, predict the outcome of a Battle of the Sexes game to be determined in large part by powerful states, with weaker players being excluded from negotiations, or forced to accept a fait accompli, or induced to accept powerful states’ terms through threats and promises in related issue-areas. In the global regulatory context, for example, smaller countries will be placed in a difficult situation when powerful players like the US and the EU agree, as well as when they clash. When the US and EU agree, smaller countries will be under considerable pressure to adapt to US and EU standards. When the US and EU disagree, smaller countries may have a greater range of choices, on the one hand, but they may face considerable countervailing pressures on the other, caught between the US-EU conflict. Second, distributive conflict is not unique to Battle of the Sexes games, but emerges as a generic and nearly ubiquitous feature of all international cooperation. By contrast with the approach of situation-structuralists in international relations theory who distinguish among different types of game contexts,128 James Fearon has argued in a landmark article that it is misleading to attempt to characterize international cooperation over any given issue as either a Prisoners’ Dilemma or a Battle game. Rather, Fearon maintains, … understanding strategic problems of international cooperation as having a common strategic structure is more accurate and perhaps more theoretically fruitful. Empirically, there are always many possible ways to arrange an arms, trade, financial or environmental treaty, and before states can cooperate to enforce 128 In light of the problems with PD models, an increasing number of scholars turned towards a “situationstructural” approach to cooperation, in which different problems or issue-areas are characterized in terms of distinct 2 x 2 games, of which PD is only one possibility. Arthur Stein, for example, offered a distinction between what he called “collaboration” and “coordination” games. Stein’s distinction between collaboration and coordination games would later be taken up by scholars like Duncan Snidal, Kenneth Oye and Lisa Martin, who would develop a more general “situation-structural” approach to international cooperation, in which different empirical situations could be modeled using a series of 2 x 2 games such as Harmony, PD, Pure Coordination, Battle, Assurance, Chicken, and Deadlock. For good overviews of the situation-structural approach, see e.g. Duncan Snidal, Coordination Versus Prisoner’s Dilemma: Implications for International Cooperation and Regimes, 79 AM. POLITICAL SCI. REV. 923 (1985); Duncan Snidal, “The Game Theory of International Politics,” in Cooperation Under Anarchy ((Kenneth Oye ed., 1986); LISA MARTIN, COERCIVE COOPERATION (1992); and HASENCLAVER ET AL., supra note. For a critique of the approach, see Fearon, supra note, at 272-75. For a pioneering application to international law, see GOLDSMITH & POSNER, supra note, and the critiques in Andrew Guzman, The Promise of International Law, 92 VA. L. REV. 533 (2006), and Oona Hathaway & Ariel N. Lavinbunk, Rationalism and Revisionism in International Law, 119 HARV. L. REV. 1404 (2006) (Book Review). 44 an agreement they must bargain to decide which one to implement. Thus, regardless of the substantive domain, problems of international cooperation involve first a bargaining problem (akin to the various coordination games that have been studied) and next an enforcement problem (akin to a Prisoners’ Dilemma game).129 More specifically, Fearon models international cooperation as a two-stage game in which states first agree on the terms of cooperation, and then establish any monitoring and sanctioning provisions necessary for enforcement. Linking these two stages into a single game provides useful insights into the significant challenges of successful international cooperation. For example, a long “shadow of the future” can lessen problems of enforcement, by reassuring the players that the game is an iterated one and that compliance will be rewarded and noncompliance punished over the long haul. By the same token, however, a long shadow of the future can exacerbate distributional conflicts: If states know that the rules and standards they adopt will bind them and their successors for many years to come, they will have a greater incentive to bargain hard and to hold out for their preferred standard, knowing that it can shape the patterns of gains and losses well into the future.130 In this view, enforceable, hard-law agreements may increase the shadow of the future and hence make bargaining more difficult, whereas soft law instruments may make enforcement more problematic but reduce distributive conflicts in bargaining over the precise terms of cooperation. Third, the setting of international regulatory standards is particularly prone to distributive conflicts, and international standard setting can and should be theorized as a coordination game that often creates incentives for parties to engage in strategic bargaining. Some standard-setting negotiations may take the form of a “pure coordination” game, in which the various participants are entirely indifferent among the possible standards to be adopted. Indeed, the constructivist or “world society” literature depicts international standard setting as an essentially technocratic and deliberative process in which calculations of interest and power recede into the background.131 129 Fearon, supra note, at 270. Id. at 270-271. 131 Loya & Boli, supra note. 130 45 However, as Walter Mattli and Tim Büthe have argued convincingly, almost any potential international standard is likely to have varying distributive implications for states and firms, and so we can expect actors to attempt to “export” their domestic standards to the international level, minimizing their adaptation costs, while their trading partners and competitors are forced to adapt and adjust to a new and different standard.132 Negotiating environmental, health and safety standards where they have significant trade implications, for example, can be particularly difficult because of the distributional stakes.133 C. The Challenge of Fragmented Regime Conflicts Thus far, we have argued that international cooperation and international lawmaking, both hard and soft, are likely to be characterized by distributive conflict, the outcome of which is likely to be decided in large part by powerful states. This distributive conflict, we now argue, may take a distinctive form in issue-areas that are characterized by a proliferation of hard- and soft-law rules and regimes. Early formulations of regime theory largely ignored the problem of multiple, overlapping regimes: indeed, the classic definition of regimes, offered by Krasner, identifies regimes as “principals, norms, rules and decision-making procedures around which actor expectations converge in a given issue-area.”134 Yet an increasing number of real-world problems do not fall neatly within the jurisdiction of a single regime, but rather lie at the intersection of multiple regimes. These overlapping regimes result in a regime complex, which Kal Raustiala and David Victor have defined as: “an array of partially overlapping and nonhierarchical institutions governing a particular issue-area.” As they state, 132 Mattli & Büthe, Setting International Standards, supra note, at 10-11. Thomas Bernauer and Thomas Sattler point to two factors in particular: (1) the potential all-or-nothing character of the trade barrier in question which cannot be reduced as part of a compromise (as can a tariff or subsidy); and (2) the fact that the environmental, health or safety regulation may reflect broader public support so that a narrow interest group cannot be easily bought off through some sort of side payment. Thomas Bernauer & Thomas Sattler, Dispute-Escalation in the WTO: Are Conflicts over Environment, Health and Safety Regulation Riskier? 8-9 (Center for Comparative and International Studies Working Paper No. 21, 2006). 134 Stephen D. Krasner, Structural Causes and Regime Consequences: Regimes as Intervening Variables, in INTERNATIONAL REGIMES 1, 1 (Stephen D. Krasner ed., 1983) (emphasis added). 133 46 Regime complexes are marked by the existence of several legal agreements that are created and maintained in distinct fora with participation of different sets of actors. The rules in these elemental regimes functionally overlap, yet there is no agreed upon hierarchy for resolving conflicts between rules. Disaggregated decision making in the international legal system means that agreements reached in one forum do not automatically extend to, or clearly trump, agreements developed in other forums.135 Decision-making in these regime complexes is characterized by several distinctive features, of which we emphasize three in terms of their implications for hard and soft law interaction. First, negotiations in a given regime will not begin with a blank slate but will typically demonstrate “path dependence,” taking into account developments in related international regimes, and, in particular, as we will see,, the WTO-trade regime. Second, individual states, responding to domestic political contexts and seeking to advance their interests, will engage in “forum shopping,” selecting particular regimes that are most likely to support their preferred outcomes. More specifically, states will select regimes based on characteristics such as their membership (e.g., bilateral, restricted or universal), voting rules (e.g. one-state-one-vote vs. weighted voting, and consensus vs. majority voting), institutional characteristics (e.g., presence or absence of dispute-settlement procedures), substantive focus (e.g. trade finance, environment or food safety), and predominant functional representation (e.g. by trade, finance, environment or agricultural 135 Kal Raustiala & David G. Victor, The Regime Complex for Plant Genetic Resources, 58 INT’L ORG. 277, 279 (2004). Raustiala and Victor’s empirical analysis focuses on the issue of plant genetic resources, which they argue exists at the intersection of intellectual property, environmental protection, agriculture and trade. For important related work, see Lawrence Helfer, Regime Shifting: The TRIPS Agreement and New Dynamics of Intellectual Property Lawmaking, 29 YALE J. INT’L L. 1 (2004); and Karen J. Alter & Sophie Meunier, Nested and Overlapping Regimes in the Transatlantic Banana Trade Dispute, 13 J. EUR. PUB. POL’Y 362 (2006). 47 ministries), each of which might be expected to influence substantive outcomes in more or less predictable ways.136 Third, the dense array of institutions in a given regime complex will create legal inconsistencies among them. States will respond to these inconsistencies with efforts either to demarcate clear boundaries among various regimes, or to assert the primacy or hierarchy of one regime over the others, in reflection of a state’s substantive preferences. States will engage in “strategic inconsistency,” attempting through one regime to create conflict or inconsistency in another in the hopes of shifting the understanding or actual adaptation of the rules in that other regime in a particular direction. Powerful states are likely to be particularly adept at such forum shopping.137 The political science analysis of overlapping regimes is complemented by a growing legal literature about the “pluralism” and “fragmentation” of international law.138 In 2000, for example, the International Law Commission (ILC) included the topic “Risks ensuing from the fragmentation of international law” into its work program, and in 2002 it created a Study Group to make recommendations concerning the topic, renamed “Fragmentation of international law: difficulties arising from the diversification and expansion of international law.”139 For many international lawyers, the result of such fragmentation is legal uncertainty and potential conflict between international legal regimes.140 As the 2006 ILC report states: 136 For an excellent discussion of forum-shopping in international relations, see Joseph Jupille & Duncan Snidal, The Choice of International Institutions: Cooperation, Alternatives and Strategies (2006) (unpublished paper, available at http://sobek.colorado.edu/~jupille/research/20060707-Jupille-Snidal.pdf). 137 Eyal Benvenisti & George W. Downs, The Empire’s New Clothes: Political Economy and the Fragmentation of International Law, 60 STAN. L. REV. 595 (2007); DREZNER, supra note. 138 See, e.g., International Law Commission (Koskenniemi) 2006; and Paul Berman, Global Legal Pluralism, 80 S. CAL. L. REV. 1155 (2007). 139 International Law Commission 2006. 140 See, e.g., M. DELMAS-MARTY, TROIS DÉFIS POUR UN DROIT MONDIAL 104 (1998); Pierre-Marie Dupuy, The Danger of Fragmentation or Unification of the International Legal System and the International Court of Justice, 31 N.Y.U. J. INT’L L. & POLITICS 791 (1999); Matt Koskenniemi & Päivi Leinmo, Fragmentation of International Law. Postmodern Anxieties?, 15 LEIDEN J. INT’L L. 553 (2002); and Simon Roberts, After Government: On Representing Law without the State, 68 MODERN L. REV. 1 (2004). On the WTO and public international law, see Gabrielle Marceau, Conflicts of Norms and Conflicts of Jurisdictions: The Relationship between the WTO Agreement and MEAs and Other Treaties, 35 J. WORLD TRADE 1081 (2001); and Joost Pauwelyn, The Role of Public International Law in the WTO: How Far Can We Go?, 95 AM. J. INT’L L. 535 (2003). 48 [W]hat once appeared to be governed by “general international law” has become the field of operation for such specialist systems as “trade law,” “human rights law,” “environmental law,” “law of the sea,” “European law”… each possessing their own principles and institutions. The problem, as lawyers have seen it, is that such specialized law-making and institution-building tends to take place with relative ignorance of legislative and institutional activities in the adjoining fields and of the general principles and practices of international law. The result is conflicts between rules or rule-systems, deviating institutional practices and, possibly, the loss of an overall perspective on the law.141 Scholars disagree regarding the causes of such fragmentation and whether fragmentation is positive or negative for international law, but they largely concur on its development.142 Many legal scholars view this development as a manifestation of the rise of a global legal pluralism, which refers to “the presence in a social field of more than one legal order.”143 As a theory or analytic framework, legal pluralism differs from much of regime theory in that it challenges monist conceptions of the state and of state interests, and rather emphasizes the interaction between distinct normative orders — state and non-state — while deemphasizing the role of formal texts. In this sense, legal pluralism has a “radically heterogeneous” conception of law and social order, taking a post-modernist, constructivist orientation that focuses on social diversity and informality more than on formal rules and hierarchic authority.144 Although legal pluralism and theories of regime complexes have quite different starting points, in particular regarding their conceptions of the role of states, they both 141 International Law Commission (ILC) 2006: 9. Compare, on the one hand, Jonathan I. Charney, The Implications of Expanding International Dispute Settlement Systems: The 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea, 90 AM. J. INT’L L. 69 (1996) and Koskenniemi and Leinmo, supra note (both contending that a positive development), and on the other, Benvenisti & Downs, supra note, and Dupuy, supra note (contending that problematic). 143 John Griffiths, What is Legal Pluralism?, 24 J. LEGAL PLURALISM & UNOFFICIAL L. 1 (1986); and Paul Bermann, Global Legal Pluralism, 80 Southern California Review, 1155, 2007 144 See Roderick A. MacDonald, Metaphors of Multiplicity: Civil Society, Regimes and Legal Pluralism, 15 ARIZ. J. INT’L & COMP. L. 69, 76, 80 (1998); and Andreas Fisher-Lescano & Gunter Teubner, Regime Collisions: The Vain Search for Legal Unity in the Fragmentation of Global Law, 25 MICH. J. INT’L L. 999, 1004-07 (2004). For an excellent application in the area of international business law, see Levit, supra note. 142 49 raise the question of how legal regimes interact and potentially constrain one another where there is no central authority. As Roderick Macdonald writes from a legal pluralist perspective, “[d]ifferent legal regimes are in constant interaction, mutually influencing the emergence of each other’s rules, processes and institutions.”145 These regimes are not “self-contained,”146 in a way that some positivist legal commentators fear, but rather exercise normative pressure on each other, as we will demonstrate below. Lines of communication between regimes exist, but, crucially, there is no hierarchy imposing a particular discipline. We are interested in the interaction of “harder” and “softer” forms of international law within a regime complex, which calls into question much of the previous theorizing about them. This phenomenon of regime complexes, finally, is closely related to the problem of distribution, insofar as distributive conflict provides states with incentives to forumshop among different regimes within a regime complex, or to create new regimes deliberately to support their own positions and undermine those of the other side. Indeed, we shall argue below that it is precisely the effect of distributive conflicts among states, and in particular among powerful states, coupled with the coexistence of hard and soft law regimes within a regime complex, which is most likely to undermine the smooth and complementary interaction of hard and soft law depicted in so much of the literature. While distributive conflict creates incentives for actors to use hard and soft law as antagonists, the existence of fragmented regime complexes facilitates their ability to do so. D. The Challenge of Implementation Finally, before returning to our discussion of hard and soft law approaches, we note that the effectiveness of both hard and soft law regimes is crucially affected by the generic problems that any state may encounter in implementing international legal agreements. The central problem, we contend, arises from the differences in the actors and interests who negotiate international agreements, on the one hand, and those who are 145 146 Macdonald, supra note, at 77. Bruno Simma, Self-Contained Regimes, 16 NETH. Y.B. INT’L L. 111 (1985). 