Weekly Indo Perspective - CIMB

Weekly Indo Perspective
Back on Track
11.08.2016
Portrait of the week
Back on Track
“ There are no wrong turnings. Only paths
we had not known we were meant to
walk. ”
- Guy Gavriel Kay, Tigana Sumber: skyscrapercity.com
1
Perspective
of the Week
Thursday, Aug 11th 2016
Grafik 1.0 Indonesia Real GDP YoY
Selama periode 2011 – 2Q16 kemungkinan hasil GDP diatas prediksi konsensus hanya 27%.
YoY %
7.0
6.5
Back on Track
6.0
Secara historikal dari tahun 2011 sampai saat ini,
kemungkinan
hasil
pengumuman
GDP
mengalahkan estimasi para ekonom hanya 27%.
Dan pada awal bulan ini, hasil GDP 2Q16
Indonesia mengalahkan estimasi para ekonom
sebesar 18bps (5.18% vs 5.00%), setelah
sebelumnya pada 1Q16 mencatat GDP YoY 16bps
di bawah perkiraan para ekonom (Grafik 1.0).
5.5
Hasil GDP 2Q16 yang lebih tinggi di atas
konsensus didorong oleh komponen belanja
pemerintah sebesar 6.28% YoY, dibandingkan
dengan 2.94% YoY pada 1Q16 (Grafik 2.1).
Kenaikan belanja pemerintah ini disumbangkan
belanja infrastruktur yang naik 30% YoY.
Sedangkan jika dilihat dari industri, sektor
financial service dan company service memiliki
pertumbuhan tertinggi (Tabel 2.3)
Setelah 2Q16 ditopang oleh belanja pemerintah,
untuk 2H16 diperkirakan akan ditopang oleh
private consumption. Penurunan inflasi dan suku
bunga bank Indonesia yang terjadi tahun ini
dapat mendorong jumlah belanja rumah tangga.
Disamping itu, kebijakan pemerintah seperti Tax
amnesty akan mendorong private consumption.
YoY % (Consensus)
GDP 2Q16 mengalahkan
ekspektasi consensus.
5.18
5.00
5.0
4.5
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
4.0
Sumber : Bloomberg, PT. CPAM
Our View
Ditengah
perbaikan
pertumbuhan
GDP
Indonesia, pertumbuhan trade balance di
Indonesia terus melemah. Keadaan ini membuat
jumlah perdagangan Indonesia per GDP turun
dari 50.8% di 2011 ke 40.4% di 2Q16. Ini
membuktikan, bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi di
Indonesia semakin ditopang oleh domestik,
sehingga efek perlambatan ekonomi dunia minim
di Indonesia. Ini membuat pasar saham maupun
obligasi makin menarik di mata asing.
RD CIMB-Principal Balanced Strategic Plus yang
memiliki porsi pada obligasi dan juga saham akan
diuntungkan dengan tren kenaikan pertumbuhan
GDP Indonesia. (RP)
Facts of the Week
RD CIMB-P Balanced
Strategic Plus
70%
Memiliki 70% porsi saham
dengan return sebesar
21.3% Ytd vs JCI 18.8% Ytd
(Per 9 Agustus 2016).
Sumber : Bloomberg, PT. CPAM
2
Grafik 2.1 GDP Growth by Expenditure
Tabel 2.3 GDP Growth by Industry (in percentage)
Kenaikan GDP dibandingkan kuartal sebelumnya didorong oleh
kenaikan belanja pemerintah dan private consumption.
Sektor financial service memiliki pertumbuhan tertinggi diikuti oleh
Telco dan company service.
In Percentage (%)
% YoY
1Q15
2Q15
1Q16
2Q16
GDP
4.73
4.66
4.91
5.18
Private consumption
5.01
4.97
4.94
5.04
Gov't Expenditure
2.91
2.61
2.94
6.28
Investment
4.63
3.88
5.57
5.06
Exports
-0.62
-0.01
-3.53
-2.73
Imports
-2.19
-6.97
-5.08
-3.01
Grafik 2.2 Indonesia CPI YoY (in percentage)
Tren inflasi rendah dapat mendorong private consumption.
9
8
7
6
5
4
Sumber: PT. Bahana Securities, Bloomberg, PT. CPAM
Jun-16
Jan-16
Aug-15
Mar-15
Oct-14
May-14
Dec-13
Jul-13
Feb-13
Sep-12
Apr-12
Nov-11
Jun-11
Jan-11
Aug-10
3
Industry (YoY %)
2Q16
1Q16
2Q15
GDP
5.18
4.91
4.66
Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry &
Fisheries
3.23
1.77
6.86
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industries
Electricity, Gas and Water Supplies
-0.72
4.74
6.24
-1.29
4.63
7.5
-5.2
4.11
0.76
Water Supply, Waste Treatment &
Recycle
3.31
4.84
7.76
Construction
Major Trade & Retail
Transportation and Communications
Supplies of accommodation, F & B
Information and Communication
Insurance and Financial Service
Real Estate
Company Services
Govt Adm, Defense, Social Security
Education Services
Health and Social Services
Other Services
6.21
4.07
6.81
4.92
8.47
13.51
4.46
7.57
4.74
5.58
6.59
7.88
7.87
4.03
7.9
5.62
8.3
9.26
4.87
8.14
5.17
5.64
8.7
7.92
5.35
1.7
5.92
3.75
9.66
2.63
5.03
7.64
6.29
11.71
7.48
8.06
3
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