Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global

Perkembangan Triwulan Perekonomian
Indonesia:
Terbitlah Terang
Shubham Chaudhuri
Ekonom Senior
14 September 2009
LP3ES
Jakarta, Indonesia
Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global,
dan jalan kedepan
 Indonesia berhasil menembus badai dengan cukup
baik
Mengapa demikian?
 Habis gelap, terbitlah terang
 Agenda kebijakan mendatang
Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
5 fakta
1. Pertumbuhan terus meningkat
2. …dan lebih kuat dari sejumlah negara lain
3. Kondisi pasar-pasar modal mulai membaik
4. Inflasi berada pada tingkat rendah… namun tetap lebih tinggi
dari negara-negara tetangga
5. Dampak sosial cukup terbatas
Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
Pertumbuhan mulai meningkat pada awal 2009
 Setelah mandeg pada akhir 2008, angka pertumbuhan triwulan
menunjukan pemulihan pada paruh pertama 2009
 Ekspor pulih lebih cepat dari impor, menopang PDB
 Permintaan domestik tetap kuat, ditopang belanja pemilu pada awal
tahun dan kini belanja stimulus pemerintah
(aggregate GDP growth)
4 Per cent
Per cent
8
Year on year (RHS)
3
6
QoQ seasonally
adjusted (LHS)
2
4
1
2
0
0
Jun-02
Mar-04
Dec-05
Sources: BPS via CEIC, World Bank
Sep-07
Jun-09
Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
…indikator lain juga menunjukan pemulihan
120
Index
 Setelah kemerosotan pada 2008
akhir, sejumlah indikator menjukan
pemulihan di awal 2009
 Kepercayaan konsumen
mencapai level-level tertinggi
 Permintaan thdp kendaraan
bermotor mulai pulih
 Kegiatan industri mulaipulih
50
%
40
30
Cement
sales
Electricity use
by industry
20
-30
2005
100
(LHS)
BI retail
sales index
(SA; RHS)
2006
2007
2008
2009
200
180
80
160
70
140
Danarakesa consumer survey (LHS)
60
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
90%
Motorcycles
Vehicles
60%
-30%
Industrial
production
220
90
0%
0
-20
BI consumer
confidence index
30%
10
-10
110
Index
240
-60%
2005
Sources: BPS, GAI, PLN, ICA and Astra via CEIC,
Danarakesa, World Bank
2006
2007
2008
2009
120
Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
Pertumbuhan lebih kuat dari negara-negara lain
 Gejolak ekstrim di pasar-pasar modal pada akhir 2008 membuat output
mayoritas ekonomi merosot tajam
 Perekonomian global mulai kembali stabil dan pulih pada triwulan kedua
(GDP growth,
quarterly seasonally adjusted)
6
%
4
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
2
0
-2
-4
Thailand
Sources: CEIC, Haver Analytics, BPS, JP Morgan, World Bank
Japan
Malaysia
Euro Area
U.S.
Philip.
