Daily Morning G7+ Update

Global Markets Group
Economic Research
Daily Morning G7+ Update
21 April 2015
Author: Myrdal Gunarto
Mata Uang G7+
AUDUSD: Sell on Rally. Bias bearish dalam jangka pendek, support terdekat terlihat pada kisaran 0,7674. Break di bawah
area tersebut dapat memicu momentum bearish lebih lanjut menuju area 0,7622. Sementara, resisten terdekat terlihat di area
0,7810. Jika break area tersebut maka harga akan naik menuju area 0,7894.
EURUSD: Sell on Rally. Bias bearish dengan support terlihat di level 1,0692 dan kemudian memicu tekanan bearish
mengincar area 1,0645. Resisten terdekat tampak di area 1,0805. Jika harga terus naik konsisten di atas area tersebut, maka
harga kemungkinan akan menuju area resisten berikutnya di level 1,0871.
GBPUSD: Sell on Rally. Secara teknikal, pergerakan GBPUSD yaitu bias bearish di jangka pendek, namun masih dibutuhkan
penembusan konsisten di bawah area 1,4896 untuk menguji support berikutnya di area 1,4830. Sementara, resisten terdekat
tampak di area 1,4965. Jika GBPUSD terapresiasi secara konsisten di atas area tersebut, maka di jangka pendek
kemungkinan menguji area 1,5022.
USDJPY: Buy on Dip. Bias bullish dengan indikasi rebound terlihat. Resisten terdekat berada di area 119,57 dan 119,96.
Sementara, jika USDJPY konsisten terus menurun, maka instruksi dapat berbalik menjadi bias bearish dengan level support di
area 118,66 dan kemudian 118,14.
USDCHF: Buy on Dip. Bias bullish dalam jangka pendek. Diperlukan penembusan dan gerakan konsisten di atas area
resisten 0,9607 untuk memicu momentum bullish menuju area 0,9653. Pada pergerakan ke bawah, support terdekat berada
pada kisaran 0,9508. Penembusan di bawah area tersebut akan memabawa harga turun, dengan potensi menguji area
0,9455.
USDIDR: Buy on Dip. Bias bullish dengan indikasi rebound, terutama jika harga mampu break konsisten di atas area 12.916.
Ini dapat memicu momentum rally lebih lanjut dengan menguji ulang area resisten berikutnya di 12.939. Pada sisi sebaliknya,
support terdekat berada di area 12.864. Break di bawah area tersebut bisa memicu skenario koreksi bearish menuju area
12.835.
Sesuai dengan ekspektasi kami, pasar SUN Indonesia ditutup menguat pada awal pekan ini. Penguatan ini dipicu oleh
hasil rilis data indeks harga konsumen Amerika Serikat yang masih lemah dan pemotongan GWM bank besar di China pekan
lalu. Hari ini kami melihat pergerakan harga SUN akan bervariatif dengan yield FR0070 akan bergerak antara posisi 7,440% 7,540%. Kami melihat likuiditas di pasar SUN Indonesia mulai mengering dan menjadi pertanda bahwa kemungkinan untuk
pelemahan harga SUN ke depan. DJPPR akan kembali melakukan lelang hari ini dengan menawarkan empat seri yakni SPNS08102015 (Kupon: diskonto; Maturity: 8 Oct 2015), PBS006 (Kupon: 8,250%; Maturity: 15 Sep 2020), PBS007 (Kupon:
9,000%; Maturity: 15 Sep 2040) dan PBS008 (Kupon: 7,000%; Maturity: 15 Jun 2016). Kami melihat permintaan yang masuk
akan mengalami kelebihan permintaan sebesar 1.5x – 2.5x dengan indikasi Weighted Average Yield (WAY) SPN-S08102015
(range: 5,820% – 5,920%), PBS006 (range: 7,500% – 7,600%), PBS007 (range: 8,280% – 8,380%) and PBS008 (range:
7,050% – 7,150%).
