MENGAPA BERINVESTASI? COMMON MISCONCEPTION
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STRATEGI INVESTASI MENGAPA BERINVESTASI? Untuk melindungi kekayaan (aset) terhadap pengaruh inflasi Untuk mendapatkan keuntungan yang lebih besar dimasa yang akan datang Untuk mengantisipasi ketidakpastian pendapatan dimasa yang akan datang Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan DEPARTEMEN KEUANGAN REPUBLIK INDONESIA COMMON MISCONCEPTION KEMANA BERINVESTASI? Investasi pada saham hampir sama dengan judi Efek Pendapatan Tetap (obligasi) memiliki pendapatan yang tetap Physical Assets Financial Assets Produk reksa dana adalah produk bank Produk reksa dana mirip dengan deposito Land Property Vehicles Precious metals Capital market Money market 1 INVESTASI DI PASAR UANG Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI) Deposito Berjangka (Time Deposits) INVESTASI DI PASAR MODAL Saham (Stocks) Obligasi (Bonds) Reksa Dana (Investment Funds) Commercial Papers Promissory Notes Obligasi yang jatuh tempo kurang dari 1 (satu) tahun Derivatives RISK/RETURN TRADEOFF RISK/RETURN TRADEOFF Risk / Return Characteristics Low Return High Risk High Potential Return Return Return Saham Low Risk Obligasi Reksa Dana Deposito Standard Deviation (Risk) Risk 2 HOW INVESTORS CAN MANAGE RISKS RISK FROM AN INVESTORS PERSPECTIVE Equities Issuer Specific Risk Don’t put all eggs in one basket, i.e. diversify Take a long-term view Legal Risk Do not market time, try dollar cost averaging instead Political risk Choose the level of risk they are comfortable with FX risk Economic Risk Business Risk Credit Risk Liquidity Risk Operational Risk Bonds and Cash Investors Market Risk Reksa Dana Perhaps Perhapsthe thebest bestadvice.... advice.... Do not invest in anything Do not invest in anythingyou youdon’t don’tunderstand! understand! DIVERSIFICATION $1,500 $1,500 Mid-1970s Recession Diversified Portfolio Stocks $500 Dec 1972 1987 Market Crash Diversified Portfolio Stocks $1,149 $1,014 $1,000 TIPE-TIPE INVESTOR $1,324 $1,227 $1,000 Conservative Investors Moderate Investors Aggressive Investors $500 Dec 1973 Dec 1974 Jun 1976 Jun 1987 Diversified Portfolio: 35% stocks, 40% bonds, 25% Treasury bills. Hypothetical value of $1,000 invested at month-end December 1972 and June 1987, respectively Jun 1988 Jun 1989 Dec 1990 Source: Ibbotson Associates. 3 SEBELUM BERINVENTASI… STRATEGI INVESTASI Tujuan investasi 9 9 9 9 Keamanan Dana Keamanan Dana dan Pendapatan Pendapatan dan Pertumbuhan Pertumbuhan Jangka waktu investasi Tingkat risiko yang sanggup ditanggung Keadaan keuangan Pengetahuan 9 9 Buy and Hold Strategy Active Strategy Tentang investasi secara umum Tentang produk yang akan dibeli BUY AND HOLD BUY AND HOLD Conservative Investors Moderate Investors Stock 30% Bond 40% Money Market 30% Stock 50% Bond 30% Money Market 20% 4 ACTIVE STRATEGY BUY AND HOLD Aggressive Investors Assets Allocation (Where) Bond 20% Securities Selection (Which) Market Timing (When) Money Market 10% Stock 70% MAKING THE RIGHT ASSETS ALLOCATION DECISION ASSETS ALLOCATION Stock Determinants of Portfolio Performance 100% 90% 80% Agg 70% 60% 50% Mod 94% 40% 30% Con 20% 10% 0% 4% Securities Selection 2% Asset Allocation Market Timing 0 20 40 60 80 100 5 ASSETS ALLOCATION ASSETS ALLOCATION Bond Agg Money Market Agg Mod Mod Con Con 0 20 40 60 80 100 SECURITIES SELECTION 0 Short-term vs. long term bonds Fixed rate vs. variable rate 40 60 80 100 BIG CAP VS SMALL CAP Big cap vs. small cap stocks Growth vs. value stocks 20 Focus Company Characteristics BIG CAP SMALL CAP Emphasis on large and well-established companies Emphasis on small, emerging, and start-up companies Reliable sales and dividends Sales and earnings fluctuate, dividends are minor Risks Usually diversified, so risk is low Un-diversified, so volatility of earnings and risk is high Return Moderate returns