Indonesia
China
India
-6
Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
Pasar-pasar modal mulai stabil
 Yields pada utang Indonesia telah kembali pada level 2008 awal
 Spreads atas utang Indonesia meningkat tajam saat pasar modal
bergejolak, dan Indonesia dinilai sangat rentan
 Volatilitas Indonesia juga dianggap lebih tinggi dari negara-negara lain
 Spreads utang Indonesia kini sudah pulih, dan dibawah level-level pasar
emerging lainnya
12
%
10
8
(EMBI spreads on sovereign USD bonds)
Indonesian USD
bond spreads
(LHS)
Indonesian spreads
less global emerging market average (RHS)
Jan 07 Jul 07
Jan 08 Jul 08
Indonesia
15
240
12
160
9
4
0
(local currency 5 year bond yields)
32018
6
2
40021
%
bps
Jan 09 Jul 09
80
6
0
3
-80
Philippines
Thailand
0
Jan
08
Sources: JP Morgan, BI, CEIC, World Bank
Apr
08
Jul
08
Oct
08
Jan
09
Apr
09
Jul
09
Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
Pasar-pasar modal mulai stabil
 Rupiah, cadangan devisa telah
kembali stabil
 Saat gejolak pasar
mencapai puncak ,
depresiasi rupiah mencapai
sepertiga nilai semula,
sementara cadangan
devisa turun drastis –
sebelum kemudian pulih
kembali
IDR/
12,600
Foreign exchange reserves
USD
(USD bn; RHS)
12,000
USD
65
bn
60
11,400
55
10,800
50
10,200
Exchange rate
(IDR/USD; LHS)
45
9,600
40
9,000
35
8,400
30
Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09
Source: BI
Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
Inflasi, pada titik terendah pun, tetap relatif tinggi
 Inflasi mendekati titik terendah
 Kendati demikian, tingkat inflasi
Indonesia tetap jauh diatas mitramitra ekspornya
 Harga pangan yang lebih sangat
menguntungkan rumah tangga
miskin
 Inflasi inti tidak turun begitu jauh
6
Per cent
Per cent
Food
(RHS)
5
24
20
4
20
Per cent
Per cent
Indonesia
15
15
16
3
Poverty
basket
(RHS)
Inflation
(RHS)
2
1
12
8
20
India
10
10
China
5
5
0
0
4
0
0
Inflation - monthly
(LHS)
-1
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
-4
Feb-09
Aug-09
Sources: BPS, CEIC< World Bank estimates of poverty basket inflation
Japan
Thailand
-5
Aug-05
-5
Aug-06
Aug-07
Aug-08
Aug-09
Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global
Dampak sosialnya terbatas
 Tingkat kemiskinan nasional turun 14.2%
 Pengangguran terbuka juga turun
 Lapangan kerja meningkat lebih cepat daripada populasi usia kerja
 Namun mayoritas pekerjaan berada disektor informal
25
% 23.4
National poverty rate (%)
19.1
20
18.4
18.2
17.4
Open unemployment rate
16.7
17.8
16.0
16.6
15.4
15
11.5
10
6.4
6.1
1999
2000
8.1
9.1
9.9
11.2
10.3
9.3
8.5
14.2
8.1
5
Source: BPS
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
Mengapa Indonesia berhasil menembus
badai?
 Struktur ekonomi
 Tidak banyak menghasilkan
produk-produk teknolog
tinggi , tapi lebih banyak
menghasilkan komoditas
%
2
1
GDP growth (Sep-08 to Mar-09)
 Tidak terlalu tergantung pada
ekspor – pasar domestik yang
besar (ditambah dengan
momentum)
(producers of capital and high-tech goods
suffered larger falls in GDP)
0
Indonesia
Australia
-1
Canada
-2
-3
-4
-5
France
Spain
US
Netherlands UK
Italy
Germany
-6
Malaysia
-7
-8
Korea
Japan
Mexico
Taiwan
Thailand
-9
0
4
8
12
16
20
Medium- and high-tech manufacturing output (% GDP)
Sources: IMF, CEIC, ThomsonReuters, RBA, BPS, World Bank
24
%
Mengapa Indonesia berhasil menembus
badai?
 Memasuki krisis dengan posisi kuat
 Sektor keuangan cukup kuat – tidak banyak dipengaruhi produkproduk kuangan kritis
 Kekuatan sektor swasta cukup rendah
 Utang publik rendah, posisi fiskal cukup kuat
(central government budget deficit and debt levels)
%
120
%
3.0
Deficit
100
2.5
(RHS)
80
2.0
Public debt
60
40
80.0 76.4
77.1
1.5
(LHS)
102.5
20
65.4 58.3
55.2
1.0
45.6
38.6 34.9 32.9 32.9
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2009*
Sources: MoF and World Bank
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.0
1998
0
0.5
Mengapa Indonesia berhasil menembus
badai?