50 called upon to implement them, on the other hand. The challenge of implementation can provide greater leverage to less powerful actors, such as developing countries, than is frequently recognized in the international relations literature. By integrating in our analysis the relation of international law and domestic implementation, we provide a richer understanding of international hard and soft law interaction. The relationship between these two sets of actors has been theorized in international relations by Robert Putnam in his well-known “two-level games” model.147 In Putnam’s model, all international negotiations take place simultaneously at two levels: at the international level (Level 1), chief negotiators (also known as statesmen, chiefs-ofgovernment, or COGs) bargain with their foreign counterparts in an effort to reach mutually beneficial agreements; while at the domestic level (Level 2), the same chief negotiator engages in bargaining with her domestic constituencies, who must ultimately ratify the contents of any agreement struck at Level 1.148 Putnam’s article provided a critical contribution of linking the domestic and international levels in the international relations literature. What Putnam’s article did not fully address, however, is the gap between formal implementation and actual implementation, the domain of socio-legal scholars. Implementation can be viewed, in practice, as a two-stage process, that of formal domestic ratification or enactment (the primary focus of two-level game theorists, as well as positivist legal scholars) and that of actual implementation, the law-in-action, the bread and butter of socio-legal theorists. Here we turn to the key insights from the work of Terry Halliday and Bruce Carruthers who have shown how powerful actors may prevail in international negotiations and may also prevail in the domestic ratification process, but other players who may be quite weak (or unrepresented) in international negotiating fora may be much more powerful at the stage of actual implementation. As Carruthers and Halliday write, 147 Robert D. Putnam, Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games, 42 INT’L ORG. 427 (1988); DOUBLE-EDGED DIPLOMACY: INTERNATIONAL BARGAINING AND DOMESTIC POLITICS (Peter B. Evans et al. eds., 1993). 148 Id. See also Andrew Moravcsik, Integrating International and Domestic Politics: A Theoretical Introduction, in DOUBLE-EDGED DIPLOMACY 23 (Peter B. Evans et al. eds., 1993). 51 “[t]he power of the local manifests itself through the distinction between a politics of enactment and a politics of implementation. While the politics of the former favor powerful international actors, the politics of the latter favor nation-states. And since implementation in a global context is always a two-step move—from global norms to national enactments, and from national enactment to local implementation—there are two points at which national actors, however weak they seem, can open up a gap between the local and the global… We conclude that weak nations are stronger than they may appear and stronger than they may suppose.”149 Carruthers and Halliday demonstrate how a key explanation for the gap between international law- and norm-making and domestic law-making is “actor mismatch.” Those actors who wield power in domestic implementation of international agreements are often not present at the international negotiation stage. However, if their interests are not taken into account, then the resulting agreement will likely not be implemented effectively, leading to recursive cycles of international law- and norm-making in response to the failure of domestic implementation in practice. This problem of implementation – or rather of non-implementation of agreements by actors excluded from the negotiation process – afflicts not only soft law understandings but also hard law agreements including international treaties and WTO rulings. For this reason, we suggest, the purported advantages of hard law over soft law from legal positivist and rationalist perspectives– including more effective compliance and enforcement procedures – may be less evident in practice than in theory. In fact, socio-legal scholarship calls into question the very concept of “binding” hard law, once one considers implementation as part of the law-making process. As we will show in Part IV, the challenge of implementation can sometimes trigger the use of hard and soft law as complements and, at other times, as antagonists. On the one hand, states may have no choice but to use hard and soft law instruments 149 Terence C. Halliday & Bruce G. Carruthers, Law’s Global Markets: International Organizations and Bankruptcy Law After the Asian Financial Crisis 553 (forthcoming 2009) (manuscript on file). 52 recursively over time as complements to attempt to overcome resistance to effective regulatory policy implementation. On the other hand, the distinct politics of implementation can catalyze greater awareness of the implications of existing international law, triggering efforts by state and non-state actors to adopt new international hard and soft law instruments as antagonists to counter existing ones. III. Hard and Soft Law Interaction as Antagonists: A Case Study of Genetically Modified Foods and Crops Having discussed the significance of distributive conflict and regime complexes for international cooperation in general, we are now ready to return to the issue of how hard and soft law interact in the international realm. Given the traditional focus in the international relations field on states pursuing their self interests in an anarchic (or institutionally decentralized) world, it is surprising that the literature on hard and soft law has so far almost exclusively focused on how they serve as complements leading toward greater cooperation. Important exceptions on which this Article builds are the work of Raustiala and Victor concerning regime complexes,150 and the analysis of Laurence Helfer of forum-shifting strategies in international intellectual property law-making.151 This work, however, does not assess the background roles of asymmetric power, distributive conflict and the politics of implementation, nor does it systematically address the interaction of hard and soft law and the effects of hard- and soft-law-oriented regimes on each other. Building on this work, we contend that careful scrutiny of the interaction of hard and soft law instruments within a fragmented international law system demonstrates that they are not necessarily mutually supportive, but also can counteract and undermine each other under certain conditions.152 More precisely, individual states (or other actors)153 150 See Raustiala & Victor, Plant Genetic Resources, supra note, and the discussion in the first section of this paper. 151 See, e.g., Helfer, Regime Shifting, supra note; and Jupille & Snidal, supra note. 152 Some international law positivists have earlier expressed concerns that soft law instruments may undermine the pursuit of a more effective international law system, but they do not address the mutual interaction of hard and soft law. See, e.g., Weil, supra note, … and Klabbers, Undesirability, supra note …. 53 may deliberately use soft-law instruments to undermine hard-law rules to which they object, or vice-versa, creating an antagonistic relationship between these legal instruments. The scope conditions for such behavior, we argue, are determined by the two factors discussed in the previous section, namely distributive conflict and regime complexes. Where distributive conflict is low, we have argued, states (or other actors) are likely to utilize hard- and soft-law instruments selectively, adopting each type of instrument for its relative strengths, and utilizing those instruments in a complementary fashion, i.e. with soft law provisions either elaborating existing hard law or leading the way to new hard law in an evolutionary process. In situations of intense distributive conflict, however, the content of international norms and rules are fundamentally contested by states (or other actors), which therefore have an incentive to use soft law to undermine hard law provisions to which they object, and vice-versa. Put differently, distributive conflict provides an incentive for states and other actors to contest, undermine, and possibly replace legal provisions – hard and soft – to which they object. Within a single international regime, states (and other actors) are likely to enjoy limited opportunities to contest and undermine existing legal provisions, particularly if the new provisions are enacted by a stable membership under stable institutional rules. In a fragmented regime complex, however, the prospects for antagonistic interaction of hard and soft law increase dramatically. Even in the absence of sharp distributive conflict, different regimes are likely to be characterized by different memberships, decision rules, and substantive foci, creating tensions and inconsistencies among both hard and soft international norms and rules. These problems of coordination, however, will be magnified substantially when states (and other actors) engage in conflict over the content of international rules which haved significant distributive implications. In such instances, we may expect states (and other actors) to engage in the full range of forum-shopping strategies discussed in the literature on regime complexes and international law fragmentation, using hard or soft law provisions in favored regimes to counter or undermine legal developments in neighboring regimes. Put differently, if distributive 153 In this section, we often focus on states to clarify our analysis. However, as discussed earlier, non-state actors can enroll states to act on their behalf or attempt to create their own private law regimes. There also may be differences within state bureaucracies leading to overlapping hard and soft law in different functional regimes. 54 conflicts provide states (and other actors) with an incentive to use hard and soft law instruments strategically, the existence of international regime complexes increases their opportunities to do so. ------------------------------------Insert Table 2 about here ------------------------------------Our argument is summarized in Table 2, which illustrates our expectations about the interaction of hard and soft law under different combinations of distributive conflict and regime complexes. Where distributive conflict is low and regimes can be easily isolated, as in the upper left-hand cell, states (and other actors) have little incentive to undermine existing law, and hard and soft law are likely to interact and evolve in complementary ways, reflecting the views in the existing literature. In the lower lefthand cell, we imagine a world in which distributive conflict is again low, but regime complexes coexist with no hierarchical structure, as when an issue-area comprises multiple functional domains. Here, we would not expect states (and other actors) to contest or undermine existing legal provisions, but we would anticipate some coordination problems among regimes with different memberships, decision rules, substantive foci, and predominant functional representation (as by different state ministries).154 Compare these two outcomes to those in the right-hand column of Table 2, where distributive conflict is high. Where states (or other actors) engage in distributive conflict within a single, isolated regime, as in the upper-right cell, states (or other actors) will 154 One means to address these coordination challenges is to have members of the secretariats of different international organizations sit as observers to each other’s meetings. Many international organizations sit as observers to WTO Council and committee meetings and members of the WTO secretariat sit as observers at meetings organized by other international bodies. See e.g. WTO, International Intergovernmental Organizations: Requests for Observer Status in the General Council, WT/GC/W/51/Rev.10 (Apr. 7, 2006) (listing IGOs granted observer status in the General Council); and WTO, Comm. on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, International Intergovernmental Organizations: Requests for Observer Status in the Committee on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, WTO Doc. G/SPS/W/78/Rev.3 (July 3, 2007) (listing IGOs granted observer status in the Committee on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures). Similar documents exist for the other WTO councils and committees. Confirmed by Shaffer in interviews with secretariat members of the Codex, the IPPC (International Plant Protection Commission), and the WTO SPS Committee, in Rome and Geneva, April and June 2007 respectively. 55 have an incentive to undermine existing legal provisions, but their opportunities for doing so will be limited, in particular because most international organizations operate by consensus decision-making so that any state benefiting from existing law could block adoption of countervailing legal instruments.155 In fact, however, we would expect this scenario to be less frequent, for the simple reason that distributive conflict among states (or other actors) provides a strong incentive for those that are dissatisfied with a given regime to press for the creation or development of new regimes to compete with or undermine existing regimes, particularly insofar as the existing regime is resistant to change. Put differently, the choice to create new regimes is, at least in part, endogenous to the presence of distributive conflict, which would tend to push outcomes from the upper right-hand cell to the lower right-hand cell, where distributive conflicts are present and multiple regimes overlap in a single issue-area. In such cases, we argue, states (and other actors) enjoy both an incentive and an opportunity to act strategically, by forum shopping, favoring some regimes over others, and using hard- and soft-law instruments to advocate their preferred norms and rules and undermine those to which they are opposed. In such settings, we can imagine multiple combinations of overlapping and competing hard- and soft- law-oriented regimes asserting jurisdiction over a given issue. Regardless of the specific combinations of hard and soft law provisions (which we address in Part IV), our central point here is that, in the presence of distributive conflict and fragmented regime complexes, the interaction of hard- and soft- law-oriented regimes is likely to be not complementary but antagonistic, with the strengths of each regime being weakened through such interaction. In such a setting, we contend, soft law provisions are likely to be “hardened,” losing many of the purported advantages of soft law such as experimentation and flexibility as a result of their link to hard law regimes. Hard law provisions, by contrast, may be “softened,” as states, international courts and tribunals are increasingly forced to weigh the black-letter provisions of one regime against the competing normative provisions of neighboring regimes. This scenario, moreover, is more than simply a theoretical possibility: If distributive conflict over the 155 However, where there are different bodies operating within a single organization, it is possible for hard and soft law to act as antagonists. For example, UN General Assembly resolutions could be purposefully adopted to counter existing hard law, whether the hard law is created by the UN Security Council, the International Court of Justice or another public international law tribunal. 56 terms of cooperation is ubiquitous, as we have argued above, and if a given issue is subject to multiple regimes in the ever-thickening web of international norms, rules, and institutions, then we may expect hard and soft law to interact antagonistically across a broad range of issues in international politics. Assessing the politics of implementation of international hard and soft law provides us with a fuller understanding of what lies behind international hard and soft law interaction. Domestic resistance to the implementation of international hard or soft law is emblematic of the law’s distributive implications. Such domestic resistance can give rise to new international hard and soft law acting either as complements or antagonists. On the one hand, the politics of implementation can mobilize domestic actors who were previously unaware of the negotations at the international level. They can pressure their governments, and organize transnationally independently of them, to work toward new international hard or soft law-instruments as counters to existing ones. At the same time, other states (and in particular powerful ones, possibly working with non-state actors) can push for the adopton of new international hard- and soft- law instruments as complements to existing ones to further such implementation. These processes work in a dynamic and recursive manner, with national and international law and politics responding to each other. Case Study of Genetically Modified Foods and Crops. In the rest of this section, we illustrate our arguments empirically through the case of agricultural biotechnology, an area of international regulation that has been subject to both distributional conflict and a well-developed regime complex. We then move in Part IV to articulate five hypotheses regarding the interaction of hard and soft law, and examine a range of additional empirical cases in the economic and security realms as further illustrations. As we have demonstrated at length elsewhere,156 the US and EU have taken distinct approaches to the regulation of agricultural biotechnology, and have attempted to export these different approaches to the global level, seeking allies among third parties, engaging in forum shopping to find particularly hospitable regimes, and producing 156 Pollack and Shaffer, When Cooperation Fails, supra note… 57 awkward compromises within, as well as inconsistencies among, various international regimes. In the process, hard- and soft- law mechanisms have not interacted in a complementary and progressive manner, as theorized in the previous section, but rather served to constrain and undercut each other. More flexible soft law regimes like the Codex Alimentarius Commission have been hardened by concerns over the implications of their decisions in the hard law WTO regime, while the hard law WTO Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS Agreement) has been softened, being made more flexible and less predictable as the WTO judicial process has sought means to avoid deciding the substantive issues in dispute. Let us explain how this has worked in some detail. The existing WTO regime favors the US position that any import restrictions of genetically modified (GM) products must be based on a scientific risk assessment, even if the regulatory restrictions apply equally to domestically produced and imported products. From the perspective of the EU, the 1992 Convention on Biodiversity (CBD), one of a series of framework agreements adopted at the 1992 Conference on Environment and Development at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, offered a promising alternative forum for the regulation of GM products. In particular, it offered a forum within which the EU could press for an international environmental agreement supporting its precautionary approach to biotech regulation. Thanks to EU entrepreneurship, countries adopted a new Biosafety Protocol to the CBD in September 2003, which had been ratified by over 140 parties by early 2008. The United States attempted to block adoption of the Protocol but was unsuccessful. The US nonetheless actively participated in the negotiations, including over the drafting of a provision governing the relationship of the Biosafety Protocol to the WTO agreements. The US demanded a “savings clause” to preserve WTO rights because otherwise there would be an argument under international law that conflicting provisions in a treaty signed last in time prevail over those in a prior treaty (known as lex posteriori).157 The US obtained such a clause, but it failed to obtain a clear reservation of 157 Sabrina Safrin, Treaties in Collision? The Biosafety Protocol and the World Trade Organization Agreements, 96 AM. J. INT’L L. 606, 613-14 (2002). 