lampiran: gambaran ekonomi indonesia

Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian
Indonesia
Tantangan saat ini,
peluang masa depan
LAMPIRAN: GAMBARAN EKONOMI INDONESIA
Gambar Lampiran 1: Pertumbuhan PDB
Gambar Lampiran 2: Kontribusi terhadap PDB (pengeluaran)
(persen pertumbuhan)
(pertumbuhan trimulan-ke-triwulan), seasonally adjusted)
Percent
4
Percent
8
Percent
4
Percent
4
Year on year (RHS)
6
3
QoQ seas. adjust (LHS)
2
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
4
Average (LHS)*
1
2
-4
0
0
Mar-04
Dec-05
Sep-07
Jun-09
-4
Mar-08
Dec-08
Discrepancy
Gov cons.
Mar-11
Catatan: *rata-rata pertumbuhan triwulanan dari Q12000Q32010
Sumber: BPS, Bank Dunia
Sep-09
Jun-10
Net Exports
Mar-11
Investment
Private cons.
GDP
Sumber: BPS dan Bank Dunia
Gambar Lampiran 3: Kontribusi terhadap PDB (sektor)
Gambar Lampiran 4: Penjualan sepeda motor dan
kerndaraan bermotor
(pertumbuhan trimulan-ke-triwulan, seasonally adjusted)
(unit)
Percent
3
Percent
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
'000
'000
800
Motor cycles
(LHS)
600
75
400
50
Motor vehicles
(RHS)
200
Mar-08
Dec-08
Sep-09
Jun-10
Other (incl services)
Retail
Com & trans
Manu.
Mining and Const
Agriculture
Sumber: CEIC
Gambar Lampiran 5: Indikator konsumen
25
Mar-11
0
0
Jan-08
Feb-09
Mar-10
Apr-11
Sumber: CEIC
Gambar Lampiran 6: Indikator kegiatan industri
(indeks)
120
100
(pertumbuhan tahun-ke-tahun)
Index
Index
BI Consumer
Survey Index
(LHS)
100
300
Percent
30
20
BI Retail
sales (RHS)
80
20
Electricity
240
10
10
0
0
180
-10
60
Jan-08
Percent
30
120
Feb-09
Mar-10
Sumber: CEIC
THE WORLD BANK | BANK DUNIA
Apr-11
Cement
Industrial Production
-20
Jan-08
-10
-20
Feb-09
Mar-10
Apr-11
Sumber: CEIC
Juni 2011
44
Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian
Indonesia
Tantangan saat ini,
peluang masa depan
Gambar Lampiran 7: Aliran perdagangan riil
Gambar Lampiran 8: Balance of Payments
(pertumbuhan trimulan-ke-triwulan)
(miliar dolar Amerika)
20
Percent
Percent
20
USD bn
12
USD bn
12
Overall Balance
10
10
8
8
Current account
0
4
4
0
0
0
Exports
-10
-10
Errors and omissions
-4
Imports
Capital and financial account
-20
-20
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
-8
Mar-08
(miliar dolar Amerika)
USD bn
20
Exports (RHS)
15
125
Jun-10
10
2
5
75
0
50
Trade
Balance (LHS)
USD bn
Mar-11
USD bn
Non-resident portfolio
inflows, (RHS)
100
4
-2
Sep-09
(miliar dolar Amerika)
USD bn
0
Dec-08
Sumber: BI dan Bank Dunia
Gambar Lampiran 10: Cadangan internasional dan dana
capital asing
Gambar Lampiran 9: Neraca perdagangan
6
-8
Mar-11
Sumber: CEIC
8
-4
3
0
-3
Reserves (LHS)
-5
25
-4
5
-5
-10
Imports (RHS)
-6
Jan-08
Feb-09
0
-15
Mar-10
Apr-11
-8
Jan-08
Feb-09
Mar-10
Apr-11
Sumber: BPS dan Bank Dunia
Sumber: BI dan Bank Dunia
Gambar Lampiran 11: Term of trade dan implicit ekspor dan Gambar Lampiran 12: Inflasi dan kebijakan moneter
impor berdasarkan chained Fisher-Price indices