 Pemerintah pro-aktif
 Pengamanan pasar modal
 Belanja stimulus plus pemotongan pajak
 Keuangan publik
(Central government budget balance and bank deposits
at the
end of the first half of each year,IDR
IDR
trillions)
IDR trillion
trillion
80
160
60
120
40
80
20
40
0
0
Fiscal Balance
Govt. deposits at BI (RHS)
-20
-40
S1 2005
S1 2006
S1 2007
Sources: Ministry of Finance and BI
S1 2008
S1 2009
Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang
Pemulihan berangsur
 Perekonomian global mulai kembali stabil ; diramalkan akan terjadi
pemulihan berangsur pada tingkat pertumbuhan
 Cina dan beberapa negara berkembang lainnya diramalkan akan
memimpin gelombang pemulihan
 Namun pertumbuhan global diramalkan akan tetap dibawah tingkat
rata-rata ~5%
6
(Annual growth of
Indonesia’s
major export destinations)
Per
cent
Per cent
6
Forecasts
3
3
0
0
Jun-09
Sep-09
-3
-3
2001
2003
Source: World Bank
2005
2007
2009
2011
Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang
Harga komoditas , mengalami pemulihan walau
tetap bergejolak
 Harga komoditas internasional telah kembali ke level 2006
 Diramalkan akan terjadi pemulihan skala kecil
100
Index
80
(Index, July 2008 peak = 100)
Indonesian
export prices
International
non-energy
60
International
energy
40
20
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: World Bank
Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang
Artinya bagi Indonesia, sekarang dan kedepan
 Indonesia pada posisi menguntungkan, tapi kondisi global yang melemah
akan menurunkan prospek pertumbuhan sementara mempertahankan
pertumbuhan juga membutuhkan usaha ekstra
 Upaya mengentaskan kemiskinan akan mengalami penurunan
 Defisit anggaran bisa lebih kecil dari anggaran yang ditawarkan
pemerintah Budget deficit may well be smaller than government’s
proposed budgets, suggesting greater scope for stimulatory spending
 Scope to lock-in current low inflation rates
2008
20092008 20102009 20112010
2011
Gross domesticGross
product
domestic product
6.1
4.3 6.1
5.4 4.3
6.0 5.4
6.0
Consumer priceConsumer
index
price index
9.8
4.7 9.8
5.6 4.7
6.5 5.6
6.5
Major trading partner
growth partner growth 2.1
Major trading
-1.8 2.1
3.3 -1.8
3.4 3.3
3.4
Poverty rate
14.215.4 13.614.2 11.5 13.6
11.5
Poverty rate
15.4
Sources: BPS, CEIC, World Bank. World Bank projections
Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang
Namun masih ada sejumlah tantangan global
 Tantangan jangka menengah adalah untuk melepaskan berbagai stimulus
yang digunakan untuk menghadapi krisis :
 Mengurangi stimulus fiskal dan beban utang negara maju menjadi
lebih susah akibat penduduk yang semakin tua dan political will
 Melepaskan stimulus moneter menjadi susah akibat ketidakpastian
seputar lags (terlalu cepat berdampak buruk pada pemulihan, terlallu
lambat dan inflasi melonjak) dan pergeseran dari inflasi produk ke
volatilitas harga aset
 Artinya volatilitas pasar modal kemungkinan akan tetap tinggi (kurs, harga
komoditas, suku bunga, dsb.)
 Indonesia sangat rentan
 Volatilitas, dan dampaknya pada ekonomi, akan tetap lebih kecil dari
akhir 2008
 Tantangan jangka panjang
 Ketidakseimbangan global – membaik tapi tetap tinggi kareana
negara-negara OECD lebih menghemat
 Peralihan struktural ke harga energi dan modal dunia yang lebih tinggi
– ditambah dengan harga karbon yg lebih tinggi?
Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang
…resiko-resiko yang berdampak pada outlook
Indonesia
 Skenario
(Annual GDP growth)
7
Per cent
High
Per cent
Low
(Poverty rate)
7
Reference
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2001
2003
2005
2007
Sourcse: BPS, World Bank projections
2009
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
Reference projection
15..4
14.2
13.6
11.5
High scenario
15..4
14.2
13.9
11.8
Low scenario
15..4
14.2
13.4
11.3
Looking ahead to accelerating growth
Rising or floating
Per-capita real GDP grow th trajectories
(constant 2000 USD)
1600
Indonesia
"rising"
Thailand
(1979 to 1993)
1200
Philippines
(1993 to 2006)
Indonesia
"floating"
800
400
Indonesia
(1978 to 2007)
Source: World Bank
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
0
Realizing the development agenda
 Indonesia is poised for private sector driven investment and
growth with the right policy improvements for the investment
climate and complementary public investments
 Indonesia can afford to spend more on these development
priorities
 Indonesia’s fiscal and debt position is strong…
 …and there are resources to be had if energy subsidies are
reduced
A big push on infrastructure – a two part
strategy
 Indonesia is ready for and needs some breakthroughs:
 Easing the transport bottleneck:
 the Trans-Java highway (trans Sumatra too?)
 This could change global perceptions (Indonesia as a BRIC?) while
being desirable in its own right
 While delivering a big push at the local level by:
 Building world-class cities by Investing in urban infrastructure (mass
transport, housing, water and sanitation) in the key cities that drive
Indonesian competitiveness
 Revitalizing PDAMs to provide water and sanitation to Indonesia’s
citizens (and especially a growing middle class)
 But this will require providing resources and changing incentives –
including through performance linked matching grants to Local
Governments for roads/water/sanitation
Accelerating investment climate reforms and
attacking coordination problems
 Take a more aggressive stance toward facilitating domestic and
foreign investment including
 Lower entry barriers, including the time and cost to start a
business, the Negative List (maintaining the positive
improvements in the 2007 revision while relaxing restrictions in
key sectors)
 Lower operating costs with a focus on actionable steps to
improve logistics,
 Improve trade facilitation (replacing paper copies with a single
electronic document and approval) through the National Single
Window
 and control the proliferation of non-tariff barriers that raise
costs and reduce competitiveness
 To solve difficult coordination problems success here might
require a Regulatory Reform Commission with a broad mandate
and authority to balance interests, address policy, coordination
and implementation issues
…and the sectors with major reforms have
experienced accelerat growth
 Service sectors, many deregulated at the start of the decade, have been
growing much faster than the rest of the economy
 Partly this reflects the fact that telecoms, retailing and domestic airlines
all experienced rapid growth
 But partly that other sectors, especially mining and manufacturing have
not been doing as well
10
%
8
(average annual growth)
Agriculture, mining &
manufacturing
Services
6
4
2
0
2000-02
Sources: BPS and World Bank
2002-04
2004-08
10/16/08
Putting in place a Social Protection System
Consistent with Middle Income Status
 Opportunities and Challenges
 Indonesia has the resources and institutional capacity to
develop effective SP systems
 as demographic and epidemiological challenges mount
 Key elements
 Build proven and successful social assistance and poverty
alleviation programs (PNPM, BOS, BLT,…) into a
comprehensive social assistance program
 Lay the groundwork for a future National Health Insurance
System that is clear, feasible and affordable
 And put in place a grand bargain between employers and
workers on severance pay that provides worker’s security
without discouraging job creation
10/16/08
But all of this will require a bigger push on
institutional and civil service reforms
 Replicate models of institutional reform underway (at the
Ministry of Finance – especially Tax and Treasury) in other
institutions with significant contact with the public—Customs,
BPOM, Manpower, Trade and Industry…
 Complement ongoing bureaucracy reforms at the institution
level with a modernized regulatory framework and central
institutional set-up for civil service policy making, regulation and
management
 Improve compensation, recruiting and promotion but link it to
accountability
 Allowing fit for function institutions (not one size fits all)
Indonesia Economic and Policy Update:
Clearing Skies
Shubham Chaudhuri
Senior Economist
14 September 2009
LP3ES
Jakarta Indonesia