58 its WTO rights.158 Rather, references to other “international agreements” were only made in the Protocol’s preamble, and these references are in tension with each other. The preamble provides that “this Protocol shall not be interpreted as implying a change in the rights and obligations of a Party under any existing international agreements.” The next phrase, however, states that “the above recital is not intended to subordinate this Protocol to other international agreements.” As an EU representative stated, the two clauses effectively “cancel each other out,” leaving the legal relationship between the two regimes unclear and allowing both sides to claim a partial victory.159 The EU, therefore, could point to the Biosafety Protocol as evidence of an international consensus involving over 140 parties. It could (and did) modify its existing legislation to comply with its international commitments under the Biosafety Protocol, pointing to these international obligations in its defense against the United States’ WTO challenge to the EU’s biotech regime in 2003. From a legal positivist perspective, the Biosafety Protocol is a form of “hard” law as its rules are binding on the parties to it, but it is “softer” than the WTO regime along a hard-soft law continuum, since third-party dispute settlement is not central to its operation. Overall, the EU has found a more favorable forum in the Biosafety Protocol to fashion international rules and norms that contain its “fingerprints,” coinciding with and supporting its regulatory approach to agricultural biotechnology. In particular, the Protocol has created new rules providing for the application of the precautionary principle in national decision-making, and the requirement of labeling of Living Modified Organisms (LMOs) in conformity with an importing country’s requirements. In addition, discussion continues regarding risk assessment and risk management principles, including the taking into account of “socio-economic considerations” in regulatory approvals,160 as well as liability rules. In this way, the Protocol serves as a counterweight 158 For useful overviews of the Biosafety Protocol and its relation to the SPS Agreement, see Safrin, supra note, and Gilbert Winham, International Regime Conflict in Trade and Environment: The Biosafety Protocol and the WTO, 2 WORLD TRADE REV. 131 (2003). 159 Inside US Trade 2000. 160 Article 26 of the Protocol provides that parties “may take into account, consistent with their international obligations, socio-economic considerations arising from the impact of [GMOs] on the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity.” The FAO has prepared a preliminary draft International Code of Conduct on Plant Biotechnology that addresses “possible adverse socio-economic effects of biotechnology,” but though they have existed for years, they have yet to be adopted. See Lyle Glowka, Law and Modern Biotechnology: Selected Issues of Relevance to Food and Agriculture 36-37 59 to the WTO SPS Agreement’s narrower focus on science-based justifications for SPS measures affecting trade. Both the US and EU also attempted to export their policies to a third organization, the Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex), an intergovernmental body established in 1962 by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) to facilitate international trade in food through the adoption of international food-safety standards, which consisted of 178 members by early 2008. Traditionally the US and EU have driven Codex agendas and still do so to a large extent. Each works to find allies for its own positions. Codex traditionally represented a form of soft law, since the standards were not binding and, by definition, there was no need for a dispute settlement system to enforce them.161 The process for producing Codex standards involves committees of experts which are established to deliberate over the appropriate standards. A designated Codex committee elaborates a draft standard or guideline subject to comments by member governments and interested international organizations. Once the process is completed, standards are approved by the full Codex Alimentarius Commission which meets once every two years. Overall, Codex became a sort of gentleman’s club – or epistemic community – of food specialists, including strong representation from industry, based on the following characteristics: “(1) the position of Codex as relatively isolated from international hard law and politics, (2) the voluntary nature of Codex activities and output, (3) agreed-upon norms, which restrained members from both obstructing the process of elaborating new Codex standards and from letting trade considerations override all other considerations, and (4) lack of sanctions in situations where [standards are] not followed.”162 (FAO Legislative Study 78, 2003). In the US view, there is no reason to proceed further with them in view of the lack of consensus. Shaffer interview with USDA official, Rome, April 29, 2007. 161 Once countries adopted them, however, this “soft” law clearly could have real legal effects. 162 Frode Veggeland & Svein Ole Borgen, Negotiating International Food Standards: The World Trade Organization’s Impact on the Codex Alimentarius Commission, 18 GOVERNANCE 675, 684 (2004). 60 Those attending Codex meetings were (and the majority remain) food safety experts, often with technical scientific backgrounds from national administrations and industry.163 Although only governments can vote, the process has often been driven by industry, which seeks to reduce compliance costs resulting from multiple national regulations. The situation of the Codex, however, changed considerably with the creation of the WTO and the adoption of the SPS Agreement in 1995. Under the WTO’s SPS Agreement, implementation of a Codex standard creates a presumption of compliance with “harder” WTO law provisions, subject to binding dispute settlement. More precisely, article 3.1 of the SPS Agreement provides that WTO members shall base their food safety standards on international standards, guidelines and recommendations (specifying those of Codex), subject to certain exceptions. Article 3.2 further states that a member’s conformity with these international standards shall be presumed to comply with WTO law. These SPS provisions have significantly increased the significance of Codex standards, providing a significant impetus to harmonization activities, but also “hardening” Codex decision-making by providing US and EU negotiators with an incentive both to export and to protect their respective regulatory standards. The effect of Codex standards became clear in the US-EU trade dispute over the EU’s ban on beef produced with growth hormones. In 1995, at the first Codex session following the creation of the WTO, the United States strategically “forced a vote and the adoption of Codex standards” covering five bovine growth hormones, winning the vote by a 33-29 margin, with seven abstentions.164 It was hardly a consensus decision, but it was enough to establish a “voluntary” international Codex standard under the organization’s voting rules. Shortly afterwards, the U.S. initiated its WTO complaint against the EU, contending that the EU’s ban was not “based” on an international (Codex) standard as required by the SPS Agreement. Since then, the United States and European countries have placed increasing importance on the negotiation of new regulatory principles and standards within Codex, 163 See, e.g., Erik Millstone & Patrick van Zwanenberg, The Evolution of Food Safety Policy-making Institutions in the UK, EU and Codex Alimentarius, 36 SOC. POL. & ADMIN. 593 (2002). Put another way, in the words of an FDA official, Codex was a “backwater,” as exciting as “watching the paint dry or the grass grow.” Shaffer telephone interview Jan. 29, 2008. 164 David G. Victor, The Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement of the World Trade Organization: An Assessment After Five Years, 32 N.Y.U. J. INT’L L. & POLITICS 865, 899 (2004); and Charnovitz 1997: 1786. 61 since these principles and standards may be invoked (and already have been invoked) in the decisions of WTO panels and of the Appellate Body. As a European Commission representative before Codex concludes, “In the past, if we disagreed with Codex standards or Code of Practice, we could ignore it and take our own legislation. Now we can’t.”165 In response, states began sending more than food experts and food agency officials to Codex meetings, complementing them with “delegates from the diplomatic services and ministries of trade, industry, finance, and foreign affairs.” In an empirical study, Veggeland and Borden note an increase of such representatives to the Codex Committee on General Principles from 10 in 1992, to 32 in 2000, to 41 in 2001.166 The Codex process has encountered particularly severe difficulties in addressing issues that implicate risk management policy over transgenic varieties. Three Codex subgroups have addressed them: the Committee on General Principles (regarding the use of the precautionary principle and “other legitimate factors” besides science in risk management); the Committee on Labeling (regarding the labeling of GM foods); and the Committee on Food Import and Export Inspection and Certification Systems (regarding the issue of traceability). Here, we find arduous negotiations between the US and EU, each of which put forward distinctive and sharply opposed proposals for international standards and guidelines on issues that could have a direct bearing on the application of the SPS Agreement to national regulatory measures, and in particular in the WTO biotech case that the US initiated in 2003, resulting in deadlock in the soft law Codex regime.167 The results of these negotiations in the purportedly soft law Codex forum have not produced consensus. Like the paragraphs of the Cartagena Protocol dealing with the relation between Cartagena and WTO law, much of these Codex texts simply paper over rather than settle the differences among the parties, potentially delegating clarification of these issues, if at all, to the WTO dispute settlement system. Rather than hard law and 165 Quoted in Veggeland & Borgen, supra note…, at 683. Id. at 689. 167 For extended discussions of the GMO issue in Codex, see Pollack and Shaffer, When Cooperation Fails, supra note… (chapter 4); Sara Poli, Setting Out International Food Standards: Euro-American Conflicts within the Codex Alimentarius Commission, in RISK REGULATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: BETWEEN ENLARGEMENT AND INTERNATIONALIZATION 12, 134 (Giandomenico Majone ed., 2003); and Sara Poli, The European Community and the Adoption of International Food Standards within the Codex Alimentarius Commission, 10 EUR. J. INT’L L. 613, 619-20 (2004); Veggeland & Borgen, supra note, at 698. . 166 62 soft law working in coordination toward genuine “problem-solving,” the hard law of the WTO has constrained and to some extent “hardened” what was supposed to be a flexible, “voluntary” process for harmonized rule-making and guidance to facilitate trade in agricultural products. Strategic bargaining in defense of trade interests has often replaced technical discussions. As Victor writes, we are often more likely to see “dueling experts,” reflecting US adversarial legalism, than “independent expert panels” working collaboratively to “synthesize complex technical information.”168 As Veggeland and Borgen add, we now see a “replication of WTO coalition[s] and positioning pattern[s] in the Codex.”169 An organization in which decision-making was formerly based substantially on a “logic of arguing” or deliberation has been transformed to one more frequently based on a “logic of consequentiality” or bargaining. The United States was concerned with the spread of regulation in other countries restricting the growth and sale of GM products, which was spurred and legitimated by the Biosafety Protocol. In response, the United States finally brought a WTO complaint against EU regulatory measures in 2003, which the US hoped would have significant implications for other countries’ practices. After considerable delay, the WTO disputesettlement panel finally issued its decision in September 2006.170 The underlying conflict over the conflicting US and EU regulatory approaches, however, arguably affected the panel’s decision. The impact of the panel’s decision would be felt outside the trade regime, in both domestic law and politics and in the international regimes regulating other aspects of agricultural biotechnology. As a result, we contend, the WTO hard law dispute settlement system adopted a cautious approach in its interpretation and application of the SPS Agreement, providing less clarity as to members’ SPS commitments, arguably reducing their credibility. The linkage of the agricultural biotechnology issue to other substantive regimes, we argue, helped to “soften” the effect of WTO hard law, which lost several of the defining characteristics of hard law in practice. As a result, the SPS Agreement was effectively made less binding in practice in this case, for reasons that we now explain. 168 Victor, SPS Agreement, supra note, at 933. Veggeland & Borgen, supra note, at 698. 170 The analysis of the WTO panel decision in this section is developed in Gregory Shaffer, “A Structural Theory of WTO Dispute Settlement: Why Institutional Choice Lies at the Center of the GMO Case,” __ 41:1 NYU J. of International Law and Politics 1 (2009). 