(pertumbuhan bulan-ke-bulan & tahun-ke-tahun)
index
index
300
300
250
250
4
Per cent
Per cent
3
12
Core Inflation, YoY
(RHS)
Terms of trade
200
200
150
150
100
50
Mar-05
50
0
Mar-07
Mar-09
Sumber: BPS dan Bank Dunia
THE WORLD BANK | BANK DUNIA
8
BI Rate
(RHS)
4
100
Chained import price
0
2
1
Chained export price
16
Headline Inflation YoY
(RHS)
Mar-11
0
-1
Jan-08
0
Inflation MoM
(LHS)
Nov-08
Sep-09
-4
Jul-10
May-11
Sumber: BPS dan Bank Dunia
Juni 2011
45
Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian
Indonesia
Tantangan saat ini,
peluang masa depan
Gambar Lampiran 13: Rincian tingkat harga konsumen
Gambar Lampiran 14: Tingkat inflasi negara tetangga
(persentasi dari kontribusi inflasi bulanan)
(pertumbuhan tahun-ke-tahun, May 2011)
1.8
Percent
Percent
Volatile
Administered
Core
1.8
0
2
4
Percent
6
8
0
2
4
6
Percent
8
Indonesia
1.2
1.2
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.0
-0.6
-0.6
*China
Phillipines
Thailand
Korea
*Malaysia
*Japan
Jan-09
Aug-09
Mar-10
Oct-10
May-11
Sumber: BPS dan Bank Dunia
Gambar Lampiran 15: Harga beras domestic dan
internasional
*April data terkini
Sumber: CEIC dan BPS
Gambar Lampiran 16: Tingkat kemiskinan, bekerja, dan tidak
bekerja
( rupiah per kilogram)
(data tahunan, persen)
IDR/Kg
Dashed: international Thai rice (cif) prices, in Rupiah
Solid: domestic wholesale rice prices
Medium quality:
Muncul I (domestic)
Thai 100% B 2nd grade (international)
11,000
9,000
Percent
11,000
9,000
7,000
5,000
5,000
Unemployment and
formal employment rate (LHS)
30
12
20
8
10
4
0
0
1,000
Feb-09
16
40
3,000
Low quality:
IR 64 III (domestic);
Thai A1 Super (international)
1,000
Jan-08
20
Poverty rate (RHS)
7,000
3,000
Percent
50
Mar-10
2006
Apr-11
2007
2008
2009
2010
Sumber: PIBC, FAO dan Bank Dunia
Gambar Lampiran 17: Indeks saham regional
Sumber: BPS, dan Bank Dunia
Gambar Lampiran 18: Indeks spot dollar dan rupiah
(indeks harian)
(indeks dan tingkat harga harian)
Index
Index
300
300
120
Index
IDR per USD
8000
JCI
250
250
SET
200
IDR/USD (RHS)
110
9000
200
BSE
100
150
Shanghai
100
10000
Dollar Index (LHS)
150
90
100
11000
IDR Appreciation
SGX
50
Jan-09
50
Oct-09
Jul-10
80
12000
Apr-11
Sumber: CEIC dan Bank Dunia
THE WORLD BANK | BANK DUNIA
Sumber: CEIC dan Bank Dunia
Juni 2011
46
Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian
Indonesia
Tantangan saat ini,
peluang masa depan
Gambar Lampiran 19: Yield obligasi 5 tahunan mata uang
lokal
Gambar Lampiran 20: Spread EMBI obligasi pemerintah
dengan obligasi dollar amerika
(persen, harian)
(basis poin, harian)
15
Percent
Percent
15
1050
Basis points
Basis points
150
900
Indonesia
10
10
200
Indonesian EMBI bond
spreads (LHS)
750
100
600
50
450
0
300
-50
Philippines
5
5
Thailand
Malaysia
150
United States
0
0
Jan-09
Aug-09
Mar-10
Oct-10
0
May-11
Jan-09
Oct-09
Sumber: CEIC dan Bank Dunia
Gambar Lampiran 21: Perbandingan tingkat kredit bank
umum
Sumber: CEIC dan Bank Dunia
(indeks bulanan)
(persen, bulanan)