Foreign Exchange: Daily Levels
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
AUD/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
AUD/JPY
Second resistance
1.0871
119.96
0.7894
1.5022
0.9653
0.7757
129.3167
93.6797
First Resistance
1.0805
119.57
0.7810
1.4965
0.9607
0.7709
128.6333
92.8683
Current Spot
1.0740
119.33
0.7705
1.4900
0.9562
0.7648
128.1600
91.9460
First Support
1.0692
118.66
0.7674
1.4869
0.9508
0.7628
127.4333
91.5983
Second Support
1.0645
118.14
0.7622
1.4830
0.9455
0.7595
126.9167
91.1397
USD/SGD
USD/MY R
USD/IDR
USD/PHP
USD/THB
EUR/SGD
CNY /MYR
SGD/MY R
Second resistance
1.3545
3.6499
12939
44.4223
32.5067
1.4622
0.5887
2.7140
First Resistance
1.3514
3.6357
12916
44.3197
32.4533
1.4551
0.5863
2.7019
Current Spot
1.3497
3.6410
12969
44.2800
32.4310
1.4495
0.5872
2.6985
First Support
1.3435
3.6069
12864
44.1447
32.3333
1.4428
0.5816
2.6813
1.3387
3.5923
12835
44.0723
32.2667
*Values calculated based on pivots, a formula that projects support/resistance for the day.
1.4376
0.5792
2.6728
Second Support
Source: Maybank FX Research
PT Bank Internasional Indonesia – Global Markets Group
1
Global Markets Group
Economic Research
Harga dan Yield Obligasi Pemerintah
Perbandingan Yield Obligasi
Penutupan
(20 /04)
Perubahan
Harga H-1
FR69
101.70
-7
FR70
105.74
5
Penutupan
(20/04)
Perubahan
(bps)
2.91
-0.00
1.31
-0.01
158.81
-2.66
Indonesia 5Y USD Bond (%)
FR71
111.58
10
US 5Y Treasury Bond (%)
FR68
105.50
-1
Indonesia 5Y CDS (bps)
Suku Bunga (%)
Harga Obligasi Ritel (ORI)
Fed Rate
20/04
17/04
ORI009
99.89
99.89
ORI010
102.08
102.08
ORI011
102.80
102.86
SR004
100.00
100.03
SR005
99.37
99.38
SR006
102.47
102.47
SR007
101.61
101.63
Sumber: Bloomberg
Agenda Ekonomi Global (WIB)
21-Apr
8:30am
AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
4:00pm
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Tentative
7:30pm
22-Apr 3:00am
6:50am
7:30am
8:30am
9:00am
3:30pm
4:00pm
8:00pm
9:00pm
9:30pm
EUR
GBP
CAD
CAD
JPY
AUD
AUD
AUD
CNY
GBP
ZEW Economic Sentiment
30-y Bond Auction
Wholesale Sales m/m
Annual Budget Release
Trade Balance
MI Leading Index m/m
CPI q/q
Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
CB Leading Index m/m
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
0.18
LIBOR 3M
0.28
JIBOR O/N
5.73
JIBOR 1M
6.50
JIBOR 3M
6.87
Harga Komoditas
Komoditas
USD/bbl
56.14
MYR/ton
2,159.00
Batubara
USD/ton
61.80
Emas Dunia
USD/TOunce
1,194
Sumber: Bloomberg
Indikator Pasar Keuangan Indonesia
USD-Rp
IHSG
10Y Govt. Yield (%) Kanan
14,000
12,000
10
9
10,000
8,000
8
6,000
7
CHF
EUR
USD
EUR
USD
USD
2,000
PT Bank Internasional Indonesia – Global Markets Group
Harga