169 63 Even though the panel’s decision weighed in at over one thousand pages of text, the panel expressly avoided examining many crucial issues, most particularly the questions “whether biotech products in general are safe or not” and “whether the biotech products at issue in this dispute are ‘like’ their conventional counterparts.” The panel did find in favor of the United States, but largely on procedural and not substantive grounds, with less hard law substantive bite. As a result, the substantive outcome and application of SPS rules remain unclear. As regards measures adopted at the EU level, the panel only found that the EU had engaged in “undue delay” in its approval process. The panel found that because of this delay, the EU had never taken an actual “SPS measure.” On these grounds, the panel did not examine the EU’s actions under the SPS Agreement’s substantive provisions. It thus avoided determining whether the EU had violated its obligation to base a decision on a risk assessment, whether any assessments showed greater risks of GM varieties than for conventional plant varieties, whether the EU was consistent in its application of food safety regulations, or whether the EU could adopt regulations that are less-trade restrictive while accomplishing its safety objectives. Regarding safeguards enacted by EU member states, in contrast, the panel found that all of them were “SPS measures” that violated the EU’s substantive obligations under article 5.1 of the SPS Agreement because they were “not based on a risk assessment.” However, the panel only reached this conclusion by looking to risk assessments already conducted at the EU level, finding that the member-state bans were inconsistent with the EU’s internal risk assessment findings. Even though the WTO biotech panel found that the Biosafety Protocol’s provisions did not apply because the United States is not a party to the Protocol, panelists can implicitly take the Protocol into account. They can do so through their appreciation of the political stakes of alternative interpretations of WTO rules (from a rationalist perspective), and through the Protocol’s impact on the framing and broader social understanding of the issues (from a constructivist one). The existence of the Protocol can affect the interpretation of WTO legal provisions and the appreciation of the underlying facts of the case to which WTO law is applied. Moreover, it is simply not in the interest of the WTO as an organization to ignore the content of an international environmental agreement, especially one having over 140 parties. In the context of agricultural 64 biotechnology regulation, the CBD’s Biosafety Protocol has created normative pressure for a WTO panel not to be too demanding on the risk assessment requirement. WTO judges, both panelists and the members of the Appellate Body, have some independent agency. They are not only interpreters and appliers of WTO legal provisions. The pattern of their jurisprudence suggests that they also assume a mediating role. The WTO Appellate Body and judicial panels at times have an incentive to write opinions that are slightly ambiguous, leading to different interpretations as to how they can be implemented. In this way, they can shape their decisions, especially in hard cases, to facilitate amicable settlement, and thereby uphold the WTO legal system from normative challenge. In doing so, however, they render the WTO’s hard law text less clear, and thus less binding in practice. For example, through finding that neither the EU general nor product-specific moratoria were “SPS measures,” the panel left a WTO decision over the crucial substantive issue of whether EU-level decision-making was based on a scientific risk assessment for another day. As regards the member state safeguard measures, the panel found that they were inconsistent with the EU’s substantive WTO commitments to base SPS measures on a risk assessment, but did so by relying on risk assessments conducted by the EU itself. The panel even indicated a means for the EU to comply with SPS requirements, including for member state safeguards, in a manner that would enhance EU discretion.171 The panel decision was not unique to the GMO case. As we have discussed elsewhere, even before the panel’s GMO decision, the jurisprudence of the Appellate Body indicated a willingness to provide significant discretion to domestic regulators regarding SPS measures.172 Under the panel’s reasoning, only once the EU actually makes a decision which results in an “SPS measure” regarding a GM variety may a complainant bring a substantive claim. In such case, the complainant would have to restart the process from 171 The panel stated that, “if there are factors which affect scientists’ level of confidence in a risk assessment they have carried out, a Member may in principle take this into account.” It declared that “there may conceivably be cases where a Member which follows a precautionary approach, and which confronts a risk assessment that identifies uncertainties or constraints, would be justified” in adopting a stricter SPS measure than another member responding to the same risk assessment. The panel repeated this same analysis verbatim in assessing whether a member state safeguard could be found to meet the requirements under 5.7 for provisional measures. See Panel Report, at ¶¶ 7.3065 & 7.3244-7.3245. 172 Pollack and Shaffer, When Cooperation Fails, supra note… (chapter 4). 65 scratch. A panel would have to be formed and experts consulted. The actual delay in the panel making a decision on the substance of EU decision-making will thus be much longer than the three and half years that the case formally took (not to count subsequent procedures regarding the EU’s implementation of the ruling), if indeed a new claim is ever filed. The panel thereby effectively parried deciding on the substance of EU decision-making. The panel’s delay can be viewed in socio-legal terms. The panel was not anxious to make a substantive decision on EU procedures regarding the politically controversial issue of GMOs, resulting in a softening of the binding nature of the WTO commitments in question. In sum, the intense politicization of the issue, and the entrenchment of two sharply divergent regulatory systems governing the world’s two largest economies meant that the various multilateral negotiations on agricultural biotechnology resembled a Battle of the Sexes game, in which each side sought common international standards on its own terms. These various regimes have interacted, but the result has been some “hardening” of the soft law regimes like Codex, and to some “softening” (and more flexibility and less predictability) of the hard law WTO dispute-settlement system. The Codex has lost some of its traditional advantages as a soft law regime, growing more contentious, more difficult, and less deliberative over time because states are concerned about how its decisions can be used in the hard law WTO dispute-settlement system. By contrast, the quintessential hard law regime of the WTO dispute settlement system has been softened somewhat, as panelists and Appellate Body members need to take into account not only political pressures from the member states, but also the growing overlaps, tensions, and conflicts between the WTO legal order and the provisions – both hard and soft – of neighboring international regimes. IV. Five Hypotheses as to the Interaction of Hard and Soft Law Instruments As we have now shown, although hard and soft law mechanisms can complement each other, they do not necessarily interact in a complementary, mutually-reinforcing manner. We advance five hypotheses as to how these tools operate in international 66 governance. In each case, we refer to policy examples. We offer these arguments as conjectures subject to further testing. 1. Where powerful states agree on a common policy, we are more likely to see hard and soft law work as complements in an evolutionary manner. It is now commonplace to argue that where powerful actors such as the United States and the European Union agree on a particular policy or standard, it is much easier for them to promote it globally. Richard Steinberg, for example, writes regarding the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations that, “[f]rom the time the transatlantic powers agreed to [a common] approach in 1990, they definitively dominated the agenda-setting process, that is, the formulation and drafting of texts that would be difficult to amend.”173 Daniel Drezner goes further, arguing that, as a general rule, agreement between the US and the EU is both a necessary and sufficient condition for successful international regulation.174 We extend these arguments further, and contend that the interaction of hard and soft law as complements, presented as a general rule in much or all of the existing literature, in fact operates only under a restrictive set of conditions, namely a broad policy consensus among the most powerful actors within a given issue-area. We have seen and can cite to many examples of this process. One side may initially be the primary entrepreneur behind the international regulatory initiative, eventually bringing the other side on board. The US has often taken the lead in initiatives that have resulted in successful international regulatory cooperation, from international agreements to protect the ozone layer175 to the anti-bribery convention176 to the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations.177 In both the ozone protection and anti-bribery cases, the initial instruments were of a soft law nature, and hard law agreements were reached once EU members were convinced of the benefits of a hard law approach. Yet with the 173 Steinberg, supra note. Drezner, All Politics is Global, supra note. 175 Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer art. 11, opened for signature Mar. 22, 1985, T.I.A.S. No. 11,097, 1513 U.N.T.S. 293.. 176 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Convention on Combating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials in International Business Transactions, Dec. 17, 1997, 37 I.L.M. 1, 177 The Legal Texts: The Results of the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations (Cambridge, U.K.; New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press, 1999). Braithwaite and Drahos cite the United States’ successful use of forum-shifting in the global regulation of intellectual property and telecommunications to the WTO, respectively from WIPO and the ITU, as well as competition policy, away from UNCTAD. BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, GLOBAL BUSINESS REGULATION, supra note, at 566-568. 174 67 increased institutionalization and harmonization of European regulation at the EU level, the EU may likewise play an increasingly important entrepreneurial role in global governance, from standard-setting to climate change to financial regulation.178 Generally speaking, the success of international endeavors, from the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO), to the Basel Committee for banking regulation, to the export credit soft law arrangements, depends on the cooperation of the US and the EU or its members.179 Similarly, private organizations may take the lead in developing self-regulatory lex mercatoria regimes, but where these regimes become codified in international hard law, one important reason is that they explicitly or implicitly enroll the support of powerful states.180 Indeed, we suggest that much of the existing literature on the complementary interaction of hard and soft law exhibits selection bias by drawing disproportionately from cases in which the US and EU agree on the aims and terms of regulation because there are no, or only minimal distributive conflicts between them. 2. Where powerful states disagree on policy, we are more likely to see hard and soft law work in opposition to each other. More precisely, powerful states engaged in distributive conflicts are likely to engage in forum shopping, advancing their interests by pressing for the adoption of legal provisions, both hard and soft, in forums that are most favorable to their respective positions. These overlapping hard- and soft- law-oriented 178 Braithwaite and Drahos also cite the EU’s successful “initiative of establishing the international Conference on Harmonization as an alternative forum to WHO” for the regulation of pharmaceutical drugs. BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, GLOBAL BUSINESS REGULATION, supra note, at 566-568. Elliot Posner makes this argument regarding financial services. See Elliot Posner,… in…. (eds. Andrews, Pollack, Shaffer & Wallace, 2005). Cf. Andreas Nolke, Transatlantic Regulatory Cooperation on Accounting Standards: A Variety of Capitalism Perspective, in SYSTEMIC IMPLICATIONS OF TRANSATLANTIC REGULATORY COOPERATION AND COMPETITION (Simon Evenett & Robert Stern eds.) (forthcoming 2009) (contending that the EU has moved to an Anglo-Saxon liberal market model which has made transatlantic convergence and regulatory cooperation possible). 179 See supra notes … and accompanying text regarding these policy examples. 180 See BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS on enrollment of states, and the creation of public-private networks, supra note…, at 482, 488-494. Janet Levit provides an excellent example in her recent study of the hardening of letter of credit rules. She provides a “bottom-up lawmaking tale that features private bankers, who have coalesced for decades under the auspices of the International Chamber of Commerce’s Banking Commission to ‘codify’ letter-of credit practices in the form of the Uniform Customs and Practices (UCP).” Their private order “rules” were then incorporated into a UNCITRAL international treaty, the Convention on Independent Guarantees and Stand-by Letters of Credit, as well as the US Uniform Commercial Code (UCC), revised Article 5, resulting in “mutual reinforcement.” Levit, supra note…. at 101, 117, 135-138. 68 regimes, in turn, may come into conflict, with the result that soft-law-oriented regimes lose their technocratic and flexible characteristics, and hard-law-oriented regimes become less clear and determinate. If agreement among powerful states is a necessary condition for successful cooperation, then intense distributive conflict among them is likely to inhibit such cooperation, providing incentives for them to either forum shop among existing international institutions, or indeed to create new institutions that, as a result of their memberships, substantive content or decision rules, are more favorable to their substantive interests. This proliferation of overlapping and incompatible regimes, in turn, creates the conditions for hard and soft law to interact as antagonists. Once again, we can illustrate this process by looking at the process of international economic regulation, in which the United States and European Union emerge as the dominant powers in international standard-setting. Given the relatively equal economic power of the US and EU, where the two sides disagree on a policy position, they are relatively well-positioned to use their market power to offset each other’s efforts to export their own regulatory practices to the international level. In these struggles, they look for allies to advance their aims, whether in an existing forum or a new one. Where agreements are reached, the result will be either instruments containing general language that does not take a position either way,181 or competing international hard- and soft- law instruments. We posit that the tension among international regimes will generally apply in trade and social policy issues where the US and EU take divergent positions, and that the WTO will lie at the center of inter-regime conflicts given its broad scope of coverage and its implications because of its hard-law dispute settlement system.182 We have already 181 For example, competition law is an area where the US and EU often have convergent policies and the sides have collaborated in a soft law International Competition Network in promoting competition law globally. However, the US and EU disagree regarding the appropriate policies toward dominant firms, reflected in their different approaches to Microsoft’s policies. See William Kovacic, Competition Policy in the European Union and the United States: Convergence or Divergence? (Bates White Fifth Annual Antitrust Conference, June 2, 2008). As a result, the International Competition Network working group efforts on single firm dominance have resulted in recommendations that are at a high degree of generality because of disagreements between the US and Europe on these issues. Email from Professor Spencer Waller, Loyola University Chicago School of Law, to author (June 8, 2008) (on file with author). 182 See also Claire Kelly, Power, Linkage and Accommodation: The WTO As An International Actor And Its Influence On Other Actors And Regimes, 24 BERKELEY J. INT’L L. 79 (2006). 69 shown how the US and EU have attempted to export their policy approaches in the area of agriculture biotechnology to different international regimes.183 We provide a second example here. The US and EU have long taken different positions regarding the regulation of trade in cultural products, and in particular films and other media. This issue was particularly contentious during the Uruguay Round in which the EU pushed for an express “cultural exception,” while the US pressed for the liberalization of national policies.184 Neither side was fully successful. The 1995 WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) provides that countries are not bound to open their markets to audiovisual services unless they make express commitments.185 Although the US failed to obtain any EU commitments to open its market to audiovisual services under the GATS, the US set up a framework for future negotiations that could lead to such liberalization, and it was able to obtain commitments from some WTO members.186 The EU then turned to other, more favorable fora to advance its interests, first with a regional, soft-law instrument, and later with a more binding, global agreement – both of which were devised in large part to obscure and undermine the justiciable hard law of the WTO. In 2000, EU and other European countries negotiated a Council of Europe declaration on cultural diversity, a soft-law agreement that echoed EU domestic law in proclaiming the value of cultural diversity and justifying trade-restrictive practices 183 Although the US formally won the WTO case, it has often appeared that the EU has been winning the struggle on the ground, since most countries signed the new Biosafety Protocol and have begun to implement domestic legislation to restrict the import and production of GM products, and to create stringent labeling requirements. However, the US has actively provided technical assistance around the world to develop local constituencies for the promotion of agricultural biotech. The US has been somewhat successful as plantings have rapidly risen in the largest developing countries, and in particular in China, India, Brazil and Argentina. A number of these countries are members of the Biosafety Protocol. Efforts under the Protocol to adopt more stringent labeling requirements have run into obstacles in the last years, as agricultural ministries have realized the potential impact of these requirements on agricultural trade. In the case of voluntary soft law-making in Codex, the US-EU conflict regarding risk management policies has given rise to hard bargaining resulting either in no agreement or, where some agreement is reached, in general compromise language that papers over the US-EU differences. See Pollack and Shaffer, When Cooperation Fails, supra note… (chapters 4 & 7). 184 Cristoph Beat Graber, The New UNESCO Convention on Cultural Diversity: A Counterbalance to the WTO?, 9 J. INT’L ECON. L. 553 (2006); see also Tania Voon, UNESO and WTO. A Clash of Cultures?, 55 INT’L & COMP. L.Q. 635 (2006). 185 The GATS commits WTO members to “successive rounds of negotiations… with a view to achieving a progressively higher level of liberalization.” (Article XIX of GATS). 186 Graber, supra note, at 554. 