190
Index
Index
-100
Indonesian spreads less
EMBI global average (RHS)
Jul-10
-150
Apr-11
Gambar Lampiran 22: Indikator keuangan sektor perbankan
190
100
170
80
150
60
Percent
Percent
10
Loan to Deposit Ratio (LHS)
Indonesia
170
8
India
150
Malaysia
130
110
Singapore
Thailand
130
40
110
20
90
0
THE WORLD BANK | BANK DUNIA
6
4
2
Jan 06
Sumber: CEIC dan Bank Dunia
Non-Performing
Loans (RHS)
Capital Adequacy Ratio (LHS)
USA
90
Return on
Assets Ratio
(RHS)
0
Oct 07
Jul 09
Apr 11
Sumber: BI dan Bank Dunia
Juni 2011
47
Perkembangan Triwulanan Perekonomian
Indonesia
Tantangan saat ini,
peluang masa depan
Tabel Lampiran 1: Realisasi dan estimasi anggaran belanja pemerintah
(triliun rupiah)
2008
2009
2010
2011 (p)
2011 (p)
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Budget
WB June
estimates*
A. State revenue and grants
1. Tax revenue
o/w income tax
- Oil and gas
- Non oil and gas
2. Non-tax revenue
o/w natural resources
i. Oil and gas
ii. Non oil and gas
981.6
658.7
327.5
77.0
250.5
320.6
224.5
211.6
12.8
848.8
619.9
317.6
50.0
267.5
227.2
139.0
125.8
12.8
1,014.0
744.1
356.6
58.9
297.7
267.5
170.1
152.7
17.3
1,104.9
850.3
420.5
55.6
364.9
250.9
163.1
149.3
13.8
1,189.4
858.6
432.3
77.0
355.3
330.8
217.9
198
20
B. Expenditure
1. Central government
2. Transfers to the regions
C. Primary balance
985.7
693.4
292.4
84.3
937.4
628.8
308.6
5.2
1,053.5
708.7
344.7
48.9
1,229.6
836.6
393.0
-9.4
1,280.3
875.7
404.6
21.9
(4.1)
(0.1)
(88.6)
(1.6)
(39.5)
(0.6)
(124.7)
(1.8)
(90.9)
(1.2)
D. SURPLUS / DEFICIT
Deficit (percent of GDP)
Catatan: * Untuk penghitungan proyeksi PDB nominal, Bank Dunia menggunakan metoda perhitungan perkiraan
penerimaan yang berbeda dengan perhitungan pemerintah (lihat bagian C pada IEQ Juni 2011 keterangan lebih lanjut).
Sumber: Depkeu dan Bank Dunia
Tabel Lampiran 2: Neraca pembayaran
(milyar dollar amerika)
2009
Balance of Paym ents
Percent of GDP
Current Account
Percent of GDP
Trade Balance
Q3
2011
2010
2008
2009
2010
Q4
Q1
-1.9
12.5
30.3
3.5
4.0
6.6
-0.4
2.3
4.3
2.4
2.6
4.1
0.1
10.6
5.7
1.8
3.8
1.9
0.0
2.0
0.8
1.2
2.5
1.2
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
5.4
7.0
11.3
7.7
3.1
3.7
6.1
3.9
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.9
0.8
0.6
0.6
1.0
9.9
21.2
21.3
4.7
7.1
4.8
4.6
5.4
6.4
6.2
Net Income & Current Transfers
-9.8
-10.6
-15.7
-2.9
-3.3
-2.9
-3.2
-4.2
-5.3
-4.3
Capital & Financial Accounts
-1.8
4.9
26.1
2.9
2.4
5.6
3.7
7.3
9.6
6.2
-0.4
0.9
3.7
2.0
1.6
3.5
2.1
3.9
5.1
3.2
Percent of GDP
Direct Investment
3.4
2.6
10.6
0.6
0.8
2.5
2.3
1.6
4.2
3.0
Portfolio Investment
1.8
10.3
13.2
3.0
3.5
6.2
1.1
4.5
1.4
3.6
Other Investment
-7.3
-8.2
2.2
-0.7
-1.9
-3.1
0.3
1.2
3.8
0.0
Errors & Om issions
-0.2
-3.0
-1.5
-1.2
-2.2
-0.9
0.3
-1.6
0.6
-0.5
Foreign Reserves*
51.6
66.1
96.2
62.3
66.1
71.8
76.3
86.6
96.2 105.7
Catatan: * Cadangan devisa pada akhir periode .
Sumber: BI dan BPS
THE WORLD BANK | BANK DUNIA
Juni 2011
48