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ABSTRAK
FR. HARYANTO, 2007. Dampak Instrumen Kebijakan Moneter Terhadap Perekonomian
Indonesia : Suatu Analisis Jalur Mekanisme Transmisi Moneter. (BONAR M. SINAGA,
sebagai Ketua, HERMANTO SIREGAR dan KOOSWARDONO MUDIKDJO sebagai
Anggota Komisi Pembimbing).
Penelitian ini dimaksudkan untuk mengeksplorasi jalur mekanisme transmisi
kebijakan moneter dalam sistem moneter Indonesia. Tujuan penelitian ini (1)
membangun model mekanisme moneter yang dapat mengintegrasikan berbagai
alternatif jalur-jalur mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter, (2) menganalisa pengaruh
perubahan instrumen kebijakan moneter dalam setiap jalur mekanisme transmisi
moneter terhadap kinerja perekonomian Indonesia, dan (3) mengkaji efektivitas jalurjalur mekanisme transmisi moneter terhadap kinerja perekonomian Indonesia.
Model makroekonometrika mekanisme transmisi moneter yang dibangun terdiri
dari 18 persamaan simultan dan 4 persamaan identitas dan simulasi dilakukan untuk
mengevaluasi 7 skenario jalur mekanisme transmisi transmisi moneter yang berbeda
yaitu jalur tingkat sukubunga, jalur neraca, jalur kredit, jalur ekspektasi, jalur nilai tukar
dan jalur langsung dalam 4 periode waktu yaitu periode sebelum krisis, krisis, transisi
dan peramalan. Instrumen kebijakan moneter sukubunga, cadangan minimum, money
supply, investasi, tingkat sukubunga sertifikat bank Indonesia, indeks harga konsumen
dan uang primer menjadi instrumen moneter yang memiliki pengaruh yang kuat
terhadap nilai tukar, tingkat inflasi dan pertumbuhan domestik bruto yang merupakan
indikator kinerja perekonomian Indonesia.
Hasil simulasi menunjukkan jalur mekanisme transmisi moneter terintegrasi
pada model mekanisme transmisi moneter yang dibangun dan dapat menganalisis
pengaruh instrumen kebijakan moneter pada jalur mekanisme transmisi moneter serta
mengkaji efektivitasnya terhadap kinerja perekonomian Indonesia. Penelitian ini
menyimpulkan bahwa mekanisme transmisi moneter jalur neraca (balance sheet
channel) dan jalur ekspektasi (expectation channel) memiliki peran penting dan paling
efektif dalam mempengaruhi kinerja perekonomian (nilai tukar, inflasi dan produk
domestik bruto Indonesia).
Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat memberikan kontribusi bagi otoritas moneter,
penelitian lanjutan dan ilmu pengetahuan yaitu : (1) membangun model mekanisme
transmisi moneter dalam bidang ekonomi moneter khususnya dalam hal jalur
mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter. (2) memberikan alternatif bagi pemerintah
khususnya Bank Indonesia sebagai otoritas moneter dalam memilih jalur mekanisme
transmisi yang efektif dalam mentransmisikan kebijakan moneter terhadap kinerja
perekonomian Indonesia. (3) memberikan kontribusi bagi pemerintah khususnya Bank
Indonesia sebagai otoritas moneter dalam kaitan merumuskan kebijakan moneter. (4)
untuk penelitian lebih lanjut dan perbaikan pemodelan dalam studi ekonomi moneter.
Kata kunci : jalur-jalur mekanisme transmsisi moneter, instrumen moneter dan indikator
makroekonomi.
ABSTRACT
FR. HARYANTO, 2007. Impact of The Monetary Policy Instrument on Indonesian
Economy : A Monetary Transmission Mechanism Channel Analysis. (BONAR M.
SINAGA as the Chairman, HERMANTO SIREGAR and KOOSWARDHONO MUDIKDJO
as Members of the Advisory Committee).
The purpose of this research is to explore the channel of transmission monetary
policy mechanism in Indonesian monetary system. The objectives of this research are
(1) to describe monetary transmission mechanism channel roles and intermediation
function of banking sector to Indonesian economic performance, (2) to analyze monetary
policy instrument changes in each monetary transmission mechanism channel that affect
Indonesian economic performance effectiveness, and (3) to evaluate monetary
transmission mechanism channel effectiffness to Indonesian performances economy.
Macroeconometric monetary transmission mechanism model that consists of 18
simultaneous equations and 4 identity equations and simulation conducted to evaluate 7
different scenarios of monetary transmission mechanism channels are interest rate
channel, balance sheet channel, bank lending channel, expectation channel, exchange
rate channel and direct monetary channel in 4 periods, the pre crisis, the crisis, the
transition and the forcast. Monetary policy instruments: interest rate, minimum reserve
requirement, money supply, investment, SBI rate, consumer price index and base
money become prime monetary variables which have strong influence to exchange rate,
inflation rate and product domestic bruto as the performances of the Indonesian
economy indicators.
Simulation output shows monetary transmission mechanism, integrated in
monetary transmission mechanism models which have been developed in this research
and can analyse the influence of monetary policy instruments in monetary transmission
channels and evaluate monetary transmission mechanism channels effectivity to
Indonesian economy performance. This research conclude that balance sheet and
expectation channels in the monetary transmission mechanism have very important and
the most effective roles in the influence of economic performance (exchange rate,
inflation rate and Indonesian product domestic bruto)
This research is expected to give contribution to monetary authority, further
research and knowledge, they are (1) to develop monetary transmission mechanism
model in monetary economy area especially in monetary transmission mechanism policy
channels, (2) to give alternatives for government especially Bank Indonesia as monetary
authority in choosing the most effective transmission mechanism to transmitted
monetary policy to Indonesian economic performance (3) to give contribution to
government especially Bank Indonesia in monetary policy creation and (4) to give
further, development research and the modelling improvement in monetary economic
studies.
Key words: monetary transmission mechanism channels, monetary instruments and
macroeconomic Indicators.
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