indonesia di tahun 2014

INDONESIA:
MENGHADAPI 2014
FAUZI ICHSAN
MANAGING DIRECTOR & SENIOR ECONOMIST
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Februari 2014
Indonesia dalam konteks global:
“Ekonomi keenam belas terbesar di dunia dalam tantangan”
ISU UTAMA:
“BERAKHIRNYA KEBIJAKAN MONETER EKSTRA LONGGAR DI AS”
•
Investor global menilai risiko krisis finansial di Eropa dan AS jauh mengecil
•
Penciutan kebijakan quantitative easing (QE) bank sentral AS
•
Berakhirnya QE di AS akan membatasi aliran modal ke emerging markets
•
Revolusi shale gas di AS membatasi pulihnya harga komoditas energi global
•
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina dan India diperkirakan stabil di tahun 2014
Major heading
3
EKONOMI DUNIA:
“DIPERKIRAKAN MEMBAIK DI TAHUN 2014”
Pertumbuhan ekonomi, %: Pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia terbantu pemilu di tahun 2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013P
2014P
2015P
2016P
Amerika Serikat
-2.6
3.0
1.8
2.8
1.9
2.6
2.7
2.7
Zona Eropa
-4.1
1.7
1.6
-0.7
-0.4
1.3
2.1
2.6
Jepang
-5.2
3.9
-0.7
1.9
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.5
Cina
9.2
10.3
9.3
7.7
7.6
7.4
7.0
7.0
India
8.0
8.5
6.2
5.0
4.7
5.3
5.8
6.0
Korea Selatan
0.3
6.2
3.6
2.0
2.7
3.8
3.6
3.5
Indonesia
4.6
6.2
6.5
6.2
5.8
5.8
6.0
6.2
Thailand
-2.3
7.8
0.1
6.4
3.0
4.7
6.0
6.5
Malaysia
-1.7
7.2
5.1
5.6
4.7
5.3
5.3
5.1
Singapura
-0.8
14.5
5.3
1.3
3.9
4.4
4.6
4.5
Dunia
-0.7
5.3
3.3
2.5
2.8
3.5
3.8
3.9
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
4
PASAR SURAT UTANG NEGARA (SUN) GLOBAL:
“MENUNJUKAN RISIKO KRISIS GLOBAL KECIL”
Imbal Hasil SUN tenor 10 tahun
40.0
Krisis Euro – Yunani di
ambang kebangkrutan,
pasar SUN Eropa
terpuruk
35.0
30.0
25.0
% 20.0
Lehman brothers
bangkrut, memicu panik
di pasar finansial global
Yunani - EUR
15.0
10.0
Indonesia - USD
Italy - EUR
5.0
0.0
Amerika Serikat- USD
Sumber: Bloomberg
Major heading
5
BURSA SAHAM DI EMERGING MARKETS:
“TERTEKAN AKIBAT QE TAPERING DI AS”
Indeks bursa saham Cina, India, Brasil, Indonesia, Amerika Serikat (dalam USD)
Jan-2007 = 100
Bursa saham
emerging markets
terpuruk dengan
prospek berakhirnya
quantitative easing
di AS
300
Bursa saham
global terpuruk
karena krisis
Euro dan Yunani
Krisis KPR sub-prim di
AS memukul bursa
saham global
250
200
150
100
50
Indonesia
China
India
US
Jan-14
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-13
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-12
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-11
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-10
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-09
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-08
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-07
0
Brazil
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
6
BURSA SAHAM GLOBAL:
“PROSPEK SAHAM NEGARA BERKEMBANG TERGANTUNG KURS MATA UANGNYA”
Dengan membaiknya ekonomi negara maju, kinerja bursa
saham developed markets (DM) lebih baik dari emerging
markets (EM)
Namun saham emerging markets lebih murah dari
developed markets, sehingga diperkirakan bisa rebound,
terutama jika kurs EM mulai stabil
Kinerja bursa saham (USD), %: 12-bulan terakhir
PE ratio (Berdasarkan ekspektasi laba 2014)
20
Germany (DAX)
18
Japan (NKY)
16
US (SPX)
14
12
Euro (SX5E)
10
UK (FTSE)
8
China (SHCOMP)
6
India (SENSEX)
4
2
Russia (RTSI)
0