that include dividends No dividends but potentially high or low capital appreciation 6 GROWTH VS VALUE GROWTH Focus Company Characteristics Risks Return Emphasis on growing companies VALUE Emphasis on companies whose market value are low relative to earnings, dividends, or assets High P/E ratio Low P/E ratio Tend to be more volatile Tend to be less volatile High cap appreciation with little or no dividends Moderate or low capital appreciations with high dividends LONG TERM SHORT TERM Higher Lower Price Sensitivity FIXED RATE VS VARIABLE RATE Sensitivity to interest rate LONG TERM VS SHORT TERM BOND Fixed Variable Higher Lower VALUASI OBLIGASI 4 Analisa berdasarkan prinsip Time Value of Money (TVM) 4 Harga obligasi: Vb = Σ INT + (1 + kd)t M (1 + kd)N Kd = imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor N = lama jatuh tempo obligasi INT = jumlah pembayaran bunga M = nilai pari obligasi t = 1 sampai dengan N 7 CONTOH SOAL MARKET TIMING Perusahaan XYZ menerbitkan obligasi sebesar Rp. 100 milyar dengan tingkat bunga tetap 12% pertahun dan jatuh tempo dalam 3 tahun. Tingkat imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor atas obligasi ini adalah 10%. Berapakah harga pasar obligasi tersebut? Vb = 12 M (1 + = 12 M + 10%)1 (1 + + 10%)2 12 M (1 + 10%)3 100 M + (1 + 10%)3 Rp. 104.973.703.982 atau 104.97% Mengapa pasar bisa naik turun? Pasar akan naik apabila banyak investor yang menempatkan dananya di pasar modal Pasar akan turun apabila banyak investor yang menarik dananya dari pasar modal MARKET CYCLE Big cap growth stocks Long term bonds Recession Stagflation Small cap growth stocks Intermediate bonds EARLY RECOVERY Inflasi rendah atau dalam trend yang menurun Ekonomi berkembang tapi belum membawa pengaruh terhadap naiknya inflasi Early Recovery 4 1 3 2 Investasi di: Late Recovery Small cap growth stocks Intermediate bonds Big cap value stocks Short term bonds Small cap value stocks Intermediate bonds 8 STAGFLATION LATE RECOVERY Inflasi mulai bergerak naik Inflasi naik dengan tajam Ekonomi berkembang pesat Ekonomi mulai bergerak lambat Investasi di: Investasi di: Small cap value stocks Large cap value stocks Intermediate term bonds Short term bonds RECESSION PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION FOR EACH STAGE Conservative Moderate Aggressive Inflasi menurun tajam Ekonomi masih bergerak sangat lambat Investasi di: Large cap growth stocks Long Term bonds Early Recovery 50% stocks 40% bonds 10% cash 70% stocks 25% bonds 5% cash 90% stocks 10% bonds 0% cash Late Recovery 30% stocks 20% bonds 50% cash 50% stocks 10% bonds 40% cash 70% stocks 0% bonds 30% cash Stagflation 10% stocks 10% bonds 80% cash 30% stocks 25% bonds 45% cash 50% stocks 10% bonds 40% cash Recession 15% stocks 65% bonds 20% cash 40% stocks 45% bonds 15% cash 60% stocks 30% bonds 10% cash 9 MARKET TIMING & VOLATILITY • 150% Reduction of Risk over Time — 1926-2002 1-Year Holding Periods 5-Year Holding Periods 20-Year Holding Periods Compound Annual Return 125% 100% Definisi 75% 50% 25% 12.1% DOLLAR COST AVERAGING 5.5% 10.2% 3.8% Menempatkan dana secara bertahap pada suatu portofolio untuk menghindari risiko fluktuasi harga dalam jangka pendek 0% Tujuan -25% -50% -75% Small Company Stocks Large Company Stocks Government Bonds Treasury Bills Each bar shows the range of compound annual returns for each asset class over the period 1926-2002 Mengurangi risiko investasi Mendapatkan hasil yang lebih baik Source: IbbotsonAssociates DOLLAR COST AVERAGING NAB Penempatan Dana Jumlah UP 1.000 10.000.000 10.000 500 0 0 500 x 10.000 = 5.000.000 750 0 0 750 x 10.000 = 7.500.000 STRATEGI INVESTASI Hasil Investasi 1.000 x 10.000 = 10.000.000 NAB Penempatan Dana Jumlah UP 1.000 4.000.000 4.000 1.000 x 4.000 = 4.000.000 Hasil Investasi 500 3.000.000 6.000 500 x 10.000 = 5.000.000 750 3.000.000 4.000 750 x 14.000 = 10.500.000 10