CPO
4,000
Sumber: Forex Factory
Satuan
Minyak WTI
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes
ZEW Economic Expectations
Italian Retail Sales m/m
HPI m/m
Consumer Confidence
Existing Home Sales
Crude Oil Inventories
0.00-0.25
LIBOR 1M
0
6
5
Sumber: Bloomberg
2
Global Markets Group
Economic Research
Macro Economic Indicators
Indicators
Inflation (%YoY)
Core Inflation (%YoY)
Exchange Rate Eop (Rp/US$)
Curent Account (% GDP)
Fiscal Balance (% GDP)
Interest Rate
BI Rate (% p.a)
Time Deposit 3 month (% p.a)
Lending rate working capital (% p.a)
2013
1Q
7.32
4.61
11404
-1.97
2014
2Q
3Q
6.70
4.53
4.81
4.04
11969
12212
-3.97
-2.99
4QF
8.36
4.93
12440
-2.81
7.50
7.61
12.12
7.50
8.28
12.37
7.50
8.34
12.63
7.50
9.38
12.79
7.75
8.95
12.81
26.53
13.67
20.43
34.95
21.60
13.60
1.77
1230
10.18
7744
9.62
172.4
6.25
99.4
5.58
24.88
12.93
16.58
34.64
19.45
11.56
18.57
12.72
17.30
22.46
17.20
13.64
15.13
10.14
13.33
16.40
13.16
13.32
17.19
11.50
10.80
13.20
11.60
12.30
329
10.98
1984
1.18
314
2.41
2218
13.01
291
-5.08
1851
-0.89
275
-14.38
1814
-7.09
102.6
5.14
107.7
5.03
111.2
4.92
111.9
5.01
8.38
4.98
12189
-3.18
-2.23
2014F
1QF
7.49
4.65
13074
-2.01
2015
2QF
3QF
8.25
8.48
5.12
5.06
13150
13400
-3.10
-2.69
4QF
5.01
4.31
13500
-2.19
7.75
8.95
12.81
7.50
8.92
12.70
7.50
8.67
12.55
7.50
8.55
12.49
7.25
8.48
12.43
7.25
8.48
12.43
17.19
11.50
10.80
13.20
11.60
12.30
2.20
1208
-1.78
7867
1.59
160.8
5.94
111.9
5.02
15.66
11.41
14.33
12.99
13.19
15.23
11.21
8.91
13.49
14.38
12.44
12.45
10.89
9.48
15.35
17.73
14.32
13.32
12.55
10.04
18.34
19.75
16.42
14.56
287
-12.53
1620
-18.37
297
-5.17
1807
-18.54
300
3.38
2005
8.36
324
17.76
2157
18.86
115.2
5.19
115.6
5.37
117.0
5.74
117.5
5.70
12.55
10.04
18.34
19.75
16.42
14.56
2.70
1209
0.11
7588
-3.54
290.3
5.85
117.5
5.50
8.36
4.93
12440
-2.95
-2.20
2015F
5.01
4.31
13500
-2.50
-1.80
Credit
Growth (% YoY)
Property Credit
Consumer credit
Working Capital Credit
Investment Credit
Total Credit
Deposit
NPL Commercial Banks (%)
Car Sales (1000 Units)
Car Sales Growth (% y-o-y)
Motorcycle Sales (1000 Units)
Motorcycle Sales Growth (%y-o-y)
Government Capex (Rp tn)
Unemployment Rate (%)
International Reserve (US$ bn)
GDP Growth (%)
Note : the red numbers are forecast
Source : BII Economic Research
BII ECONOMIC RESEARCH DIVISION
Sentral Senayan III, 8th Floor
Jl. Asia Afrika No. 8, Gelora Bung Karno - Senayan
Jakarta 10270, Indonesia
Ph: +62 (021) 29228888
Fax: +62 (021) 29228849
Juniman
Chief Economist
[email protected]
Anup Kumar
Fixed Income Analyst
[email protected]
Myrdal Gunarto
Industry Analyst
[email protected]
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