Indonesia (JCI)
Brazil (IBOV)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Sumber: Bloomberg
Major heading
7
SUKU BUNGA GLOBAL:
“SUKU BUNGA DI DEVELOPED MARKETS TETAP RENDAH”
Suku bunga acuan tetap tinggi di negara berkembang
dengan defisit neraca transaksi berjalan yang besar
Suku bunga acuan di AS, zona Euro dan Inggris
diperkirakan tetap rendah di tahun 2014
7.00
16
14
6.00
Brazil: Selic rate
12
5.00
10
4.00
8
3.00
6
Indonesia: BI rate
India: Repo rate
2.00
4
Euro
1.00
2
GBP
USD
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Sep-07
May-07
Jan-07
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-07
May-07
0
Jan-07
0.00
Sumber: Bloomberg
Major heading
8
PROYEKSI SUKU BUNGA DUNIA:
“SUKU BUNGA DUNIA AKAN TETAP RENDAH DI TAHUN 2014”
Pemulihan ekonomi dunia yang lambat akan menahan suku bunga tetap rendah
7/2/2014
T1-14P
T2-14P
T3-14P
T4-14P
T1-15P
USD (FFTR)
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
EUR (Refi)
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
JPY (O/N)
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
GBP (Base rate)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
AUD (RBA call)
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.75
3.00
IDR (BI rate)
7.50
7.75
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
9
PROYEKSI MATA UANG DUNIA:
“MATA UANG ASIA TERPENGARUH IMPLEMENTASI US FED TAPERING”
Mata uang negara Asia tertekan di Semester I-2014, sebelum pulih di Semester II-2014
6/2/2014
T1-14P
T2-14P
T3-14P
T4-14P
EUR/USD
1.36
1.32
1.31
1.32
1.34
USD/JPY
102
105
104
106
110
AUD/USD
0.90
0.87
0.86
0.88
0.90
GBP/USD
1.63
1.63
1.60
1.57
1.58
USD/CNY
6.06
6.03
6.01
5.98
5.92
USD/KRW
1,079
1,060
1,050
1,030
1,025
USD/IDR
12,194
12,100
12,500
12,000
11,400
USD/SGD
1.27
1.29
1.32
1.30
1.28
USD/THB
32.8
33.50
34.00
32.75
32.25
USD/MYR
3.32
3.35
3.45
3.38
3.30
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
10
PENGUATAN USD DI PASAR VALAS GLOBAL:
“DIDUKUNG VALUASI YANG MURAH DAN DEFISIT EKONOMI YANG MENGECIL”
USD didukung valuasi yang murah
OECD PPP, % valuasi vs. USD
35%
•
USD dalam tren penguatan sampai 2016
•
USD “undervalued”, berdasarkan indikator purchasing
power parity (PPP) dan TWI
•
Defisit fiskal dan defisit neraca transaksi berjalan (NTB)
AS menurun tajam paska resesi ekonomi dan revolusi
shale gas
•
Tapering kebijakan quantitative easing Federal Reserve
memicu kenaikan imbal hasil SUN dan obligasi AS
•
USD diperkirakan menguat di semester 1-2014, terhadap
mata uang G10 dan emerging markets
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
CHF
NOK
DKK
AUD
SEK
NZD
CAD
GBP
EUR
JPY
USD didukung turunnya defisit APBN dan perdagangan
DXY, Defisit APBN dan NTB AS (% dari PDB, RHS)
86
6
84
7
82
8
80
9
DXY: USD indeks
78
76
74
10
Defisit APBN & NTB , %
dari PDB – inversi (axis
kanan)
72
11
12
13
Q1-2010 Q3-2010 Q1-2011 Q3-2011 Q1-2012 Q3-2012 Q1-2013 Q3-2013
Sumber: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
11
PROYEKSI HARGA KOMODITAS DUNIA:
“REVOLUSI SHALE GAS DI AMERIKA SERIKAT MENEKAN HARGA ENERGI DUNIA”
Harga komoditas yang rendah berdampak negatif pada neraca pembayaran Indonesia
29/1/2014
T1-14P
T2-14P
T3-14P
T4-14P
Crude oil (NYMEX WTI) – USD/bl
97
100
97
102
103
Crude oil (Brent) – USD/bl
108
105
102
107
108
Coal (global COAL NC) –
USD/tonne
82
87
83
80
84
1,267
1,200
1,170
1,190
1,240
461
475
490
500
500
2,535