70 in the interest of maintaing such diversity.187 This European declaration, in turn, helped to pave the way for the adoption, in 2001, of a global soft-law instrument, the Universal Declaration on Cultural Diversity adopted under the auspices of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).188 UNESCO then turned to the drafting of a binding convention, the Convention on the Protection and Promotion of the Diversity of Cultural Expressions, which 148 countries signed in October 2005.189 Only two countries opposed it, the United States and Israel. The United States “vehemently opposed” the convention throughout the negotiations, maintaining that it was protectionist and inappropriately implicated UNESCO in trade policy.190 The convention went into effect in March 2007. Although the convention is formally binding, its core provisions are defensive. As Christophe Beat Graber writes, “the principal role of the [Convention] will be to act as a counterpart to the WTO whenever conflicts between trade and culture arise.”191 Article 1(g) of the convention, for example, provides that one of its objectives is “to give recognition to the distinctive nature of cultural activities, goods and services as vehicles of identity, values and meaning” — as opposed to having value only in economic terms. Article 5 of the convention then affirms the sovereign right of the parties “to formulate and implement their cultural polices and to adopt measures to protect and promote the diversity of cultural expressions and to strengthen international cooperation to achieve [such] purposes.” Article 6 provides that each party “may adopt measures aimed at protecting and promoting the diversity of cultural expressions within its territory,” which include the provision of “financial assistance” and the adoption of “regulatory measures.” Article 8 goes further, maintaining that, “Parties may take all appropriate measures to protect and preserve cultural expressions in situations [where cultural expressions are] in need of urgent safeguarding.” 187 Council of Europe, Declaration of the Committee of Ministers on Cultural Diversity (adopted by the Committee of Ministers on 7 December 2000 at the 733rd meeting of the Ministers' Deputies) CDMM (2000) 44. 188 UNESCO, Universal Declaration on Cultural Diversity, UNESCO Doc. 31C/Res.25 (Nov. 2, 2001) 189 UNESCO Convention on the Protection and Promotion of the Diversity of Cultural Expressions, October 20, 2005, 45 I.L.M. 269 190 Graber, supra note, at 560, 565. 191 Id. 71 Much of the rest of the convention is of a soft law nature. In contrast to its recognition of parties’ rights, the convention only creates soft law obligations, such as the parties’ commitments to further public awareness of cultural diversity’s importance (article 10), to acknowledge civil society’s role (article 11), and to generally exercise their “best efforts” to implement the convention through cultural policy measures.192 The convention provides for dispute settlement, but it too is of a soft law nature, relying on negotiation, mediation and conciliation.193 The conciliation system, moreover, is non- binding, and parties may also opt out of it. The result of this series of cultural diversity agreements is that hard- and soft- law agreements once again operate as antagonists. Therefore, as in the adoption of the Cartagena Biosafety Protocol examined in Part II, a key issue in the negotiations was the relationship of the convention to other international treaties, and particularly the WTO agreements. The convention provides another example of strategic ambiguity in this respect. Article 20 of the convention states that, “without subordinating this convention to any other treaty,” the parties “shall foster mutual supportiveness” with other treaties and “take into account the relevant provisions” of the convention “when interpreting and applying … other treaties” and “when entering into other international obligations.” At the same time, the article provides that “nothing in this Convention shall be interpreted as modifying rights and obligations of the Parties under any other treaties to which they are parties.” Article 20’s focus on the fostering of “mutual supportiveness” among treaty regimes can be read as an attempt by the EU and its allies to soften WTO rules to accommodate the convention’s norms. The EU and other parties to the convention can now refer to an international agreement that expressly proclaims their sovereign rights under international law to take measures, including trade measures, to protect their cultural diversity. As the number of countries ratifying the convention grows, the convention, together with the 2001 UNESCO Universal Declaration, could be viewed as emerging customary international law which applies to all nations except those non- 192 193 Id. at 564. Article 25 of the Convention. 72 signatories who persistently object to it.194 Within the cultural law and policy regime, hard- and soft- law instruments have acted as complements to place increasing normative pressure on a neighboring regime. These agreements, which lie in stark tension with WTO provisions that benefit the US position, could have an impact on future WTO negotiations and on future WTO cases involving cultural products, even where they involve a WTO member that is not a party to it, such as the United States. The UNESCO convention can be used, in particular, to attempt to constrain WTO jurisprudence so that WTO panels interpret WTO rules in a manner that treads lightly in this area, with the result that the application of WTO agreements to cultural products will be softened. Article XX(f) of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1994, for example, creates an exception to GATT obligations where a measure is “imposed for the protection of national treasures of artistic, historic or archaeological value,” and Article XX(a) does the same for measures “to protect public morals.” These GATT exceptions had been considered to be of a limited nature, but the existence of the UNESCO convention could affect their interpretation. The result is greater uncertainty and less predictability regarding WTO trade liberalization commitments as regards “cultural” products, and thus a softening of WTO law. In sum, in this case, the potential link between the UNESCO cultural regime and the WTO trade regime, together with the stark distributive differences between the US and the EU, led to a “hardening” of bargaining over the UNESCO convention to which the United States was vehemently opposed, and could, in time, produce a “softening” of WTO legal commitments in this area. 3. Even where powerful states agree on a regulatory approach, smaller states which are adversely affected can use international hard and soft law strategies to attempt to thwart powerful states’ aims, again choosing regimes more favorable to their positions in a fragmented international law system. The result, once again, is hard and soft law acting as antagonists, which can lead to the hardening of soft-law-oriented regimes and 194 By May 1, 2008, 81 countries had become members of the convention. 73 the softening of hard-law-oriented regimes. However, powerful states have significant advantages at the international level because of their market power and resources. Powerful states are not the only actors that can engage in strategies of deliberate countering of an existing legal instrument through activities in a separate regime which results in hard- and soft- law instruments acting as antagonists. International law has distributional implications for developing countries, and intellectual property law is a prime example.195 These distributional implications create incentives for developing countries to counter existing international law with new hard- or soft- law instruments. In their article on regime complexes, Raustiala and Victor show how the US and EU leveraged market power in trade negotiations under the Uruguay Round to create new rules under the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS Agreement) which were closely modeled on US and EU law, and which favored US and EU interests. Among other matters, the TRIPS Agreement required the recognition of intellectual property rights in plant varieties. Developing countries responded by attempting to reframe intellectual property protection in light of environmental and development goals under the 1992 Convention on Biodiversity, leading to a new treaty regarding plant genetic resources in 2002. As Raustiala and Victor write, “states at times attempt to force change by explicitly crafting rules in one elemental regime that are inconsistent with those in another. For example, developing countries led the establishment of the original FAO Undertaking [of 1983] in a radical attempt to refocus the agenda toward a broad and controversial common heritage principle for all PGR [Plant Genetic Resources]. The CBD’s rules on IP rights are another example — 195 TRIPS Agreement requirements, for example, could result in higher prices for goods, restricted access to vital resources, and job losses in strong underground economies – without generating offsetting sources of revenue. Keith E. Maskus, Intellectual Property Rights and Economic Development, 32 CASE W. RES. J. INT’L L. 471 (2000); KEITH E. MASKUS, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY (2000). Implementing the protection of pharmaceutical patents pits the US pharmaceutical industry against health activists, government purchasing agencies and generic companies. Implementing the protection of intellectual property rights in plant varieties under TRIPS, for instance, pits the interests of the US and EU seed industry against the interests of smallholder farmers. Susan K. Sell, What Role for Humanitarian Intellectual Property? The Globalization of Intellectual Property Rights, 6 MINN. J. SCI. & TECH. 205 (2004). 74 the CBD purposefully included language that could be construed to make IP rights subservient to environmental protection and development objectives, including benefit-sharing, all of which appeared to contravene the content of TRIPS.”196 Developing countries’ efforts led to the 2002 Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources (PGR), which partly undercuts TRIPS rules.197 Laurence Helfer has likewise explored how developing countries can “engage in regime shifting,” adopting “the tools of soft lawmaking.”198 In doing so, they often work with non-governmental groups who serve as allies to help generate counter norms that are development-oriented.199 Helfer showed how developing countries have attempted to counter the creation of hard intellectual property rights under the TRIPS Agreement and bilateral TRIPS-plus agreements through forum-shifting tactics involving the CBD, World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) and the World Health Organization (WHO). They have attempted to do so regarding an array of issues involving biodiversity, plant genetic resources for food and agriculture, public health, and human rights. They aim to generate “new principles, norms and rules of intellectual property” within these institutions which “are more closely aligned with these countries’ interests.”200 For example, the Conference of the Parties to the CBD has created workshops, established working groups and developed guidelines to address the issues of indigenous knowledge and the sharing of benefits from the use of genetic resources.201 Concurrent efforts within the FAO gave rise to the 2002 Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources which recognizes “farmers rights,” “sovereign rights” over plant genetic resources, and equitable “sharing of the benefits arising from commercialization.”202 This treaty constitutes hard law along the dimension of obligaton (it is formally binding), but it 196 Raustiala & Victor, Plant Genetic Resources, supra note, at 301-02. Id.; International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, Nov. 4, 2002. 198 Helfer, Regime Shifting, supra note, at 17, 32. 199 Id. at 32, 53-54. 200 Id. at 6. 201 Id. at 32-34. 202 See, e.g., PGR Treaty, at Art. 9. 197 75 is much softer than the TRIPS Agreement in its dispute settlement provisions.203 Once again, as in the agricultural biotechnology and cultural diversity examples, countries have engaged in strategic ambiguity in defining the PGR Treaty’s relation to the TRIPS Agreement in light of the tension between the regimes.204 The relation of intellectual property rights to the pursuit of health policy goals provides another example of developing country attempts to counter existing international trade and intellectual property law by reframing issues through the use of new soft-law instruments adopted in different fora, in this case, health policy and human rights fora. The United States has responded vociferously in these fora, so that the processes exhibited less of the soft-law ideal type advantages of deliberation and policy learning, as opposed to strategic bargaining.205 Developing countries have nonetheless 203 Article 22 of the PGR Treaty provides for a conciliation procedure unless the parties voluntarily accepts compulsory arbitration or jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice. PGR Treaty, Art. 22. 204 As regards the relation of PGR Treaty to other international agreements, the PGR Treaty’s preamble provides that the parties “Recognize[e] that this Treaty and other international agreements relevant to this Treaty should be mutually supportive with a view to sustainable agriculture and food security; Affirm… that nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as implying in any way a change in the rights and obligations of the Contracting Parties under other international agreements; and Understand that the above recital is not intended to create a hierarchy between this Treaty and other international agreements.” 205 The United States appears to have reacted particularly vigorously before the WHO, more so than in the various human rights regimes. Klug writes, “Since then, the United States has continued to use bilateral agreements to pursue its agenda of promoting TRIPS-plus standards, as well as applying pressure on WHO staff to stop “engaging in or publishing research or statements that critique the impact of US trade policy on Public Health. 88” Heinz Klug, Law, Politics and Access to Medicines in Developing Countries, 36 POLITICS & SOC’Y 207, 236 (2008) (quoting Oxfam International, “Patents Versus Patients: Five Years After the Doha Declaration,” Oxfam Briefing Paper 95, November 14, 2006, at 19). Klug also writes: “It was in this context that the WHO began questioning the relationship between the new international trade regime and its own mandate to promote world health. In January 1998, just over a month after the adoption of the new South African law allowing parallel importation, the Executive Board of the World Health Assembly (WHA) recommended the adoption of the “Revised Drug Strategy,” calling upon member states to “ensure that public health interests are paramount in pharmaceutical and health policies,” as well as “to explore and review their options under relevant international trade agreements, to safeguard access to essential drugs.”85 In May 1998, when the WHA began discussing the recommendation at its meeting in Geneva, the proposal came under heated attack from the developed countries including the United States, EU, and Japan.” 88 Heinz Klug, Law, Politics and Access to Medicines in Developing Countries, 36 POLITICS & SOC’Y 207, 236 (2008) Helfer says “U.S. pressure did, however, result in the deletion of statements in a World Health Assembly resolution highlighting “the negative impact of new world trade agreements on . . . the issue of access to and prices of pharmaceuticals in developing countries” and urging states “to ensure that public health rather than commercial interests have primacy in pharmaceutical and health policies.”” Laurence R. Helfer, Regime Shifting: The TRIPS Agreement and New Dynamics of International Intellectual Property Lawmaking, 29 Yale J. Int'l L. 1, 43 (2004) (citations omitted). The WHO is a functional regime which has adopted important soft law public health policies which are important for the United States because of the externalities of public health policy in a world in which diseases do not respect borders. The relevant human rights at stake, in contrast, are “economic” and “cultural” rights which are more contentious and often more amorphous. The US has not ratified the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and has not been active before the United 76 been able to obtain support from many international bodies, such as various international human rights bodies and the World Health Organization, using international soft law instruments to promote the prioritization of human rights and health protection vis-a-vis pharmaceutical patent protection. Helfer points to soft-law developments within the following human rights bodies that have been antagonistic toward the TRIPS Agreement: the Commission on Human Rights, its Sub-Commission on the Promotion and Protection of Human Rights, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, the Special Rapporteurs appointed by the Commission and Sub-Commission, and the Committee on Economic Social and Cultural Rights.206 These human rights and health policy bodies became involved in the conflicts over pharmaceutical patent protection following US pressure on specific developing countries regarding their compliance with the TRIPS Agreement. For example, when US pharmaceutical companies, supported politically by the US government, challenged a new South African law allowing parallel importation of pharmaceuticals before the South African courts, including as regards to South Africa’s commitments under WTO law, “the Executive Board of the World Health Assembly (WHA) recommended the adoption of a ‘Revised Drug Strategy,’ calling upon member states to ‘ensure that public health interests are paramount in pharmaceutical and health policies,’ as well as ‘to explore and review their options under relevant international trade agreements, to safeguard access to essential drugs.”’207 The WHO Executive Board adopted the strategy in January 1999, despite intense pressure exercised by the United States.208 Although the final resolution Nations Human Rights Council, which replaced the UN Commission on Human Rights in 2006. These human rights bodies themselves are more fragmented than the world health regime under the WHO, and some of these human rights organizations are relatively more autnonomous of states, such as the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and the Special Rapporteurs. 