INTISARI Perubahan iklim diperkirakan telah terjadi dan berdampak relatif besar mempengaruhi alam dan aktivitas manusia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan informasi (1) dampak perubahan iklim, kebijakan ekonomi, kebijakan sektor kehutanan, dan faktor eksternal terhadap kinerja ekonomi dan sektor kehutanan. (2) kebijakan pembangunan sektor kehutanan dan kebijakan ekonomi sebagai antisipasi dampak perubahan iklim. Penelitian ini menggunakan model persamaan simultan dinamis dengan data sekunder. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan perubahan iklim diperkirakan memberikan dampak relatif besar pada perekonomian dan sektor kehutanan. Simulasi model menunjukkan perubahan iklim diperkirakan dapat menurunkan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai akibat turunnya aktivitas ekonomi terutama konsumsi, investasi masyarakat, perdagangan luar negeri, output sektoral, pendapatan sektoral, penyerapan tenaga kerja sektoral dan sebagainya. Aktivitas ekonomi yang turun menyebabkan tingkat pengangguran meningkat, tetapi emisi karbon dan pembangunan manusia turun. Perubahan iklim sedikit meningkatkan kinerja sektor kehutanan terutama industri primer. Dampak perubahan iklim secara makroekonomi relatif besar dengan menggunakan PDB hijau tetapi terlihat semu dengan PDB konvensional. Dampak perubahan kebijakan ekonomi (moneter dan fiskal) dan perubahan faktor eksternal relatif besar terhadap perubahan kinerja perekonomian dan sektor kehutanan. Kebijakan kehutanan hanya berdampak pada sektor kehutanan, tetapi kurang berdampak besar pada kinerja ekonomi nasional. Simulasi model menunjukkan pengendalian jumlah hotspot, kebijakan penanaman hutan dan reboisasi, politik anggaran kementerian kehutanan, pembubaran Kementerian Kehutanan, perubahan harga komoditi (kayu, karet, dan sawit), penerapan pajak karbon, krisis ekonomi, penghapusan subsidi BBM, pemberantasan korupsi, dan target penurunan emisi karbon mempengaruhi kinerja ekonomi dan sektor kehutanan dengan dampak yang beragam. Untuk mengantisipasi dampak perubahan iklim, kebijakan yang dapat dilakukan adalah dengan mengkombinasikan kebijakan moneter, fiskal, dan kehutanan dengan tepat. Kebijakankebijakan yang dipakai sebaiknya dapat mengeliminasi dampak buruk dari perubahan iklim yang terjadi. Kata Kunci: Perubahan iklim, kebijakan, model ekonomi xiv ABSTRACT Climate change is believed to have occurred and has adverse impacts upon nature and human activities. This study aimed to obtain information on (1) the impacts of climate change, economic policy, forestry policy, and external factors on the performance of the economy and the forestry sector and (2) the forestry sector development policy and economic policy in anticipation of the impacts of climate change. This study used secondary time-series data and employed a dynamic simultaneous equation model. The results indicated that climate change was estimated to have relatively large impacts on the economy and the forestry sector. Simulation models suggested that climate change is expected to reduce the economic growth as a result of declining economic activities, especially consumption, public investment, foreign trade, as well as sectorial output, income, and employment. The felled economic activities caused the rise of unemployment rate, but the carbon emissions and human development down. Climate change slightly improved the performance of the forestry sector, especially the primary industry. Macroeconomic impacts of climate change were relatively large by using green GDP but look apparent with conventional GDP. The impacts of changes in economic policy (monetary and fiscal) and external factors were relatively large towards the changes in the economic performance and the forestry sector. Forestry policy only affected the forestry sector, but caused less profound impacts on the performance of the national economy. Simulation models indicated that control of the number of hotspots, policy on afforestation and reforestation, budget politics and the dissolution of the Ministry of Forestry, changes in commodity prices (wood, rubber, and palm), the implementation of a carbon tax, the economic crisis, the removal of fuel subsidy, the eradication of corruption, and the target in carbon emission reduction affect the performance of the economy and the forestry sector with diverse effects. To anticipate the impacts of climate change, policies should be implemented by combining the monetary, fiscal and forestry policies appropriately. The implemented policies should be able to eliminate the adverse impacts of climate change. Keywords: climate change, policy, economic models xv