2,500
2,450
2,550
2,800
Gold (spot) – USD/oz
Rice– Thailand USD/tonne
CPO – MYR/tonne
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
12
Indonesia dalam konteks lokal:
“Isu ekonomi politik yang mengental”
Major heading
14
INDONESIA DI TAHUN 2014:
“TANTANGAN DI SEMESTER 1”
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014P
1) Pertumbuhan PDB riil
4.6%
6.2%
6.5%
6.2%
5.8%
5.8%
2) Inflasi (akhir tahun)
2.8%
7.0%
3.8%
4.3%
8.4%
5.0%
3) Inflasi (rata-rata tahunan)
4.9%
5.1%
5.4%
4.3%
7.0%
6.3%
4) USD/IDR (akhir tahun)
9,404
8,996
9,069
9,793
12,171
11,400
5) USD/IDR (rata-rata tahunan)
10,359
9,078
8,768
9,410
10,761
12,000
6) BI rate (akhir tahun)
6.50%
6.50%
6.00%
5.75%
7.50%
8.00%
10.15%
7.61%
6.10%
5.20%
8.50%
8.00%
8) Neraca perdagangan (milyar USD)
30.9
30.6
35.3
8.6
1.0
6.0
9) Neraca transaksi berjalan (milyar USD)
10.6
5.1
1.7
-24.4
-32.3
-26.9
10) Cadangan devisa (milyar USD)
66.1
96.4
110.1
112.8
99.4
105.0
7) Imbal hasil SUN 10-thn (akhir tahun)
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
15
LAJU PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI:
“EKUILIBRIUM BARU 5,5-6,0% PER TAHUN”
Pertumbuhan PDB rill Indonesia
15
6.9
2014P
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
-0.3
0
1980
-5
-10
-15
Devaluasi IDR akibat
jatuhnya harga
minyak dunia
Krisis finansial Asia
diikuti krisis ekonomi
dan politik
Krisis finansial
global menjelang
resesi dunia
-13.4
%
1978
0.8
2.5
5
4.9
3.6
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.7
5.5
6.3
6.0
4.6
6.2
6.5
6.2
5.8
5.8
6.0
5.9
4.9
5.8
7.5
7.5
8.9
7.2
7.3
7.5
8.2
7.8
4.9
8.8
8.5
7.2
4.8
7.8
10
Rata-rata pertumbuhan
menjelang krisis
finansial Asia: 6.5%
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik, Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
16
SEKTOR FINANSIAL:
“POTENSI BESAR NAMUN TERKOREKSI OLEH KENAIKAN SUKU BUNGA”
Masih banyak ruang untuk tumbuh karena ekonomi
Indonesia masih tergolong under-levered
Masih banyak ruang untuk tumbuh karena peranan bursa
saham dalam ekonomi Indonesia masih terbatas
Rasio kapitalisasi bursa saham terhadap PDB
nominal (%), 2012
Rasio kredit perbankan terhadap PDB nominal
(%), 2012
150
115
224
157
118
151
154
49
102
108
Amerika Serikat
49
101
Thailand
32
48
Brasil
47
35
Indonesia
93
Korea Selatan
97
Singapura
India
Malaysia
Filipina
Cina
Cina
Singapura
Malaysia
Korea Selatan
Thailand
Brasil
India
Filipina
Indonesia
14
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
17
KOMPONEN INDEKS PASAR SAHAM INDONESIA:
“PERAN PASAR DOMESTIK YANG DOMINAN”
Indeks komponen IHSG Jan-2008 = 100
500
450
400
350
Konsumsi
300
250
200
Properti & konstruksi
Perbankan & keuangan
150
100
Infrastruktur & transportasi
50
Pertambangan
JAKFIN Index
JAKCONS Index
JAKINFR Index
JAKPROP Index
12/31/2013
9/30/2013
6/30/2013
3/31/2013
12/31/2012
9/30/2012
6/30/2012
3/31/2012
12/31/2011
9/30/2011
6/30/2011
3/31/2011
12/31/2010
9/30/2010
6/30/2010
3/31/2010
12/31/2009
9/30/2009
6/30/2009
3/31/2009
12/31/2008
9/30/2008
6/30/2008
3/31/2008
12/31/2007
0
JAKMINE Index
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
18
PASAR SAHAM:
“SAHAM-SAHAM UNGGULAN SEMPAT TERPUKUL GLOBAL RISK AVERSION”
Perubahan
Harga
Target
PE ratio
1/13 ke 1/14
6/2/2014(IDR)
Konsensus (IDR)*
(perkiraan laba 2014)
JSE Indeks
-0.8%
4,425
N/A
13.8
Adaro
-42.4%
910
1,170
8.4
Adira Finance
-11.6%
8,550
N/A
N/A
Astra Int.