206 Helfer, Regime Shifting, supra note, at 45-46. For example, the Sub-Commission’s program for intellectual property and human rights stresses “the primacy of human rights obligations over economic policies and agreements.” Res. 200/7, U.N. ESCOR Comm’n on Hum. Rts., 52d Sess., Provisional Agenda Item 4, at 1, U.N. Doc. E/CN.4/Sub.2/2000/L.20 (2000), at para. 3. See also John Odell & Susan Sell, Reframing the Issue: the WTO coalition on intellectual property and public health, in NEGOTIATING TRADE: DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN THE WTO AND NAFTA (John Odell ed., 2006); Amy Kapczynski, The Access to Knowledge Mobilization and the New Politics of Intellectual Property, 117 YALE L.J. 804, 804 (2008) (noting how “law is a key location for framing conflicts”). Cf. Drahos 2007. 207 Heinz Klug, Law, Politics and Access to Medicines, in Developing Countries, Politics and Society (2008), at…. (citing Fifty-Second World Health Assembly, “Revised Drug Strategy,” WHA52.19, agenda item 13, adopted at the ninth plenary meeting, A52/VR/9, May 24, 1999). 208 See Helfer, Regime Shifting, supra note --, at 43; Heinz Klug, Law, Politics and Access to Medicines in Developing Countries, 36 POLITICS & SOC’Y 207, 236 (2008). 77 was less critical of the TRIPS Agreement in its tone than the initial formulations, following US behind-the-scenes pressure, the strategy was immediately referenced by South African officials in defense of South Africa’s positions.209 Similarly, following the US initiation of a WTO complaint against Brazil in respect of provisions in Brazil’s patent law, fifty-two countries of a fifty-three member United Nations Commission on Human Rights endorsed Brazil’s AIDS policy, and backed a resolution in 2001 sponsored by Brazil that called on all states to promote access to AIDS drugs as a human right, which again the US vociferously opposed.210 This UN resolution was helpful for Brazil in favorably settling the US claim.211 The struggle over the proper framing of the interaction of social welfare protection and intellectual property protection is ongoing. In September 2007, for example, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Human Rights issued draft “Human Rights Guidelines for Pharmaceutical Companies in Relation to Access to Medicines,” using a human rights frame.212 As Heinz Klug writes, the guidelines “argue that the pharmaceutical corporations have a responsibility to promote access to medicines,” and represent “yet another effort to use normative pressure and standards to tackle the problem of access” to medicines.213 209 The final resolution requested the WHO to “monitor[ ] and analy[ze] the pharmaceutical and public health implications of relevant international agreements, including trade agreements.” Id. 210 See UN Rights Body Backs Brazil on AIDS Drugs, NEWS24.COM, Apr. 24, 2001, available at http://www.news24.com/contentDisplay/level4Article/0,1113,2-1134_1014970.00.html; Access to Medication in the Context of Pandemics such as HIV/AIDS, C.H.R. Res. 2001/33, U.N. Doc. E/CN.4/RES/2001/33 (April 20, 2001), available at . http://www.unhchr.ch/Huridocda/Huridoca.nsf/(Symbol)/E.CN.4.RES.2001.33.En?Opendocument. Dennis notes that the provision “sparked substantial controversy among Commission members . . . because it called into question the impact of” TRIPs. Michael J. Dennis, Current Development, The Fifty-Seventh Session of the UN Commission on Human Rights, 96 AM. J. INT’L L. 181, 191 (2002). 211 See Gregory Shaffer, Michelle Ratton Sanchez & Barbara Rosenberg, The Trials of Winning at the WTO: What Lies Behind Brazil’s Success, 41 CORNELL INT’L L.J. (forthcoming 2008), available at http://search.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1137905. 212 Special Rapporteur on the Right of Everyone to the Enjoyment of the Highest Attainable Standard of Physical and Mental Health, Draft Human Rights Guidelines for Pharmaceutical Companies in Relation to Access to Medicines, reprinted in the Report to the General Assembly of the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to the Highest Attainable Standard of Health (U.N. doc. A/63/263, Aug. 11, 2008) (prepared by Paul Hunt). 213 See Heinz Klug, Law, Politics and Access to Medicines, in Developing Countries, Politics and Society (2008); see also Heinz Klug, Campaigning for Life: Building a New Transnational Solidarity in the Face of HIV/AIDS and TRIPS, in LAW AND COUNTER-HEGEMONIC GLOBALIZATION: TOWARD A SUBALTERN COSMOPOLITAN LEGALITY (Boa Santos & Cesar Rodriguez eds., 2005). 78 The pressure from these various soft-law instruments has facilitated the softening of WTO legal obligations through granting greater flexibility for developing countries to implement the TRIPS Agreement. The United States first compromised with developing countries, despite US pharmaceutical company protestation, by agreeing to the 2001 Doha Declaration on the TRIPS Agreement and Public Health, in which WTO members “affirm that the Agreement can and should be interpreted and implemented in a manner supportive of WTO Members' right to protect public health and, in particular, to promote access to medicines for all.”214 The US and other WTO members then agreed to grant conditional waivers in 2003 to paragraphs (f) and (h) of Article 31 of the TRIPS Agreement (the “Waiver Decision”).215 A formal amendment to the TRIPS Agreement based on the substance of the Waiver Decision was submitted to Members in 2005, but it is still awaiting ratification.216 Beyond the formal waivers of hard law provisions of the TRIPS Agreement in 2003, soft-law counter-instruments are still being used to create normative pressure in respect of future trade and intellectual property negotiations, as well as on any WTO dispute settlement panel that might interpret the provisions of the TRIPS Agreement. The intention is for TRIPS Agreement provisions to become more “flexible,” less determinate and thus less binding in their effects. Once more, we see an attempt to use soft law tools to make an existing hard law regime less determinate, undermining its purported ideal type advantages of legal precision backed by judicial enforcement. Eyal Benvinisti and George Downs nonetheless question the efficacy of these strategies of using soft-law-oriented regimes as antagonists to neighboring regimes in a fragmented international legal order.217 They contend that powerful countries are best able to make use of fragmented international regimes through forum-shopping strategies to shape international law over time. They find that fragmented regime complexes increase the transaction costs for participants, favoring those with greater resources. They argue that “creating institutions along narrow functionalist lines … limits the 214 World Trade Organization, Ministerial Declaration of 14 November 2001 on the TRIPS Agreement and Public Health, WT/MIN(01)/DEC/2, 41 I.L.M. 755 (2002).. 215 WTO, Declaration on the TRIPS Agreement and Public Health, Doc. WT/MIN(01)/DEC/2 (Nov. 14, 2001); WTO, Implementation of Paragraph 6 of the Doha Declaration on the TRIPS Agreement and Public Health, IP/C/W/405, 30 August 2003. 216 Amendment of the TRIPS Agreement – Decision of 6 December 2005, WT/L/641. 217 Benvenisti & Downs, supra note; see also DREZNER, supra note… 79 opportunities that weaker states have to build cross-issue coalitions that could potentially increase their bargaining power and influence.”218 The counter-regimes mentioned by Helfer, for example, are soft-law regimes compared to the TRIPS Agreement, and weaker states have adopted tactics that are primarily reactive in these soft law venues. Helfer, in fact, recognizes that governments “can attempt to diffuse those pressures [from domestic constituencies and international advocacy organizations] by taking action in regimes whose institutional structures or enforcement mechanisms are weak, thereby appeasing interest groups while avoiding action in other venues where rulemaking would consequences…. have Indeed, more regime far-reaching shifting and might less desirable actually serve industrialized states’ interests by diverting attention and resources from potentially effective treaty-making efforts in WIPO or the WTO while simultaneously creating the appearance of sharing developing countries’ concerns.”219 Benvinisti and Downs note, in particular, how “serial bilateralism is being used with increasing frequency by powerful states to shape the evolution of norms in areas such as intellectual property protection and drug pricing where they have vital interests at stake and where their position on issues is far different from those of the vast majority of states.”220 These bilateral agreements constitute hard law along all three dimensions defined by Abbot and Snidal. Benvinisti and Downs find a similar process in the negotiation of investment protections through bilateral investment treaties.221 The earlier failure of developing countries to create a “new international economic order” in the 1970s, including through the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development as a 218 Benvenisti & Downs, supra note, at 595. Helfer, Regime Shifting, supra note, at 56-57. 220 Benvenisti & Downs, supra note, at 611. Similarly, in the area of international accounting rates for telecommunications, an OECD interviewee explained: “The US wanted to set the agenda by expanding bilateral agreements until its agenda is a fait accompli.” BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, supra note, at 337. 221 Benvenisti & Downs, supra note, at 611-12. See also Andrew Guzman, Why LDCs Sign Treaties That Hurt Them: Explaining the Popularity of Bilateral Investment Treaties, 38 VA. J. INT’L L. 639 (1998). 219 80 rival institution to the GATT, suggests that there are severe limits to weaker countries’ use of this option.222 Braithwaite and Drahos come to a similar conclusion, although with greater ambivalence. On the one hand, they write: “Clearly, very few actors in the context of global regulation have the capacity to run strategies of forum-shifting.... Forum-shifting is a strategy that only the powerful and well-resourced can use.”223 On the other hand, they nonetheless concede that “in some way weaker players are better off in a world where there are multiple fora capable of dealing with similar agendas.”224 Developing countries sometimes are successful, at least in using hard- and soft- law instruments as antagonists to soften existing international hard-law-oriented regimes and thus impede great power efforts to globalize their regulatory approaches. A major reason for the leverage that developing countries exercise is the distinct politics of implementation, which is often overlooked in scholars’ assessments of the making of international law. We now turn to this key issue. 4. Even where powerful states prevail in negotiations at the international level vis-à-vis third countries, they will still have difficulty ensuring that the agreement is implemented in third countries because existing international law may be ambiguous and because different interests hold power in domestic settings at the implementation stage. States seeking effective implementation of agreements thus have incentives to develop further complementary soft- and hard-law instruments to promote the implementation of existing agreements. In addition, the politics of implementation gives rise to greater publicity regarding international law’s implications. Actors aiming to frustrate implementation of existing agreements can mobilize to seek the adoption of new international hard- or soft- law instruments designed to act as antagonists to existing ones. 222 For a seminal examination of this period, see Stephen D. Krasner, Structural Conflict: The Third World Against Global Liberalism (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985). As Braithwaite and Drahos write: “The price that UNCTAD paid for this domination by developing states was a loss of legitimacy (in the eyes of developed states) and ultimately a de facto loss of norm-making power.” BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, supra note, at 566. 223 BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, supra note, at 565. 224 Id. 81 Even where multilateral or bilateral negotiations produce policy agreement at the international level, participating countries must still implement those agreements. Local actors and institutions, with different interests than those that negotiated the agreement, can, and often do, undermine its implementation. At the implementation stage, domestic actors, public and private, are best able to exploit their knowledge of, and role in, local practice to frustrate the changes negotiated at the international level.225 The result, from an ex post perspective, is a blurring of the distinction between hard and soft law, as sociolegal scholars have argued. Such “rear-guard battles” can erode the fruits of negotiation,226 undermining the effectiveness of even hard-law regimes with binding dispute settlement. At the implementation stage, that is, international law hits home, both institutionally in terms of practice and psychologically in terms of public perceptions. The politics of implementation of an international law instrument can thus catalyze new international law-making in which the resulting instruments may act either as complements or antagonists to existing ones, as we now examine. Terry Halliday and Bruce Carruthers’ superb analysis of the IMF-sponsored reforms to Indonesia’s bankruptcy regime in the wake of the Asian financial crisis offers a particularly good example of new international soft law being used as a complement in response to the politics of implementation. The need for new soft law instruments arose from an implementation stage battle waged by domestic interests who were neglected during the international negotiation and the formal domestic enactment processes. In February 1998, the World Bank, IMF, and other international financial institutions (IFIs) worked with Indonesia to develop an operational insolvency regime for the country.227 Extremely vulnerable to pressure from the IFIs on account of its financial instability, Indonesia adopted wide-ranging corporate bankruptcy reforms as a condition to receiving future IMF funds.228 Diagnosis of the problems and the prescriptions for reform were driven by the IFIs to the exclusion of local actors integral to the operation of the new regime – debtor corporations, commercial leaders, and many private banks. Once the 225 Terence C. Halliday & Bruce G. Carruthers, Law’s Global Markets: International Organizations and Bankruptcy Law After the Asian Financial Crisis 536 (forthcoming 2009). 226 Id. at 538. 227 Terence C. Halliday & Bruce G. Carruthers, The Recursivity of Law: Global Norm Making and National Lawmaking in the Globalization of Corporate Insolvency Regimes, 112 AM. J. SOCIOLOGY 1135 (2007) 228 Id. at 1156. 82 IFIs prescription were enacted at the domestic level, these parties were thus faced with a binding regime that they had no hand in designing and with which they did not agree.229 Marginalized in the dialogue with IFIs and in the formal domestic lawmaking process, these parties fought a battle at the implementation stage such that “for every two steps forward in formal lawmaking, implementation took at least one step back.”230 Using the tools at their disposal – “great ingenuity, inertia, professional expertise, and raw financial power” – these actors were able to frustrate the changes envisioned by the IFIs and agreed to by the Indonesian government.231 Bankruptcy reformers thus turned to another international institution, the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL), which was viewed as more universal and thus legitimate than the IFIs.232 UNCITRAL adopted a new Legislative Guide on Insolvency Law in 2004.233 These UNCITRAL rules provided greater choice in terms of bankruptcy law reforms, which choices can be (and are being) used by national reformers as models.234 The politics of implementation can also spur attempts to develop new hard- and soft- law instruments as antagonists to existing ones. Implementation battles often raise publicity over international legal requirements. These domestic implementation struggles catalyze domestic groups to push for changes at the international law level. These groups can lobby their governments and can form transnational networks to coordinate pressure on governments and international organizations to adopt amended or new international law instruments that counter existing ones. We have already witnessed, in the US-EU dispute over the approval of genetically modified foods and crops, a vivid example of how the politics of implementation can catalyze efforts within a powerful state to press for new hard or soft law to counter existing international law. Both during the WTO panel proceeding and and following the panel decision in the WTO EC-Biotech case, the European Commission sought to bring 229 Halliday & Carruthers, Law’s Global Markets, supra note, at 545. Halliday & Carruthers, Recursivity of Law, supra note, at 1160. 231 Id. at 1161-62. 232 Id.. and bruce carruthers and terrence halliday, negotiating globalization: global scripts and intermediation in the construction of asian insolvency regimes, 31:3: Law and social inquiry 521, 537 (2006) 233 Halliday & Carruthers, Recursivity of Law, supra note…, at 1186. See U.N. COMM’N ON INT’L TRADE LAW, LEGISLATIVE GUIDE ON INSOLVENCY LAW, U.N. Sales No. E.05.V.10 (2004). 