Peran teori dan gravity model

EKONOMI INTERNASIONAL I
Pertemuan III : Peranan teori perdagangan
internasional dan Gravity model
Ferry Prasetyia, SE., MAppEc
Peranan Teori perdagangan
 Analisa
faktor penyebab perdagangan
 Analisa pola perdagangan
 Rumusan kebijakan perdagangan
 Perbedaan persepektif terhadap
perdagangan
 Persoalan dan solusi perdagangan
internasional
Gravity Model

Tingkat volume perdagangan internasional sangat
ditentukan oleh
– jarak antara negara,
– ukuran ekonomi negara (GDP)
 Dari rumusan diatas dapat diformulasikan sebagai berikut
(Krugman and Obsfeld, 2008):
Tij = A x Yi x Yj /Dij
Dimana:
Tij : Nilai perdagangan antara negara i dan j
A : konstanta
Yi : GDP di negara i
Yj : GDP di negara j
Dij : jarak antara negara i dan j
Gravity Model (cont.)

Fakta empiris menunjukan bahwa persoalan
ukuran ekonomi sangat berkaitan dengan volume
ekspor dan impor
– Negara besar memproduksi barang dan jasa lebih
banyak, sehingga dapat mengekspor
– Negara besar dapat pendapatan dari barang dan jas
yang dijual, sehingga masyarakatnya dapat membeli
produk impor lebih banyak.
Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)
Fig. 2-1: Total U.S. Trade with Major
Partners, 2006
3 of the top 10 trading partners with the U.S.
in 2005 were also the 3 largest European
economies: Germany, UK, and France.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)
Fig. 2-2: The Size of European Economies, and the
Value of Their Trade with the United States
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, European Commission
Faktor lain yang mempengaruhi
Gravity Model
Karakteristik geografi
Kebudayaan masyarakat
Perbatasan antara negara
Multi National
Corporation
Fig. 2-3: Economic Size and Trade
with the United States
Source: U.S. Deparment of Commerce, European Commission
Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)
Fig. 2-4: Canadian Provinces and U.S. States
That Trade with British Columbia
Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)
Table 2-3: Trade with British Columbia, as
Percent of GDP, 1996
Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)
Fig. 2-5: The Rise, Fall, and Rise of
International Trade Since 1830
Source: Richard E. Baldwin and Phillipe Martin, “Two Waves of Globalization: Superficial Similarities,
Fundamental Differences,” in Horst Siebert, ed., Globalization and Labor (Tubingen: Mohr, 1999).
Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)
Fig. 2-6: The Composition of World
Trade, 2005
Source: World Trade Organization
Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)
Table 2-4: Manufactured Goods as a Percent
of Merchandise Trade
Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)
Fig. 2-7: The Changing Composition of
Developing-Country Exports
Source: United Nations Council on Trade and Development
Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)
Fig. 2-8: Tradable Industries’ Share of
Employment
Source: J. Bradford Jensen and Lori G. Kletzer, “Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of
Services Outsourcing,” Peterson Institute of Economics Working Paper 5-09, May 2005
Sumber: Krugman and Obsfeld (2008)