-12.6%
6,400
7,145
12.7
Bank BCA
2.8%
10,150
10,565
15.8
Bank Mandiri
-3.9%
8,625
9,548
10.6
Bank Rakyat Ind.
4.7%
8,400
9,422
9.2
Bumi Resources
-54.9%
309
459
N/A
Holcim
-33.1%
2,075
2,526
14.0
Indocement
3.0%
21,225
23,485
14.2
Indofood
15.2%
7,025
7,075
15.0
London Sumatra
-24.7%
1,705
1,801
13.1
United Tractors
-2.3%
17,900
19,336
12.3
Wijaya Karya
18.2%
2,035
2,186
17.6
Sumber: Bloomberg, * Target harga rata-rata para analis yang disurvei oleh Bloomberg
Major heading
19
RESIKO DOMESTIK:
“PELARIAN MODAL DARI INDONESIA”
“Ancaman pelarian modal”
Investasi asing di obligasi pemerintah Indonesia dan
SBI (USD milyar)
•
Sampai dengan akhir Desember 2013, investasi asing
di SUN Indonesia dan SBI mencapai USD 26.8 milyar
•
Investor asing menguasai hampir sekitar 40% dari
kapitalisasi bursa saham Indonesia (USD 346 milyar
per akhir Desember 2013) – walau lebih dari separuh
invetasi asing ini adalah investasi jangka panjang
•
Resiko pelarian modal ada karena tapering QE di dan
prospek kenaikan suku bunga di AS, yang mendorong
investor global untuk membatasi aliran modal ke
emerging markets
•
Perlu diperhatikan bahwa sebagian besar investasi
asing ke bursa saham lebih bersifat “strategis” (jangka
panjang) ketimbang jangka pendek
•
BI harus terus meningkatkan cadangan devisa yang
dimilikinya untuk meminimumkan resiko pelarian modal
Feb-09
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Govt. bonds
SBI
Cadangan devisa (USD milyar)
150
120
90
60
Jan-14
Jul
Oct
Apr
Jan-13
Jul
Oct
Apr
Jan-12
Jul
Oct
Apr
Jan-11
Jul
Oct
Apr
Jan-10
Jul
Oct
Apr
Jan-09
Jul
Oct
Apr
Jan-08
30
Sumber: Kementrian Keuangan, Bank Indonesia
Major heading
20
BEBERAPA INDIKATOR RESIKO INDONESIA:
“LEBIH BAIK DIBANDING BANYAK NEGARA DENGAN PERINGKAT INVESTMENT-GRADE”
Sebagian besar indikator resiko Indonesia menunjukkan perbaikan dalam 10 tahun terakhir
2014P
2013
2012
2011
2010
2014P
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
5
Pengangguran (LHS)
2014P
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0
2008
0
Rasio neraca transaksi berjalan terhadap PDB nominal (LHS)
Rasio pembayaran utang luar negeri terhadap ekspor (RHS)
10
2007
10
15
2006
2014P
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
20
20
2005
30
0
25
2004
2
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2003
40
2002
4
2000
50
-6
2004
Angka kemiskinan dan pengangguran (%)
6
-4
2003
-3
Utang luar negeri
Rasio neraca pembayaran (%)
-2
2002
2000
-2.5
2001
Utang pemerintah
2009
-2
2008
20
2007
-1.5
2006
40
2005
-1
2004
60
2003
-0.5
2002
80
2001
0
2000
100
2001
Rasio defisit anggaran pemerintah terhadap PDB nominal
(%)
Rasio utang bruto terhadap PDB nominal
(%)
Kemiskinan (RHS)
Sumber: Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik
Major heading
21
PERINGKAT SOVEREIGN RISK INDONESIA:
“RISIKO KEHILANGAN PERINGKAT INVESTMENT GRADE KECIL”
Peringkat investment grad bisa dipertahankan selama defisit fiskal kecil dan cadev BI tidak terkuras tajam
BBB
Baa2
Investment grade
BBB-
BB
Moody's (RHS)
Fitch
S&P
BB+
Baa3
Fitch
Ba1
Ba2
Kirisis ekonomi Indonesia
berujung pada downgrade