234 Halliday & Carruthers, Recursivity of Law, supra note. 230 83 the EU into compliance and reduce pressure on the Union by restarting the process for the regular approval of GM crops found to be safe by the European Food Safety Authority. In practice, however, the Commission encountered enormous public and governmental resistance, resulting in long delays before member-state committees and the Council of Ministers, and the queue of varieties awaiting approval grew. Faced with such an implementation deficit, the Commission sought to shore up the EU’s legal position by actively promoting both soft- and hard-law principles and rules, in fora such as the Codex Alimentarius Commission and the CBD, to act as antagonists to existing WTO provisions in order to weaken the constraints of WTO law.235 The politics of implementation can likewise spur developing countries and constituencies within them to seek new international hard or soft law to counter existing international law. Implementation of the TRIPS Agreement as regards intellectual property protection of pharmaceuticals and plant varieties are prime examples.236 As Braithwaite and Drahos write, “[m]ass rallies attracted as many as 500,000 people into Indian streets in 1993 after the implications of the TRIPS agreement of the GATT became clear, but during the many years that this intellectual property agreement was being negotiated, there was no involvement from the Indian consumer movement, indeed no serious involvement from any national international consumer movement. There were simply too few consumer movement antennae, already busy detecting too many other things.”237 Following implementation struggles in which the United States pressured developing countries to implement their TRIPS commitments by bringing or threatening to bring WTO claims, developing countries and activist groups coordinated pressure to give rise to new international law instruments. As we saw above, they successfully promoted a 235 See section III of this paper, above, and Pollack and Shaffer, When Cooperation Fails, supra note… (chapter 6). 236 Maskus, IPR and Economic Development, supra note, at 489-94 (noting that short-run economic and social costs of strengthening intellectual property rights in developing countries makes it difficult to organize domestic interests in favor of reform). 237 BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, supra note, at 489. 84 new FAO Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources and new declarations from the UN Human Rights Commission and World Health Organization regarding pharmaceutical patents and public health.238 In short, by viewing national implementation challenges as part of the international law-making process, we build a better understanding of how international and transnational hard- and soft- law processes operate, involving hard- and soft- law instruments interacting as complements and as antagonists. We see that the politics of implementation can result not just in a one-way internalization of international law through iterated transnational legal processes in which hard and soft law instruments act as complements. The distinct politics of implementation can catalyze new international law-making to counter existing international law, resulting in hard- and soft- law instruments acting as antagonists. 5. There is a spectrum from which states may choose in using hard and soft law instruments to counter existing international law. They will favor instruments with harder law characteristics where their interests are certain and when they can obtain sufficient support from third countries. Where their interests are less clear, or where other states are able to block the adoption of hard-law provisions, states are more likely to oppose existing international law provisions with new soft-law agreements. Ceteris paribus, more powerful states are more likely to be successful in obtaining the adoption of new legal provisions, and in particular hard-law provisions. Hard- and soft- law instruments can interact in four general ways, although with different variants if one considers that instruments vary in their hard- and soft- law characteristics along different dimensions, such as precision, obligation and delegation to third party dispute resolution. The four general ways are: 238 • new soft law instruments can be used to counter existing hard law; • new hard law instruments can be used to counter existing hard law; • new hard law instruments can be used to counter existing soft law; • new soft law instruments can be used to counter existing soft law. See supra note… and accompanying texts. 85 We first put forward hypotheses as to when states choose hard- or soft- law instruments as antagonists to existing ones. We then give examples of the four situations as an initial exploration, subject to further testing. Hard- and soft- law instruments which address a common issue may arise because of strategic behaviour or because actors develop them in one forum largely unaware of developments in another.239 When states strategically develop international hard- or softlaw instruments to counter existing ones, we hypothesize that they choose them in light of the following factors. For a state that is certain of its interests and intent on undermining an existing regime, new hard law provisions would most likely be preferable, ceteris paribus. We hypothesize that more powerful states will be best positioned to press for the development of new countervailing hard law. They alone, for example, are able to negotiate serial bilateral agreements with third countries, as we saw our third hypothetical.240 We further hypothesize that, in practice, states tend to choose instruments of a relatively softer law nature to counter existing hard law. They likely do so for several reasons. We believe that one reason is that states do not wish to counter existing hard law directly for systemic reasons, but rather prefer to soften it indirectly, such as through affecting the interpretation of the existing hard law, and thus its precision and clarity. Therefore, even when states choose a formally hard law instrument, the instrument may be soft along the dimension of delegation in order to avoid two judicial bodies pronouncing on a single issue in distinct regimes. Another explanation may be that the existing hard law is of a broad scope of coverage, such as the rules of the World Trade Organization, so that states do not wish to undermine the overall system, but merely affect the operation of some legal provisions within the existing regime. Another explanation may be that the existing hard law exercises some “stickiness” or normative pull, including through providing a focal point (as respectively predicted by historical instituionalist, constructivist and rationalist theory), so that states find it difficult to find a sufficient number of allied states to enter into a new hard-law instrument that directly counters the existing one. Finally, it may be that some (revisionist) states, dissatisfied 239 240 See supra note… and accompanying text. See supra notes… and accompanying text. 86 with existing regimes, indeed press for conflicting hard law provisions, but they are unable to secure the agreement of other (status-quo) parties on such provisions, and fall back on soft-law agreements as a second-best alternative. Non-state actors, in contrast, must rely on soft law because only the making of soft law is directly available to them. They often enroll states to advance their goals through such instruments. We turn now to examples of the four general alternatives as an initial exploration of these hypotheses: (i) New Soft Law Instruments to Counter Existing Hard Law. We have already encountered a number of cases in which states have adopted new soft law instruments to counter existing hard law agreements, with all of them involving responses to obligations under WTO law. In the GMO case, the European Union and other countries pressed, with mixed success, for new soft-law provisions under the Codex Alimentarius Commission that would support their positions on the use of the precautionary principle and “other legitimate factors” besides scientific risk assessment in the regulation of GM foods. In this way, they hoped to affect the application by panels and the Appellate Body of WTO law. The EU acted similarly in the cultural-diversity case, responding to the potential of WTO-related litigation by adopting first a regional Council of Europe declaration, followed in 2001 by a non-binding Universal Declaration on Cultural Diversity adopted under the auspices of UNESCO. Similarly, developing countries, confronted with the hard-law obligations of the TRIPS Agreement in relation to pharmaceutical patents, were able to obtain support from UN human rights bodies and the World Health Organization to reframe the issue of patent protection of medicines in human rights and health terms.241 Developing countries had some success in the negotiation of the Doha Declaration on TRIPS and Public Health and the waivers granted to paragraphs (f) and (h) of Article 31 of the TRIPS Agreement. In promoting the flexible interpretation of TRIPS provisions, these soft-law instruments can be of use in TRIPS disputes that involve other TRIPS provisions. The result is reduced precision and determinacy of some TRIPS Agreement requirements, resulting in a softening of this aspect of WTO law. 241 See supra note… and accompanying text. 87 (ii) New Hard Law Instruments to Counter Existing Hard Law. We have also encountered countries using new instruments with hard law characteristics to counter existing law that purports to be of a hard law character, with the aim of softening its precision and thus its ideal type hard law effects. We hypothesize that states are more likely to choose instruments with hard law characteristics where their interests are certain and they can obtain requisite third country support. In some cases, they will build toward new hard law through first using a soft-law instrument. For example, in the case of cultural measures, the EU and other countries first obtained the adoption of non-binding declarations in the Council of Europe and UNESCO. Only then, in 2005, did they sign a new hard-law instrument, the Convention on the Protection and Promotion of the Diversity of Cultural Expressions. Even here, they had the option of adopting provisions regarding delegated dispute settlement that would have more of a hard-law character. For example, some countries pushed for mandatory jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice to hear disputes under the UNESCO Convention.242 Had this option been agreed, there would be even greater potential conflict with WTO rules, as another judicial body could issue binding rulings in cases involving cultural measures that restrict trade. As it is, the UNESCO convention only provides for a conciliation procedure which itself is voluntary.243 Similarly, in the agricultural biotechnology case, countries created a formally binding Biosafety Protocol to attempt to counter provisions of the WTO SPS Agreement. Once again, however, they were only able to agree on relatively weak provisions for dispute settlement.244 As a result, countries enacting biosafety measures have relatively less leverage than they would were compulsory jurisdiction granted to a separate dispute settlement body such as the International Court of Justice. Without such delegation, they cannot obtain a formal legal ruling regarding their rights and obligations under the Biosafety Protocol. If they were able to do so, this would increase normative pressure on WTO panels to interpret SPS Agreement requirements to be more flexible in order to avoid conflict with a potential ruling from a separate international tribunal applying a 242 See Voon, UNESCO and WTO, supra note…, at 640-41 & n.53 (2006) (“[A]n earlier draft [of the UNESCO Convention] included the possibility of referring disputes to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for resolution”). 243 See supra note… and accompanying text. 244 add explanatory cite to the difference in the biosafety protocol dispute settlement mechanism 88 separate international agreement to the same dispute. In such a case, WTO panels would be pressed to interpret SPS Agreement provisions to be even less constraining on state behavior. These cases suggest that powerful actors (in both cases, the European Union) may be able to press successfully for new, legally binding provisions to challenge existing hard law (in both cases involving provisions of WTO law). Nevertheless, in both cases, efforts to proceed further down the hard-law continuum, and to include delegation of binding dispute settlement, or a clear declaration of the priority of the new treaty in respect of its specific subject matter, were blocked by third parties such as the United States. The new legal instrument, acting as an antagonist, was thus nonetheless softer along the dimension of delegation than the existing one. (iii) New Hard Law to Counter Existing Soft Law. Logically, it is also possible for states to adopt new instruments that have hard-law characteristics (such as being formally binding) to counter existing instruments with soft-law characteristics (such as being formally non-binding). The impact of the WTO on the development of the precautionary principle is an example of this phenomenon. For years, environmental non-governmental organizations have attempted to define and promote the recognition of the precautionary principle through soft-law instruments. The UN General Assembly’s resolution adopting the World Charter for Nature in 1982 was the first proclamation of the precautionary principle by an international body.245 The Charter’s statement was followed in 1992 by the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development whose Principle 15 provides, “Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation."246 The precautionary principle has been invoked in particular within the European Union for EU legislation. In February 2000, 245 The Charter provided, "Activities which are likely to pose a significant risk to nature shall be preceded by an exhaustive examination; their proponents shall demonstrate that expected benefits outweigh potential damage to nature, and where potential adverse effects are not fully understood, the activities should not proceed." World Charter for Nature, G.A. Res. 37/7, at ¶ 11(b), U.N. Doc. A/RES/37/7 (Oct. 28, 1982). 246 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, June 3-14, 1992, Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, Principle 15, U.N. Doc. A/Conf.151/26 (Vol. 1) (Aug. 12, 1992). 89 the European Commission issued a Communication on the precautionary principle which outlines the Commission’s approach and sets forth guidelines for its application.247 The United States and other countries have attempted to use the rise of the hard WTO legal system (created in 1995) to put brakes on the development of the precautionary principle into hard international law, and, in particular, through the potential recognition of the principle as a rule of customary international law. The existence of the WTO and its dispute settlement system have highlighted to states how the application of the precautionary principle can have significant economic consequences, and in particular for states’ foreign trade. States that are wary of the implications of the precautionary principle have consistently insisted on the preservation of WTO rights, leading to compromise language in other agreements regarding their implications for the WTO, as we have documented.248 When the precautionary principle has been raised as a defense to trade restrictions in a number of WTO cases, and in particular the EC-Meat Hormones and the EC-Agricultural Biotech cases, the US has vigorously opposed its recognition, and thus its application. In both cases, the panel refused to determine whether the precautionary principle constituted customary international law. For example, in the EC-Agricultural Biotech case, the panel followed the Appellate Body’s lead in the EC-Meat Hormones case by declining to “take a position on whether or not the precautionary principle is a recognized principle of general or customary international law.”249 The panel rather noted that there has “been no authoritative decision by an international court or tribunal” which so recognizes the precautionary principle, and that legal commentators remain divided as to whether the precautionary principle has attained such status.250 It thus “refrain[ed] from expressing a view on this issue,” other than declining to apply any such international law principle, if it exists, to the panel’s interpretation of the relevant WTO agreements, and, in particular, 247 Communication from the Commission on the Precautionary Principle, COM (2000) 1 final (Feb. 2, 2000). 248 See supra note… 249 Panel Report, EC – Measures Affecting the Approval and Marketing of Biotech Products, ¶¶ 7.86-7.89, WT/DS291/R (Sept. 29, 2006); Appellate Body Report, EC – Measures Concerning Meat and Meat Products (Hormones), ¶¶ 123-124, WT/DS48/AB/R (Jan. 16, 1998). 250 EC – Biotech Products, at ¶ 7.88. 90 to the SPS Agreement.251 Yet by responding to arguments to decline to apply the principle, and by finding that the member measures in question violated the WTO SPS Agreement, WTO panels have arguably put the brakes on the development of this principle from a soft-law norm to a binding principle of customary international law. Similarly, in the area of international investment law, there have been a number of efforts to pass soft-law guidelines regarding the payment of compensation in the event of an expropriation. For example, developing countries passed a number of resolutions in the UN General Assembly in the 1970s in their attempt to establish a New International Economic Order which recognized their sovereign right to determine the amount of compensation.252 In 1992, the World Bank issued Guidelines on the Treatment of Foreign Direct Investment that tightened protections of expropriated property but nonetheless created an exception “in case of comprehensive non-discriminatory nationalizations effected in the process of large scale social reforms under exceptional circumstances.”253 The United States, however, has signed over forty hard-law bilateral investment treaties since the early 1980 that go much further in guaranteeing protection of investors.254 The US has thus attempted to use bilateral hard-law instruments to counter the development of any soft-law exceptions to a requirement of full and effective compensation for expropriations.255 More generally, this case, like the intellectual property case studies referenced above, as well as the US response to the the Intenational Criminal Court, points to the increasing use of serial bilateralism as a tool of resource-rich, powerful countries such as the United States, seeking to undermine the application of existing multilateral treaties, 251 Id., at ¶ 7.89. Permanent Sovereignty over Natural Resources, G.A. Res. 3171 (XXVIII), ¶ 3 (Dec. 17, 1973) (“each State is entitled to determine the amount of possible compensation”); and Charter of Economic Rights and Duties of States, G.A. Res. 3281 (XXIX), ¶ 2 (Dec. 12, 1974) (“In any case where the question of compensation gives rise to a controversy, it shall be settled under the domestic law of the nationalizing State and by its tribunals, unless it is freely and mutually agreed by all States concerned that other peaceful mans be sought.”). 