peringkat Indonesia
BB-
Ba3
B+
B1
Moody’
B
B2
B-
B3
CCC+
Caa1
S&P
2014P
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
Caa2
1995
CCC
Major heading
22
INDONESIA MENUJU PEMILIHAN UMUM 2014:
“POLITIK KEBIJAKAN EKONOMI”
•
•
•
Kebijakan ekonomi yang reaktif bukan proaktif:
•
Akibat terlambatnya kenaikan harga BBM, rasio defisit anggaran pemerintah terhadap PDB naik dari
1,9% di tahun 2012 ke 2,2% di tahun 2013 karena subsidi energi naik
•
Rasio neraca transaksi berjalan terhadap PDB nominal memburuk, dari surplus 0,2% di tahun 2011
menjadi defisit 2,8% pada 2012 dan 3,7% pada 2013 akibat kenaikan impor minyak dan BBM
•
Akibat terlambatnya kenaikan harga BBM dan suku bunga, rupiah melemah tajam
Makin banyak kementerian yang mengeluarkan kebijakan proteksionis yang tidak terkoordinasi
•
Makin besarnya tekanan terhadap BI dan OJK untuk membatasi kepemilikan asing di perbankan
•
Ketidakpastian regulasi di sektor pertambangan migas (misalnya pelarangan ekspor mineral mentah)
•
Pembatasan ekspor dan impor dalam perdagangan internasional (rotan, produk holtikultura, dll.)
Kinerja kabinet yang tidak terfokus dan makin kurang efisien :
•
Makin banyaknya kasus korupsi elit politik yang terungkap
•
Melemahnya koordinasi antarkementerian dalam hal kebijakan dan implementasinya
Major heading
23
POLITIK:
“PERTARUNGAN MENUJU 2014 TELAH DIMULAI”
•
Masa jabatan Presiden Yudhoyono berakhir di 2014, dan tidak dapat mencalonkan kembali
•
Beberapa kandidat presiden yang paling populer menurut beberapa survei:
•
Ketum Gerindra Prabowo Subianto
•
Gubernur Jakarta Joko Widodo
•
Mantan presiden dan Ketum PDIP Megawati Sukarnoputri
•
Ketum Golkar Aburizal Bakrie
•
Nama-nama kandidat presiden akan terus bermunculan, namun pertarungan antarkandidat
tidak didasarkan pada perbedaan ideologi
•
Indonesia akan tetap sekuler
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24
TANTANGAN:
“DARI REVOLUSI SHALE GAS KE PILPRES 2014”
•
Revolusi shale gas di Amerika Serikat dan dampaknya terhadap harga energi dunia
•
Defisit neraca transaksi berjalan, pelemahan rupiah, kenaikan inflasi dan suku bunga
•
Keluarnya “hot money” asing ke luar negeri
•
Kabinet koalisi dan parlemen tanpa mayoritas, yang rawan kehilangan fokus arah kebijakan
•
Pemilihan umum dan pemilihan presiden 2014
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Tata dunia baru
1990
USD trn
2000
USD trn
2010
USD trn
2020
USD trn
2030
USD trn
1
AS
5.9
AS
10.3
AS
15.0
US
23.5
Cina
53.8
2
Jepang
3.1
Jepang
4.7
Cina
5.9
China
21.9
US
38.5
3
Jerman
1.7
Jerman
1.9
Jepang
5.5
Jepang
6.1
India
15.0
4
Perancis
1.2
Inggris
1.5
Jerman
3.3
Jerman
5.1
Jepang
9.3
5
Italia
1.1
Perancis
1.3
Perancis
2.5
India
4.5
Jerman
7.4
6
Inggris
1.0
Cina
1.2
Inggris
2.3
Brazil
3.9
Brazil
6.3
7
Kanada
0.6
Italia
1.1
Brasil
2.1
Perancis
3.9
Inggris
5.8
8
Spanyol
0.5
Kanada
0.7
Italia
2.0
Inggris
3.7
Perancis
5.7
9
Brasil
0.5
Brasil
0.6
Kanada
1.6
Italia
2.7
Indonesia
4.7
10
Cina
0.4
Meksiko
0.6
Rusia
1.5
Rusia
2.6
Rusia
4.6
Sumber: Standard Chartered Research
Major heading
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