253 World Bank, Guidelines on the Treatment of Foreign Direct Investment, at IV(10) (Sept. 21, 1992) 254 Christopher R. Drahozal, New Experiences of International Arbitration in the United States, 54 Am. J. Comp. L. 233, 235 & n.11 (2006) (citing Bureau of Econ. & Bus. Affairs, U.S. Dep't of State, U.S. Bilateral Investment Treaty Program Fact Sheet (Mar. 16, 2005)). 255 See, e.g., Guzman, Why LDCs Sign Treaties, supra note. 252 91 whether of a soft- or hard- law nature.256 For a powerful state with the diplomatic resources and leverage to negotiate such agreements, serial bilateralism has the advantage of undermining existing legal principles through the use of new hard law, while avoiding the potential veto of adversaries in multilateral fora. (iv) New Soft Law to Counter Existing Soft Law. Given the proliferation of softlaw instruments, it should be to no surprise that soft law instruments can also be used as counters to each other in light of international law’s distributive implications. Many nonstate actors, such as business trade associations, other non-governmental organizations and international organizations, have created rival soft- law instruments to advance their aims. Only soft-law instruments are directly available to these actors, which is why we see the proliferation of rival soft law in a time of economic and cultural globalization. These non-state actors often enroll states to adopt new soft law, as well as create their own soft-law instruments. We first give an example of rival standards promoted by different international organizations to govern corporate respect of labor rights, then turn to private parties enrolling states in standard-setting, and then turn to examples of purely private standard-setting. Both UN organizations and the OECD have developed standards for transnational corporation’s treatment of labor.257 In doing so, they have responded to different constituencies. Those favoring more stringent regulation of transnational corporations have gone to UN human rights bodies, such as the UN Commission on Human Rights’ Sub-Commission on the Promotion and Protection of Human Rights. In 2003, the SubCommission adopted “Norms on the responsibilities of transnational corporations and other business enterprises with regard to human rights.”258 The norms use mandatory language, providing, for example, that “Transnational corporations and other business 256 See generally Benvenisti & Downs, supra note, at 611. On the US negotiation of over 100 bilateral treaties exempting US forces from liability under the International Criminal Court, see e.g. Sean D. Murphy, Principles of International Law 429-30 (2006). 257 We do not treat the International Labor Organization here, which has enacted numerous international agreements which constitute hard law along the dimension of obligation, although many of these agreements are signed by only a few parties and, in any case, the agreements do not include a binding dispute settlement mechanism. 258 Sub-Commission on the Promotion and Protection of Human Rights, Norms on the Responsibilities of Transnational Corporations and Other Business Enterprises with Regard to Human Rights, UN Doc. E/CN.4/Sub.2/2003/12/Rev.2 (2003) 92 enterprises shall ensure freedom of association and effective recognition of the right to collective bargaining.”259 In contrast, the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises adopted in 2000 use language that is explicitly “voluntary.” Moreover, the Guidelines show deference to national law by stating that the Guidelines are to be applied “within the framework of applicable law, regulations and prevailing labour relations and employment practices” in the foreign country in question.260 Multinational companies exercised greater leverage in the drafting of the OECD Guidelines both because only developed countries are members of the OECD and because multinational companies formally are represented through the Business and Industry Advisory Committee to the OECD (BIAC). Private parties have also enrolled states to promote the internationalization of competing standards.261 In the field of telecommunications, for instance, standard-setting bodies have developed and promoted the internationalization of competing and often incompatible national and regional standards. In one “standards battle,” incompatible national standards for color television led to the adoption of three different standards at the international level.262 In another, the US, EU and Japan advanced competing standards for high-definition television (ATV by the US, HD-MAC by the EU, and HiVision by Japan).263 Business groups and non-profit non-governmental groups have also promoted competing standards through purely private organizations. For example, the accounting field has seen its prominent private bodies, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and the American Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), back rival standards governing global accounting and financial reporting practices.264 Similarly, 259 Id. at para. 9. OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises, DAFFE/IME/WPG(2000)15/FINAL, at § 4 (Oct. 31, 2001), 261 See Mattli & Buthe, Setting International Standards, supra note, at 22-40 (describing the differences between American and European systems of standardization and the interaction of their competing systems at the international level). 262 BRAITHWAITE & DRAHOS, GLOBAL BUSINESS REGULATION, supra note…,at 333. 263 Id. at 334. 264 See, e.g., David Tweedie & Thomas R. Seidenstein, Setting a Global Standard: The Case for Accounting Convergence, 25 NW. J. INT'L L. & BUS. 589, 601 (2005) (documenting the differences in accounting standards and the "serious challenges" faced by the FASB and IASB if they are to be eliminated); André Sapir, Europe and the Global Economy, in FRAGMENTED POWER: EUROPE AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 13 (André Sapir ed., 2007) (“The [International Financial Reporting Standards] are a 260 93 business and non-governmental organizations have promoted rival labor rights and environmental labeling programs. For example, the code of conduct of the Fair Labor Association (formerly named the Apparel Industry Partnership) contains more lenient rules than that of the Worker Rights Consortium (which was promoted by student activists before university administrators).265 As Errol Meidinger writes regarding global environmental governance, “[a] common scenario is that the establishment of an NGOsponsored program is countered by the establishment of an industry-sponsored program (or several).”266 In sum, private actors, working independently and through state representatives and international organizations, promote rival soft-law instruments to shape international law and domestic practice over time *** Faced with existing and unfavorable legal provisions, whether of a hard- or softlaw nature, states and other actors have the option of pursuing new hard- or soft-law provisions to counter or undermine them. We have shown that new and existing hardand soft- law instruments provide a full range of possible combinations, reflecting both the nature of the status quo ante, the certainty of actor preferences, the constellation of preferences and the power of states seeking the adoption of new hard- or soft-law provisions. We have hypothesized that states are most likely to opt for hard-law provisions where their interests are most clear, where they are able to obtain the support rival to the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) used by the US and other systems of national standards in major countries, such as India and Japan, where the IFRS are currently not permitted.”); Lawrence A. Cunningham, A Prescription to Retire the Rhetoric of "Principles-Based Systems" in Corporate Law, Securities Regulation, and Accounting, 60 VAND. L. REV. 1411, 1454-60, 1486-88 (2007) (discussing rivalry between FASB and IFRS promulgators). 265 See Fair Labor Association, The FLA Workplace Code of Conduct (2005), http://www.fairlabor.org/about_us_code_conduct_e1.html (containing more lenient rules); Worker Rights Consortium, Model Code of Conduct (2007), http://www.msjc.net/Sweatshop/wrc_coc%5B1%5D.pdf ; as well as the code of conduct of the Worldwide Responsible Apparel Production (WRAP), an industry initiative. See also Lance Compa, Assessing Assessments: A Survey of Efforts to Measure Countries’ Compliance with Freedom of Association Standards, 24 COMP. LAB. L. & POL’Y J. 283, 301-03 (2003) (addressing the multiple public and private fora engaged in this area); and Tim Bartley, Certifying Forests and Factories: States, Social Movements, and the Rise of Private Regulation in the Apparel and Forest Products Fields, 31 POLITICS & SOC’Y 433 (2003). 266 Errol Meidinger, Competitive Supragovernmental Regulation: How Could it Be Democratic?, 8 CHI. J. INT’L L. 513 (2008). Meidinger notes the possibilities for “democratic experimentalism” and “norm development,” as well as “a form of managed tokenism designed to cloak status quo practices,” and calls for more empirical work. Id. at 533-534. 94 of a critical mass of other states, and where they independently have the leverage to engage in a policy of serial bilateralism. We have also put forward reasons why states more frequently turn to countervailing soft-law instruments, including because of systemic concerns, the stickiness and normative pull of existing regimes, and their inability to secure agreement from status quo parties so that they fall back on soft law as a second best alternative. Non-state actors tend to rely more on soft law because only the making of soft law is directly available to them, but they often enroll states to advance their goals. What these cases all have in common is the systematic deployment of hard and soft law as antagonists rather than simply as alternatives or complements. As we showed earlier, this interaction can weaken the purported ideal type advantages of hardand soft- law regimes. 6. We maintain that our five hypotheses are generally applicable to areas outside of international regulation on which we have largely focused. In this final section, we give examples from two domains of public international law — the international law of the use of force for “humanitarian intervention” and the international law regarding the use and possession of nuclear weapons. Most of our examples in this Article regarding the interaction of hard and soft law instruments come from the field of international regulation, which reflects the rapid growth of this area of international law in a globalizing world. For international relations scholars, economic regulation tends to raise issues of “lower” politics and thus enhanced prospects for international cooperation, so that our claims are particularly pertinent in this area.267 However, we believe that our analytic approach also applies to areas of international law generally. [THIS SECTION TO BE DEVELOPED] V. Conclusions 267 On the classic distinction between high and low politics, see Stanley Hoffmann, “Obstinate or Obsolete? The Fate of the Nation State and the Case of Western Europe,” Daedalus 95, 1966. pp. 892 – 908. 95 Taken together, our hypotheses suggest that hard and soft law may interact in a complementary and mutually-reinforcing evolutionary fashion, as predicted in the canonical literature, but only under certain conditions. Specifically, where powerful actors agree on the aims and terms of international cooperation, soft and hard law are most likely to complement each other in the ways discussed by Abbott and Snidal, Shelton, and others, so as to promote greater cooperation. However, in the absence of such an agreement, or in the presence of distributive conflict among states and other actors, we can predict, and indeed we have seen in many concrete instances, that states and other actors will strategically use different hard- and soft- law instruments to advance their respective aims in the international arena. In these cases, hard- and soft- laworiented regimes may be placed in active opposition to each other, with soft-law-oriented regimes taking on the “hard bargaining” characteristics of hard-law-oriented regimes, while the terms of hard-law-oriented regimes may become increasingly flexible, uncertain and “soft,” insofar as policymakers and adjudicators tread softly in deciding cases with implications in neighboring regimes. None of our analysis is to suggest that either hard or soft law is inherently flawed or not worth pursuing. Where the scope conditions are right, hard and soft law can interact in a mutually-reinforcing manner, as discussed above. Furthermore, even where particular issues are characterized by distributive conflicts and fragmented international regimes, both hard and soft law regimes can play a positive role in encouraging cooperation, provided that our expectations of these regimes remain realistic. Even in these situations, while hard- and soft- law-oriented regimes can be expected to lose some of their traditional advantages — such as flexibility and deliberative, technocratic decision-making in soft law regimes and legal certainty in hard law regimes — they nevertheless offer useful fora in which states may negotiate over the adoption of international standards and attempt to address their implications. More generally, multilateral regimes, while subject to distributive conflicts and to forum-shopping and inconsistency across regimes, can still provide their traditional functions of lowering the transaction costs of negotiations, providing a common vocabulary for the parties, clarifying at least some of the mutual understandings and obligations of the parties, and contributing to regulatory capacity building in less-developed countries. 96 In addition, we suggest, tensions and even conflicts among hard and soft international law regimes should not necessarily be lamented. The tensions we observe simply reflect underlying differences among states and state constituencies, and in particular among powerful ones, in a diverse, pluralist world. In such a context, overlapping, fragmented legal regimes can also provide a service to each other, signaling states and international decision-makers to tread softly in applying their particular rules, taking account of developments in other spheres of international law and politics.268 For example, they can prompt internal responses within the WTO regime to preserve its own political legitimacy. In the context of agricultural biotechnology regulation, the CBD’s Biosafety Protocol has provided a counter-voice which can protect the WTO system from the WTO dispute settlement system’s relative insularity from global politics. These agreements, we contend, will interact, and over time, they can operate recursively. In doing so, they can help stabilize conflict, such as by reducing the likelihood of trade wars. They can also facilitate states’ mutual accommodation of regulatory difference at least to a greater extent than in the absence of such institutions. Although our aim in this Article has been strictly positivist, our findings have normative implications. As Karl Llewelyn wrote from a legal realist vantage, A[t]he argument is simply that no judgment of what Ought to be done in the future with respect to any part of law can be intelligently made without knowing objectively, as far as possible, what that part of law is now doing.@269 By providing a richer understanding of how and why international hard- and soft- law instruments are developed and interact, this Article’s findings are relevant for any actor wishing to engage with processes of international law-making. Even though we foreground the roles of power, inequality and distributive conflict, we also provide an explanation of the leverage that developing countries and constituencies within them retain because of the distinct politics of implementation. Moreover, our analysis both recognizes the critical role states continue 268 For a related concept of “dialectical review” involving the interaction of international and national courts, see Robert Ahdieh, Between Dialogue and Decree: International Review of National Courts, 79 N.Y.U. L. REV. 2029 (2004). 269 Llewellyn called for Athe temporary divorce of Is and Ought for purposes of study.@ See Karl Llewellyn, Some Realism about RealismBResponding to Dean Pound, 44 HARV. L. REV. 1222, 1236-37 (1931). 97 to play in the international law system, while also disaggregregating the state, especially in terms of the politics of implementation, in order to provide a more complex and richer understanding of the various roles hard and soft law play as alternatives, complements and antagonists in international governance. Ultimately, we contend, the relationship between international hard law and soft law instruments cannot be characterized in a universal or invariant fashion. Rather, we have argued, the interaction of hard and soft law depends on the respective power of the key players, the degree of distributive conflict among them, the constellation and character of regimes within a given regime complex, and the distinct politics of implementation. The canonical, complementary and evolutionary relationship between hard and soft law is not a myth, we maintain, but that relationship holds only under a set of scope conditions, including broad agreement between powerful states on the aims and terms of international law. Where these conditions fail to hold, the interaction between hard and soft law can be far more adversarial than the canonical literature suggests. Understanding the varied interactions of hard and soft law in a wider set of cases, we believe, represents the next major challenge in this field of study. View publication stats